7 NFL Week 1 Overreactions: Bears to the Super Bowl and More
The first Sunday of the 2026 NFL season is officially in the books, and I’m sure everyone is reacting with total composure and logic. There are no temper tantrums or roster teardowns being hypothesized at all. If you can sense the sarcasm, you’ll love this temperature check on the biggest NFL Week 1 overreactions: I’m buying three of them (the Bears as a real threat, the Browns as a top-pick team and the Packers as a team in trouble), I think the Chargers panic and the Cardinals and Raiders playoff talk go too far, and Trevor Lawrence’s MVP start goes on the watch list.
There were some crazy performances (we see you, Chicago), some major letdowns and even an epic collapse. But what does it all mean, and how does it change how we bet on the NFL the rest of the way?
One of the biggest factors in NFL betting is balancing recency bias. No amount of data should swing us wildly, but we also need to realize when a new reality is staring us in the face. To help sort out what’s real, I put each take next to what the betting market actually did with that team’s Super Bowl price.
| Week 1 Overreaction | Week 1 Result | My Verdict | Super Bowl Odds (Before → Now) |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Bears are going to the Super Bowl | Won 59-37 at Carolina | Not a big overreaction | +2500 → +2200 |
| The Chargers are overrated | Lost 26-14 vs. Arizona | Overreaction | +1700 → +2200 |
| The Cardinals are a playoff contender | Won 26-14 at L.A. | Overreaction | +50000 → +30000 |
| The Raiders are a playoff contender, too | Won 27-13 vs. Miami | Overreaction | +15000 → +15000 |
| The Browns will get the No. 1 pick | Lost 34-10 at Jacksonville | Buying it | +25000 → +50000 |
| Trevor Lawrence is winning MVP | 4 TD, 150.6 rating vs. Cleveland | A name to monitor | Jaguars: +3000 → +2500 |
| The Packers are in serious trouble | Lost 39-22 at Minnesota | Buying it | +2200 → +2700 |
🕑 Odds as of: September 14, 2026. Super Bowl prices are the median price across seven sportsbooks (four regulated U.S. books plus three offshore books). “Before” is our odds archive’s snapshot at 7:06 p.m. ET on September 9, about an hour before the season opener, and “now” is our own pull at 1:37 p.m. ET on September 14. Week 2 lines are DraftKings prices from the same pull, and MVP odds are DraftKings prices from SI’s September 14 update. Futures and spreads move daily, so check the current number on our live NFL odds board before you bet.
The market moved a lot less than the takes did. Chicago’s price shortened and the Chargers and Packers drifted, but the books aren’t treating one Sunday as a verdict. The Los Angeles Rams lost 27-7 to San Francisco in Melbourne and are still the Super Bowl favorite at all seven books we track (+600 to +675), and the Raiders’ price didn’t budge at all.
1. The Chicago Bears Are Going to the Super Bowl
I don’t know if the Bears are Super Bowl bound, but I don’t think this take is a big overreaction, either. Chicago opened the season with a wild 59-37 thumping of the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, the highest-scoring season opener in NFL history.
Ben Johnson said this summer that he wants the highest-scoring offense in NFL history, which means topping the 2013 Denver Broncos’ 37.9 points per game. It’s one week, but his offense is well on its way, and Caleb Williams went off: 21 of 29 for 269 yards and two touchdowns through the air, plus 65 yards and two more scores on the ground.
Chicago piled up 552 total yards and 26 first downs, and the records it set were team records rather than individual ones:
- 59 points: the most the Bears have ever scored in a season opener, and their fourth-most in any game.
- Six rushing touchdowns: tied the franchise record for a single game.
- 96 combined points: the most in any NFL season opener.
The crazy part? Chicago did its heaviest lifting on the ground, running for 291 yards (D’Andre Swift had 124 and three scores, Kyle Monangai 100 and one), and it hardly used two of its best pass catchers. Rome Odunze, listed as questionable with a calf injury, caught two passes, and Colston Loveland didn’t catch any. That is scary, and it also seems the Bears are collectively agreeing to take the path to the most production rather than force square pegs into round holes.
