NFL Preseason DFS Strategy: How to Build Winning Lineups
NFL Preseason games signal the return of professional football. They also create shocking leverage opportunities and give you a chance to cash in on contests at platforms like DraftKings.
This isn’t a DFS genre that is for the faint of heart. Your NFL Preseason DFS strategy can be flawless and things may still not go your way. Touchdown variance is even worse than it is in regular NFL DFS, playing time is tough to predict, coaches will flat out lie about usage, and some players you thought were playing won’t even be active.
Is it a total nightmare DFS players should probably just avoid? Perhaps, but it’s also a cash cow that can build your NFL DFS bankroll if you play your cards right. You just need the right approach and to be realistic.
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The Golden Rule of Preseason DFS
Prioritize projected playing time over name recognition. A fourth-string running back who plays three quarters will almost always out-score a star who sits after one series.
Below is what makes NFL Preseason DFS different from the regular season game, the five things that matter most, and how to build winning NFL DFS Preseason lineups.
Why NFL Preseason DFS Is Different
Rule number one with NFL Preseason DFS is that you can’t approach it the same way you would with regular season DFS. The framework is entirely different, and treating an August slate like a September one is the fastest way to burn your bankroll.
Here’s a quick-hitting rundown of what changes:
- Playing time is sporadic
- Coaches don’t care about winning
- Teams aren’t revealing all of their tricks
To put it bluntly, you can’t fully trust any player’s field time. Coaches and players may say one thing, but ultimately things can and will change. If a player suffers even a minor injury before or during the game, they’re almost definitely not playing after that point.
Nobody cares about the outcome of NFL Preseason games, either. The coaches aren’t going to run their system or manage games in the same way, and teams will gladly run out the clock in lieu of trying to tie a close game late. Most teams are running vanilla concepts and not showcasing their players like they would during the regular season.
All of this puts opportunity at the forefront, and there is some level of hoping and praying that goes into player availability. Everyone faces the same instability, however, which makes it extremely easy to create leverage points when so-called ‘safe’ NFL DFS Preseason picks end up being chalky.
The Five Things That Matter Most in NFL Preseason DFS
These five factors decide the majority of NFL preseason DFS slates. Master them and you will consistently field sharper lineups than the rest of the pool.
1. Expected Playing Time
I know I said you can’t really trust what coaches and players say about playing time, and that’s true. However, if you are going to play NFL Preseason DFS, there has to be some faith you put in beat reporters and team quotes. You should enter every slate knowing that there is natural fragility behind any ‘news’ involved with NFL Preseason games, but you still need to research expected playing time.
Minutes are currency in most DFS sports, but for NFL DFS, snaps and usage are the name of the game. For NFL Preseason games, you’re looking for series or quarter counts. Most coaches will reveal to some extent how long they intend to play their starters.
That can range from one series to several quarters. Knowing which players are the safest bets to be on the field longer is what can separate you from the field, especially when you can target options like this that aren’t popular.
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Opportunity Over Ability
NFL Preseason DFS is the rare spot where opportunity trumps actual ability or player salary. Volume of snaps beats name value almost every time.
2. Quarterback Rotations
Quarterback is the most important position to research in preseason DFS. They control the entire offense and have a huge say in how their team performs, plus you can usually align other offensive players with their playing time.
This is especially the case with star players. If Andy Reid says Patrick Mahomes will play an entire half, then it’s fairly safe to assume guys like Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce will accompany him for as long as he’s out there.
Quarterback rotations get more interesting when starting quarterbacks sit out the game completely. Then you get into situations where maybe just two quarterbacks split up an entire game. Whatever the case, you’re putting a greater emphasis on whichever QB is scheduled to see the field for longer, so once you know who is playing and for how long, you can start putting your scouting to work and assess which player offers the most upside.
3. NFL Beat Writer Reports
It’s crucial to have a rolodex of Twitter accounts or other social media news sources to follow to get playing time information. NFL beat report writers are your best bet for concrete information, as they have insider access to players and coaches. They should be able to tell you if a player has been missing practice time, who the coaches want to see the most, and how much key players might play.
You’ll want to monitor these accounts for the following:
- Playing time
- Training camp standouts
- Injury updates
- Roster battles
- Coach insight
- Practice observations
Perhaps one of the biggest edges in NFL Preseason DFS is the roster battle and training camp aspect. This gets you access to players you may not even know about, while position battles can give way to an entire group of players seeing the field longer than others.
In addition to beat writers, scanning the official NFL injury report and following bigger DFS and fantasy accounts like Underdog can go a long way in making sure you have the necessary information to build winning NFL Preseason DFS lineups.
4. Depth Charts Matter More Than Projections
NFL Preseason DFS projections aren’t completely worthless. Some sites will map out a player’s role, talent, and per-game production, then attach it to their expected playing time. The actual projection they land on won’t be very reliable, but it’s still a visual representation of that player holding more value compared to other options, and modern DFS research tools can help you sort through it faster.
