5 NFL Player Prop Bets We Love for the 2026 Season
NFL training camps are officially here, which means the regular season will arrive before you know it. Now is the perfect time to cash in on your projecting skills, because DraftKings and other sportsbooks have already pushed out a full board of season-long NFL player prop bets. Five of them stand out right now: Bo Nix over 3,500 passing yards, Josh Allen 25+ passing touchdowns, Emeka Egbuka over 1,000 receiving yards, Mike Evans 8+ receiving touchdowns, and Chase Brown over 1,000 rushing yards.
Season-long props are one of the softest corners of the board right now. Books have to price a full 17-game workload months before anyone knows who stays healthy, who wins a job in August, and which offense actually changes shape under a new play-caller. Some of the early lines that have dropped are criminally low.
The question is whether you can see the value and want to commit cash to a bet that will not settle until after the 2026 season ends. If you are game, here are five that look worth the wait, plus three more that just missed the cut. If you want the mechanics first, our guide to NFL player props covers how these markets are priced and settled.
Best NFL Player Props at a Glance
Here are the five season-long props, the number attached to each, and how strongly I feel about it. The confidence rating is an editorial read on the argument, not a probability estimate.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix, DEN | Passing Yards | Over 3,500 (-110) | 5/5 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | Passing TDs | 25+ (-110) | 5/5 |
| Emeka Egbuka, TB | Receiving Yards | Over 1,000 (+110) | 5/5 |
| Mike Evans, SF | Receiving TDs | 8+ (+140) | 4/5 |
| Chase Brown, CIN | Rushing Yards | Over 1,000 (+175) | 5/5 |
All prices are DraftKings numbers as of July 30, 2026. Season-long props move all summer as camp news lands, so check the current number before you bet anything below.
Bo Nix Over 3,500 Passing Yards (-110)
Bo Nix has cleared 3,500 passing yards in both of his NFL seasons, and he is walking into 2026 with more volume and better weapons than he has ever had. That combination is why this is the one I would bet first.
The Denver Broncos almost reached the Super Bowl last year. They went 14-3, took the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and might have won the whole thing if Nix had not fractured his right ankle on the second-to-last play of overtime in the divisional-round win over Buffalo. He had season-ending surgery, Jarrett Stidham started the AFC Championship Game, and Denver lost 10-7 at home to New England.
Nix is back to full strength and has said he could be full go. He has also posted solid numbers under center in each of his first two years, clearing this prop line both times.
- 2025: 3,931 yards, 25 touchdowns
- 2024: 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns (both Broncos rookie records)
The past does not predict the future, but Denver’s system sets up as pass-happy. Nix led the entire NFL with 612 pass attempts last season. Worth naming honestly: some of that lean came after running back J.K. Dobbins went down for the year in Week 10 and Sean Payton simply asked Nix to throw more.
Nix was not overly efficient with all that volume, but the volume itself was real, and Denver invested in the passing game rather than backing away from it. The Broncos sent their 2026 first-round pick to Miami for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who caught 64 passes for 910 yards and six scores last year.
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Why volume matters more than efficiency here
A passing-yards prop is a workload bet before it is a talent bet. Nix threw more passes than any quarterback in football last year and still only landed at 3,931 yards, which tells you the yards-per-attempt was ordinary. Keep the attempts and upgrade the receiver room and the same ordinary efficiency clears 3,500 comfortably.
That tells me Nix is not going to cut back the volume by much, if at all. With a better supporting cast, he is more likely to push for his first 4,000-yard campaign than to finish below 3,500.
Josh Allen 25+ Passing Touchdowns (-110)
Josh Allen has thrown at least 25 touchdown passes in each of the last six seasons, and two offseason changes point him back toward the high end of that range. At -110 you are getting a coin-flip price on something he has done six years running.
Allen throwing for 25 or more touchdowns is a tradition unlike any other. In all seriousness, the former MVP is once again the betting favorite to win the award, and his yearly stat-stuffing is a big reason why. He has cleared this line comfortably for most of that run.
| Season | Passing TDs | Result vs. 25+ |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 37 | Clear |
| 2021 | 36 | Clear |
| 2022 | 35 | Clear |
| 2023 | 29 | Clear |
| 2024 | 28 | Clear |
| 2025 | 25 | Cleared on the number |
Last year was the first time in that run where he genuinely threatened to finish under. It is always possible he hangs around that area again, but the likelier read is that a couple of big changes push the number back up.
Two changes in particular make Allen a strong bet here. Joe Brady, his offensive coordinator, was promoted to head coach and is still calling the plays. The Buffalo Bills also upgraded his weaponry by trading a second-round pick to Chicago for wide receiver D.J. Moore.
Moore alone gives Buffalo’s passing game a boost, while Brady now sets the tone for the whole operation. That should mean a more aggressive attack, which pushes Allen closer to his MVP-level production and further from what he did a year ago. For more on how Buffalo’s season projects overall, we broke down the NFL win totals worth a second look earlier this month.