The Bears have loudly announced that they are ready to crush skulls in 2026, and they appear equipped to match wits with just about anyone. The one problem? Their defense still doesn’t look very Super Bowl-worthy after giving up 37 points to Carolina. That may hold them back down the road, but for now this offense looks borderline unstoppable.
The market is more cautious than the hype. Chicago’s Super Bowl price shortened from +2500 to +2200, which moves the Bears from 3.2% to 3.9% of the board once the vig comes out and still ranks them only 12th, while Caleb Williams’ MVP odds jumped from +1200 to +700 at DraftKings, per SI. For the rest of the futures picture, see our Super Bowl 2027 odds breakdown.
2. The Los Angeles Chargers Are Overrated
Calling the Chargers overrated after one game is an overreaction, although their offensive line gives the take some teeth. I am guilty of being among the NFL pundits who thought the arrival of offensive genius Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator would unlock the Los Angeles Chargers, and at least for one week, that very much was not the case: they lost 26-14 at home to Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite, the heaviest favorite on the Week 1 board.
If you were to look at the Bolts’ Week 1 loss and say something definitive like they won’t make the NFL playoffs, I might disagree. That appears to be a much-improved Arizona team (as I predicted it would be when I took the Cardinals +10.5 in my NFL Week 1 picks), and L.A. still has time to figure things out.
The upside is there, and the main issue was horrific offensive line play. The game stayed close into the fourth quarter (Arizona led just 16-14 after three) thanks to a solid effort from Justin Herbert, but his pass protection eventually broke down:
- Pressure: Herbert was sacked three times and finished 17 of 27 for 209 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
- Mistakes: the offense turned the ball over twice (an Omarion Hampton fumble and a fourth-quarter Herbert interception) and went 0 for 3 on fourth down.
- No ground game: the Chargers ran for 81 yards on 21 carries, just 3.9 per attempt.
L.A. will definitely suffer in the competitive AFC West if it doesn’t fix the O-line. However, Herbert still heads a very talented offense that could bounce back as quickly as Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders, and DraftKings expects exactly that, making the Chargers 7-point home favorites.
The futures market was less forgiving. The Chargers’ Super Bowl price drifted from +1700 to +2200, which dropped them from sixth on the board to 14th, and Herbert’s MVP odds slid from +1000 to +2200 at DraftKings, per SI.
3. The Arizona Cardinals Are a Playoff Contender
The Cardinals are clearly better than we thought, but a playoff run is still a stretch. Arizona was dead last on the Super Bowl board before Week 1, and after a 26-14 win over the heaviest favorite of the week, we have to at least consider whether a playoff run is viable.
I’m going to say that they actually could make a run at the No. 7 seed. There is almost no way they are going to fight their way up to the top of the stacked NFC West: the Rams will rebound from their 27-7 loss to San Francisco, and you still have the 49ers and the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks to contend with.
But is there a world where all four NFC West teams make the playoffs? It sounds crazy, but it’s likely that only one NFC South team gets in (that division went 0-4 in Week 1), and the NFC East doesn’t look too great at the moment, either, after two close division games.
Arizona deserves our attention. The team upgraded immensely at head coach with Mike LaFleur, who became the first Cardinals coach to win his debut since Don Coryell in 1973, and No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love, who scored on the opening drive, gives them a more balanced offense than they had during last season’s 3-14 finish.
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What the Market Did With Arizona
One upset moved the Cardinals off the bottom of the Super Bowl board, from +50000 to +30000, and no further. DraftKings has them as 4.5-point home underdogs against Seattle in Week 2, so the books are treating Sunday as a pleasant surprise rather than a new identity.
All that said, I think the math doesn’t math here. Arizona is definitely better and they’ll be competitive, but picking them in a stacked division is tough. They will hang around and be on the cusp of a playoff run, but I don’t see them ending the year inside the top seven despite the clear jump.