Even more important than that, though, is keeping an eye on NFL depth charts and their fluidity. A rookie listed fourth may actually play the most. A veteran backup may be held out entirely. Practice squad call-ups and injuries can completely reshape expected workloads.
Always combine depth charts with recent reports and coaching comments instead of relying on projections alone.
5. Late News
This is where those beat writers can come in extra handy. A good chunk of the data that leads you to your top NFL Preseason DFS picks will come from news throughout the week, but there’s always late-breaking news that can impact a slate.
NFL Preseason news can change in the blink of an eye. Sometimes it comes late and you’re left with a scratched player getting zero, but the goal is to stay on top of the news feed to avoid that at all costs. Here’s what you’re looking for leading up to the game:
- Inactive lists
- Warm-up reports
- Last-minute coaching comments
- Beat writer updates
- Unexpected scratches
NFL Preseason DFS, much like several other DFS genres, is not a ‘set and leave’ sport. You have to be on your toes, ready to make massive changes to your lineup before the slate locks.
The best Preseason NFL DFS players stay near their phone or computer, are flexible, and are free to make adjustments when new information presents itself. Sometimes NFL Preseason DFS isn’t about making the best picks. It’s often about simply not having slate-ruining plays weighing your roster down.
Position-by-Position NFL Preseason DFS Strategy
Every position carries its own preseason quirks. Here is how to attack each roster slot when snaps, not stars, drive the scoring.
Quarterback
Prioritizing mobile quarterbacks who offer rushing upside is still a chief goal, but the first thing to look for is playing time. Ideally any quarterback you roster is guaranteed at least a full quarter of action, and the goal should be to roster quarterbacks who appear to be locked in for an entire half of action, if not more.
Target teams that are sitting their usual starter (or handing him a long leash) and only have one or two active quarterbacks they intend to play. If you are choosing between two QBs who are splitting the workload right down the middle, lean into the one who is more talented and/or offers rushing ability.
Running Back
The running back position is one where you get hit on virtually every play. Save for a team’s dress rehearsal, most starting RBs are not going to get a ton of field time.
Instead of focusing on the top running backs in the league, you should be focusing on their direct backup, or targeting fringe players who are either in a position battle or are simply trying to make the final roster.
Reports on playing time can cut the field down for you, but teams usually carry several running backs. Focus on teams with clear playing time tiers, obvious position battles, or precious few bodies available.
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The RB Cheat Code
The cheat code for rostering winning NFL Preseason DFS running backs is finding quality young players who are on a roster battling injuries.
In general, goal-line work and targets are not easy to predict in NFL Preseason games, so opportunity and playing time competition has to be at the forefront of your decision-making. You can still keep tabs on snap shares and touches, but the actual situation each RB is walking into tends to matter more than previous stats.
Wide Receiver
Wide receivers tend to get a longer leash than running backs. They can be even more volatile depending on how they’re used, but if you align them with the quarterback they’re expected to play with, assessing their value should be fairly easy.
The goal is to eye wide receivers that will play at least a couple of quarters, if not longer. This doesn’t mean you can never play superstars, but the top NFL receivers usually don’t hit the field during the Preseason, or they are simply severely limited.
It’s a better bet to target wide receivers who are looking at a lot of playing time or are in competition for a role, so rookies or young players battling for their NFL existence are a great place to start. This is one position where tracking targets and snap count can help you from week-to-week.
Tight End
Tight ends tend to be the most volatile position, as the best tight ends won’t play very much, and teams tend to carry several of them.
Much like wide receiver, prioritize news, targets, and snap count to help you pick who you want to roster. The quickest path to a viable TE option is one that doesn’t have a lot of competition for playing time, however.
When choosing a tight end, focus on rookies or young players battling for a roster spot, and also put an extra emphasis on athletic options with proven pass-catching ability in college.
Defense
You have to roster a team defense in NFL Preseason DFS, and it’s a total crapshoot. Despite this being the most volatile and unpredictable position, it’s probably one of the most important ones to get right.
When choosing a defense to roster, you’ll want to assess talent on the field, as well as their matchup. Ideally you’re rostering a defense capable of generating a pass rush (sacks) and forcing turnovers, but the safest play is to use a defense against a bad offense.
Another option is to roster the defense that faces a chalky offensive option. For example, if everyone is playing Philadelphia Eagles rookie quarterback Cole Payton, perhaps rostering the Baltimore Ravens creates extra leverage that can bump you up the standings in tournaments.
How to Build Winning NFL Preseason DFS Lineups
Building a winning NFL preseason DFS lineup comes down to four repeatable principles. Prioritize projected snaps, stack correlated players, stay open to unknown names, and keep monitoring news right up until lineups lock.
| Strategy | Why It Works |
|---|---|
| Prioritize projected snaps | More opportunities create more fantasy points. |
| Stack quarterbacks with receivers expected to play together | Correlated production raises lineup ceilings. |
| Don’t avoid unknown players | Opportunity matters far more than reputation. |
| Monitor news until lock | Playing time changes frequently during the preseason. |
Common NFL Preseason DFS Mistakes to Avoid
It’s easy to make mistakes when you play a DFS sport that has so much volatility baked into it. The key is to avoid these common traps that can take a good NFL Preseason DFS lineup and turn it into a bad one in a hurry.