Emeka Egbuka Over 1,000 Receiving Yards (+110)
Emeka Egbuka finished 62 yards short of 1,000 as a rookie, and the receiver who was soaking up targets ahead of him just left for San Francisco. Getting plus money on him repeating that production with a bigger role is the best value on this list.
We already saw Egbuka’s ceiling during his first season, when he burst out of the gates with five touchdowns and over 400 receiving yards in his first five games as a pro. He is the only player in NFL history to open a career with 25-plus receptions, 400-plus receiving yards, and five-plus receiving touchdowns through five games.
Egbuka dealt with injuries and hit the rookie wall later in the year, but he still finished with a 63-938-6 line on 127 targets, second among all rookies in receiving yards. The focus should be on the yardage, because he almost hit the milestone in year one while sharing the field with a future Hall of Famer.
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Vacated targets are the cleanest signal in a receiving prop
Mike Evans took 61 targets with him to San Francisco. Those looks do not evaporate, they get redistributed, and Egbuka is the most obvious beneficiary in that room. A receiver who managed 938 yards as the second option rarely needs a leap in talent to clear 1,000 as the first one.
The talent, the draft capital, and the role are all there. With Evans no longer part of the offense, Egbuka can lock in as Tampa Bay’s top weapon and sit in the driver’s seat for his first 1,000-yard season.
Mike Evans 8+ Receiving Touchdowns (+140)
Mike Evans has hit eight or more receiving touchdowns in eight different seasons, and he lands in San Francisco with a red-zone role that may have just gotten bigger. The health risk is real, which is why this is a touchdown bet rather than a volume bet.
Staying healthy for a full 17-game season may be a reach for a receiver who turns 33 before Week 1 and is coming off a year where injuries limited him to eight appearances. That is the elephant in the room, and it should not be ignored.
It is also exactly why I would not target volume stats like receptions or receiving yards for him. Instead, play into his greatest strength: using his size and catch radius inside the 20. That skill ages far better than separation does.
| Season | Games | Receiving TDs |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 16 | 13 |
| 2021 | 16 | 14 |
| 2022 | 15 | 6 |
| 2023 | 17 | 13 |
| 2024 | 14 | 11 |
| 2025 | 8 | 3 |
Evans scored 11 touchdowns in 14 games two years ago and has cleared 10 or more receiving scores in four of his last six seasons. His role was already going to be significant in the San Francisco 49ers offense, and then news broke that Ricky Pearsall may not be at full health.
#49ers WR Ricky Pearsall is dealing with knee swelling related to the PCL injury he suffered last year. Team says “all options” are being explored and there is some “concern.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) July 29, 2026
Pearsall had been expected to start opposite Evans. The PCL injury cost him eight games last season plus the wild-card loss at Philadelphia, and the swelling showed up two practices into camp.
Age and health are genuine factors here, so treat the 4/5 confidence as the honest ceiling on this one. Even if Evans misses time, he still has the physical traits and the track record to push for the over, and the early signs say San Francisco will need him inside the 20.
Chase Brown Over 1,000 Rushing Yards (+175)
Chase Brown has finished with 990 and 1,019 rushing yards the last two seasons, and he has no real competition for carries in Cincinnati. Getting +175 on a player who has essentially already hit this number twice is the most mispriced line on the board.
A quick look at his career stats might make you reluctant, because neither of those seasons was a blowout cover. Look at how each one happened and the picture changes.
- 2024: 990 yards on 229 carries, missing the mark by 10 yards despite not becoming the full-time back until Week 9
- 2025: 1,019 yards on 232 carries in all 17 games, his first 1,000-yard season, plus 69 catches for 437 yards
Brown was not the team’s feature back until midway through 2024. Before then he hovered around 40% of the snaps and split work with Zack Moss. Once the job was his, he took off, dropping 90 or more rushing yards in three different games.
He was held back last year too. Joe Burrow missed nine games with a Grade 3 turf toe injury, which hurt the entire Bengals offense and dragged Brown down with it. He performed better once Joe Flacco took over under center, and Burrow’s return in Week 13 boosted him down the stretch, when he caught 25 of 26 targets with three touchdown grabs.
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The risk you are actually taking
This is a Joe Burrow health bet as much as a Chase Brown bet. Burrow has now missed significant time in three of the last four seasons, and Brown’s worst stretch last year lined up exactly with Burrow’s absence. Size the ticket knowing the quarterback is the variable, not the running back.
The best part is the price. Brown gives you plus money on a bet he very nearly covered two years ago and did cover last season, in an offense where nobody is taking his touches. In 2026 he looks like a stronger bet to deliver than he was in either of those years, and the number has not caught up.
NFL Player Props We Almost Included
Three more props came close to making the list, and each is worth a look if you want more than five tickets. The goal of this breakdown was two-fold: find season-long props that can win, and find ones priced well enough to be worth the wait.