4. The Las Vegas Raiders Are a Playoff Contender, Too
The Raiders are clearly better, but I’m not ready to call them a playoff team. This is why an NFL overreactions breakdown makes sense: the Raiders beat a bad Dolphins team 27-13 and suddenly Las Vegas fans are thinking playoffs.
Las Vegas was always going to be better this year than it was during last season’s 3-14 finish. New head coach Klint Kubiak all but ensured that, while the franchise invested in quarterback upgrades (Kirk Cousins starts, with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza behind him) and upgraded the offensive line, headlined by center Tyler Linderbaum.
It all starts up front, and a beefed-up line helped Ashton Jeanty top 100 rushing yards. The stud the Raiders drafted near the top of last year’s draft was featured heavily, and he responded with 29 total touches, 147 total yards and two scores, both of them on catches.
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The Market Isn’t Buying It Either
The Raiders were +15000 to win the Super Bowl before Week 1, and they are still +15000 after beating Miami, 27th on the board. DraftKings has them as 7-point underdogs at the Chargers in Week 2.
Can Jeanty carry the Raiders to the playoffs? Probably not. The AFC West still looks brutal, Brock Bowers missed the opener after a procedure on his knee and doesn’t have a firm return date, and beating the Miami Dolphins doesn’t punch your postseason ticket.
But much like the Cardinals, the Raiders are clearly better. That makes for a team rooted in fundamentally strong football, and it should produce a lot of competitive games. Las Vegas will be pesky and win more games than we saw in 2025, but a playoff run still feels like a reach.
5. The Cleveland Browns Will Get the No. 1 Pick in the 2027 NFL Draft
I’m buying this one, because Cleveland looks like a team headed for the top of the draft. Deshaun Watson was dreadful in a 34-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Browns didn’t score a touchdown until 1:52 remained, when they trailed 34-3.
The matchup was never likely to go Cleveland’s way, but Watson ate five sacks, threw an interception on the opening drive, and the offense lost two turnovers in all. His box score (16 of 22 for 205 yards) looks a lot better than the game did, which is how he ended up with a 34.2 QBR.
It wasn’t shocking that the Browns lost to a Jaguars team coming off a 13-4 AFC South title, but the fact that they put up zero fight reminded us of their sad state of affairs. Todd Monken will almost definitely end up being a one-and-done hire, Watson is here just to make sure the ship actually sinks, and this franchise is destined to once again pick at the top of the draft. The betting market has moved the same way:
- Super Bowl odds: Cleveland drifted from +25000 to +50000, 31st of 32 teams (only Miami is longer).
- Week 2 line: the Browns are 8.5-point underdogs at Tampa Bay at DraftKings.
- Draft capital: Cleveland owns its own 2027 first-round pick plus the Rams’ from the Myles Garrett trade.
The good news? The incoming quarterback class has real star power at the top, with Oregon’s Dante Moore No. 1 and Texas’ Arch Manning No. 4 on CBS Sports’ preseason big board. Something tells me Arch Manning and his camp will do everything to keep him out of Ohio, though (and he could simply stay at Texas for another year). Our 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds breakdown tracks how that race is priced.
6. Trevor Lawrence Is Winning the 2026 NFL MVP Award
Lawrence isn’t a lock to win the NFL MVP award, but his Week 1 explosion cemented him as a name to monitor. Week 1 was filled with more scoring than expected, and the Jacksonville Jaguars put together one of the cleaner offensive games of the weekend.
Despite what looked to be a tough matchup against a Browns defense that ranked fourth in yards allowed last season (albeit without Myles Garrett, who is now a Ram), Lawrence seemed unbothered en route to 245 passing yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. T-Law was borderline perfect, completing 18 of 23 passes (78%) for a 93.4 QBR and a career-high 150.6 passer rating, the best of any quarterback through Sunday. He also delivered this gem of a throw:
THIS THROW BY TREVOR LAWRENCE IS ONE OF THE CRAZIEST THROWS YOU WILL EVER SEE.