- Playing only star players – The top stars and most starters don’t play much (if any) of NFL Preseason games.
- Ignoring injury news – At a bare minimum you should be paying attention to NFL injury reports, which will tell you key players who are out or unlikely to play.
- Ignoring social media – Some information won’t be on injury reports. You need updated news, insight, rumors, and projections from beat reporters to finalize your lineups.
- Playing aggressively – This is not the sport to unload your bankroll on. Your lineup might be awesome, but playing big-money NFL Preseason DFS contests is a quick way to lose.
- Buying into recency bias – Box-score watching is one of the DFS stats that matter less than you think, especially when player availability and role can be so fluid.
As discussed, the big-name NFL stars are some of the worst NFL Preseason DFS picks you can make. Unless they are guaranteed ample playing time, they can be safely avoided in most contests you enter.
You will want to pay attention to injury reports, but also go the extra mile and track beat writers and social media buzz. Bypassing this information removes quotes, position battle progress, training camp highlights, and so much more that could impact your final lineup.
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Protect Your Bankroll
Preseason football is one of the highest-variance DFS formats there is. Keep entry fees small and your exposure light. This is not the slate to fire off your whole balance chasing one big score.
It’s fun to play big DFS contests, but you should temper your expectations with a format like Preseason NFL DFS. If you do play a big-money contest, limit your overall exposure and lean toward smaller-field contests so you’re not digging too deep into your bankroll.
Lastly, paying attention to old stats doesn’t do you much good here. Per-game averages, college production, and a player’s previous game can all be useful to an extent, but they don’t necessarily make anything predictive. Successful preseason DFS players focus on projected opportunity instead of yesterday’s fantasy points, and they prioritize not falling for the mistakes above.
NFL Preseason DFS Checklist
NFL DFS Preseason is a lot more hectic than you probably think. Some slates are drawn out for you and won’t be too complicated, while others will be total nightmares.
No matter how a slate breaks down, a helpful checklist could do wonders for your chances of profiting. Before finalizing your lineups, ask yourself the following:
- Have I confirmed quarterback rotations?
- Do I know which starters are expected to play?
- Have I checked beat writer updates?
- Have I reviewed the latest injury report?
- Are there any important roster battles?
- Have inactive players been announced?
- Could weather impact the game?
- Have any late depth chart changes created new value?
- Am I correlating my lineup?
- Am I maximizing leverage opportunities?
Running through this checklist before lock can help eliminate avoidable mistakes while uncovering value the field may overlook.
That’s a lot of questions, to be sure. However, not asking yourself these questions means you may be ill-prepared and setting yourself up for disaster.
Build Around Opportunity in NFL Preseason DFS, Not Talent
The moral of the story in NFL Preseason DFS is to prioritize players who are going to play a lot. Once you have a field of players you know should get ample opportunities, you can then begin to separate them based on talent level, skill-set, and ownership.
By prioritizing projected playing time, researching quarterback rotations, monitoring beat writers, following late news, and understanding roster battles, you’ll consistently put yourself in a better position than players relying solely on projections or familiar names.
Each NFL DFS Preseason slate is different from the next, but the formula for success never changes. Use this same NFL Preseason DFS strategy and simply adjust based on the teams and player pool at hand. The main differentiator from there is the information you can soak up, and how you choose to use it in relation to the field. Once the regular season starts and real usage data exists, that same opportunity-first approach sharpens into four NFL DFS metrics worth checking every week.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Still weighing how to attack an NFL preseason slate? Here are quick answers to the questions DFS players ask most before lineups lock.
What is the best NFL Preseason DFS strategy?
The best NFL Preseason DFS strategy focuses on projected playing time above everything else. Players expected to receive the most snaps generally provide the best combination of floor and tournament-winning upside.
Should you roster NFL starters in Preseason DFS?
Probably not, but never say never. Most established starters play limited snaps or sit entirely, which makes backups and players competing for roster spots much stronger DFS options. That said, when a team plans to give a top player a long leash, adjust accordingly.
Why are quarterbacks so important in Preseason DFS?
Quarterbacks touch the ball on every offensive play, and those expected to play multiple quarters often carry the highest ceilings on the slate. It is the rare ‘safe’ spot in NFL Preseason DFS, so it pays to hit it and maximize your stacking possibilities.
Where can I find NFL Preseason playing time projections?
The best information comes from beat reporters, coaching press conferences, practice observations, injury reports, and trusted NFL preseason DFS analysis published leading up to kickoff. Twitter accounts like Underdog NFL are a great place to start.
Are Preseason NFL DFS contests more skill-based than regular season contests?
Not necessarily. Information is king, and step one is making sure you are not rostering players who will be inactive or limited. The skill comes from combining player talent and role research with leverage points in GPPs.