- Myles Garrett 15+ sacks (-180)
- Christian McCaffrey 10+ rushing TDs (+150)
- Caleb Williams 25+ passing TDs (+100)
You can aim high and take Myles Garrett for 20 or more sacks again at +300, but the better play is 15+. Expecting some regression after a record-breaking 23-sack season is wise, and he has still posted double-digit sack numbers in eight consecutive years. He has also cleared 15 in three of the last five.
Moving to a Rams defense with more talent around him than he had in Cleveland, Garrett could come close to matching those 2025 numbers. The beauty of the 15+ line is that he does not have to.
Christian McCaffrey is a health risk, but if he plays anywhere close to a full season he is in a strong spot to score 10 or more rushing touchdowns. The threat of missing time at age 30 after a 413-touch campaign is real, and he has still cleared this rushing touchdown total in three of his last four full seasons.
Caleb Williams offers compelling value at 25+ touchdowns as well. He is a safer bet than the other two, especially since he appears to be scratching the surface of his potential. He threw 20 touchdowns as a rookie in 2024 and cleared this mark last year with 27, and Chicago’s system and receiver group make +100 an interesting number.
How to Bet NFL Season-Long Player Props
Bet them early, shop them hard, and care more about the number than the payout. Those three habits do most of the work in this market, because season-long props are priced on incomplete information and corrected slowly.
- Bet before preseason hype moves the market. Lines posted in July reflect what books knew in June. One viral camp report can move a receiving-yards number by 100.
- Shop multiple sportsbooks for the best number. Season-long props vary more between books than sides and totals do, because fewer people bet them.
- Prioritize line value over odds. A better threshold at a worse price usually beats a worse threshold at plus money.
- Track injuries and roster changes throughout camp. The Pearsall news above is a live example of how one report reshapes a teammate’s outlook.
The other half of the job is about your own read rather than the market’s. Season-long props reward people who form a projection first and then go looking for a line that disagrees with it, not the other way around.
- Do not be afraid to bet the under. Markets overreact to breakout seasons, and unders on high lines with a shaky injury history are often the softer side.
- Weigh past production and career averages. Two or three seasons of data beat one summer of narrative.
- Vet the system and the supporting cast. A new play-caller can matter more to a stat line than the player himself.
- Align bets with team success projections. Passing touchdowns and rushing yards both track game script, so check the division odds before you commit.
Season-long props settle like futures, so your money is tied up until January. Our futures betting guide covers how books build these prices and why they drift all season, which is useful context before you park a bankroll in one.
Betting on NFL Player Props in 2026
If I had to bet one NFL player prop this year, I would take Bo Nix over 3,500 passing yards. The main thing standing between this prop and a cash is an injury, and all signs point to Nix being back at full strength.
He has cleared this total in both of his NFL seasons, and the Broncos throw the football as much as anyone. They also went out and got him a new weapon, with Jaylen Waddle arriving as arguably the best receiver on the roster.
Nix is the one I feel best about, but all five of these look like strong options. You can take them individually or group them into a parlay for more upside, keeping in mind that a parlay needs every leg to land.
Just be ready to move on these prices now. Camps are open, and things are going to start changing in a hurry. Once the season kicks off, our daily betting picks will cover the week-to-week markets where these players show up again.
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Frequently Asked Questions
The questions readers keep sending in about season-long props as camps open. Short answers below.
What exactly is a season-long NFL player prop?
It is a futures bet tied to a player’s cumulative statistics across the whole regular season rather than a single game. You are betting on where Bo Nix finishes in passing yards or how many touchdowns Josh Allen throws between September and January, and the bet does not settle until the regular season ends. Playoff production does not count toward these numbers.
When is the best time to bet NFL player props for the season?
Usually before or during training camp, which is right now. Sportsbooks post these lines early, when oddsmakers have less information to work from, and that gap is where the value sits. Once preseason games are played and camp reports start moving public opinion, the numbers tighten and the softest lines disappear.
Are season-long props better than weekly player props?
Neither is inherently better. They reward different things. Season-long props pay off long-term projection and give you months to research coaching changes, offensive schemes and expected workloads. Weekly props lean far more on individual matchups, injuries and game script. If you enjoy the roster-building side of football, the season-long market fits you better.
Should I be betting overs or unders on these?
There is no universal advantage to either side. Compare your own projection to the sportsbook’s line and bet wherever the gap is biggest. Unders can be the stronger play when a line is set high off a career year and the player has a checkered injury history, which is a spot the market tends to price optimistically.
Which of these five props would you bet if you could only pick one?
Bo Nix over 3,500 passing yards. He cleared that number in both of his NFL seasons, he led the entire league with 612 pass attempts last year, and Denver traded a first-round pick for Jaylen Waddle to upgrade the receiver room around him. The main risk is an injury, and he has recovered from the ankle surgery that ended his 2025 season.