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) September 14, 2026
This is not normal. Not at all. pic.twitter.com/pMWB4TEdYX
It’s just one game, but Lawrence broke out last year and finished fifth in the MVP voting as one of five finalists. With a massive start to his 2026 campaign (and in the face of a suboptimal matchup), it appears he’s picked up right where he left off.
He was a solid sleeper pick entering the year, and the market noticed: his MVP odds moved from +2500 to +1500 at DraftKings after the game, per SI, while Josh Allen stayed the favorite at +500. If Lawrence can dominate like this against a solid defense, just imagine the numbers he may put up the rest of the way.
7. The Green Bay Packers Are in Serious Trouble
This is another Week 1 NFL overreaction that I buy into: the Packers are in real trouble after blowing a fourth-quarter lead in a 39-22 loss at Minnesota. There were some good takeaways from Green Bay’s first game, as Jordan Love had some nice moments (387 passing yards), their wide receivers created explosive plays (Christian Watson scored from 81 yards out) and the defense looked strong for three quarters.
The problems stem from poor coaching, a leaky offensive line (Minnesota hit Love 15 times and sacked him four times), an inability to run effectively (66 yards on 21 carries) and a soft overall mentality. Naturally, it already has fans calling for head coach Matt LaFleur’s head:
TRUE or FALSE:
— SleeperPackers (@SleeperPackers) September 14, 2026
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur should be on the hot seat after a 6 game losing streak pic.twitter.com/FO9az2nznk
Green Bay has now lost six consecutive games, a skid that started with the December loss in Denver in which star pass rusher Micah Parsons tore his ACL. They went from looking like a legit title threat at 9-3-1 to a pushover in an instant, and several brutal collapses have followed, including January’s Wild Card loss in Chicago after leading 21-3 at halftime.
The Packers led 22-10 in the third quarter of this one, and they were up 22-17 with just over six minutes to go against the rival Minnesota Vikings, who were playing backup Carson Wentz after Kyler Murray left with a first-quarter concussion. Then the floor gave out:
- The go-ahead score: Aaron Jones ran in a touchdown and Minnesota added a two-point conversion to take a 25-22 lead.
- The strip-sack: Andrew Van Ginkel recovered a Love fumble at the Green Bay 1, and Jordan Mason punched it in from a yard out.
- The interception: Love threw a pick on the next possession, and Justin Jefferson caught a 9-yard touchdown on the short field that followed.
A final score of 39-22 displayed a lack of toughness, poor execution and weak mental fortitude. It’s just one loss, but that defeat came in disastrous fashion to a rival in a loaded NFC North, and suddenly a preseason Super Bowl contender is the only winless team in its division. Green Bay heads into Week 2 with serious offensive concerns, and its Super Bowl price has drifted from +2200 to +2700.
A Week 2 loss to the New York Jets would drop the green and gold to 0-2, a hole that very few teams climb out of.
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How Often Do 0-2 Teams Recover?
Since 1990, only 35 of 288 teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs (12.2%), according to NFL.com’s research through the 2024 season. It does happen: last season’s Bears lost their first two games, won the NFC North and then knocked Green Bay out in the Wild Card round.
How Should Bettors React to NFL Week 1 Overreactions?
Carefully. Good teams that endure brutal opening weeks often find a way to bounce back, so don’t overreact to one Sunday, and make sure the price still makes sense before you bet on any of these takes. That’s why the Packers and Chargers are two teams bettors should be interested in backing going into the second week of the season. However, sometimes the writing is already on the wall.
Green Bay and L.A. share two key similarities: they entered 2026 with lofty expectations, and they apparently have a lot of work to do to correct offensive line woes. If they can’t, they could struggle moving forward and end up being two of the biggest disappointments of the year.
DraftKings has these Week 2 lines for every team in this piece as of September 14:
| Week 2 Game (Sun., Sept. 20) | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers at Jets (1 p.m. ET) | Packers -4.5 (-108) | GB -225 / NYJ +185 | 44.5 |
| Vikings at Bears (1 p.m. ET) | Bears -5.5 (-110) | CHI -245 / MIN +200 | 49.5 |
| Browns at Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET) | Buccaneers -8.5 (-110) | TB -375 / CLE +295 | 40.5 |
| Raiders at Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET) | Chargers -7 (-105) | LAC -310 / LV +250 | 43.5 |
| Jaguars at Broncos (4:05 p.m. ET) | Broncos -2.5 (-118) | DEN -148 / JAX +124 | 44.5 |
| Seahawks at Cardinals (4:25 p.m. ET) | Seahawks -4.5 (-105) | SEA -225 / ARI +185 | 41.5 |
The market already expects both teams to bounce back, with Green Bay a 4.5-point road favorite and the Chargers laying a touchdown at home, so you aren’t getting a discount for Week 1. What is a bummer for those fan bases could be an opportunity for bettors who think the problems are real: you could bet on either team to fall short of its win total, lose its next game or miss the playoffs entirely.
Alternatively, now could be the time for a Bears division, playoff or even Super Bowl bet, though Chicago’s Super Bowl price has already come down from +2500 to +2200. And if you’re feeling extra ambitious, you can react to big Week 1 wins and back the Raiders and Cardinals to exceed their projected win totals or even make the playoffs. My NFL win totals you’re sleeping on had the Bears Over 9.5 and the Browns Under 5.5 before the season, and Week 1 did nothing to change my mind.
Not every NFL overreaction needs to be met with an immediate bet. Just make sure you’re digesting all possible information and assessing whether what you’re seeing is the real deal or not.
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NFL Week 1 Overreactions FAQ
Quick answers to the questions bettors are asking after Week 1, with every price as it stood on September 14, 2026. Lines move, so treat the numbers as a starting point.
Are the Bears actually a Super Bowl contender after scoring 59 points in Week 1?
They look like a real threat, but the betting market is more cautious than the hype. Chicago beat Carolina 59-37 on the road with 552 yards and six rushing touchdowns, the most points the Bears have ever scored in a season opener. Their Super Bowl price only moved from +2500 to +2200 in the seven-book consensus we track, which still ranks them 12th, and their defense allowed 37 points.
How much did Super Bowl odds change after NFL Week 1?
Less than the reactions did. In the seven-book consensus we track, the Chargers drifted from +1700 to +2200 after their home loss to Arizona, the Packers went from +2200 to +2700, the Bears shortened from +2500 to +2200, and the Raiders stayed put at +15000. The Rams remained the favorite at every book despite losing 27-7 to San Francisco.
How often do NFL teams that start 0-2 still make the playoffs?
Not often: since 1990, only 35 of 288 teams that started 0-2 reached the playoffs, a 12.2% rate, according to NFL.com’s research through the 2024 season. It does happen, though. The 2025 Chicago Bears lost their first two games, finished 11-6, won the NFC North and beat Green Bay in the Wild Card round.
Why did the Cardinals beat the Chargers as such a big underdog?
Arizona won up front and protected the ball. The Cardinals sacked Justin Herbert three times, forced two turnovers and held the Chargers to 81 rushing yards, while Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 yards without an interception in a 26-14 win. Los Angeles closed as a 9.5-point favorite, the heaviest on the Week 1 board, and Mike LaFleur became the first Cardinals coach to win his debut since 1973.
Is Trevor Lawrence a real MVP candidate after his Week 1 game?
Yes, he belongs in the conversation, though he isn’t the favorite. Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 245 yards and four touchdowns against Cleveland, and his 150.6 passer rating was the best of any quarterback through Sunday. DraftKings moved his MVP odds from +2500 to +1500, per SI, with Josh Allen still the favorite at +500, and Lawrence finished fifth in last season’s MVP voting.
Should I bet on the Packers or Chargers to bounce back in Week 2?
It’s a reasonable spot to consider, but the market already expects both teams to win. As of September 14, DraftKings has Green Bay as a 4.5-point favorite at the New York Jets and the Chargers as 7-point home favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams have offensive line problems to fix, so treat any bet as entertainment and only risk what you can afford to lose.
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