2026 NFL Kickoff Game: 5 Things to Know Before Betting on Seahawks vs. Patriots

The NFL returns on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, when the defending champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in the NFL Kickoff Game at Lumen Field (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). It is a rematch of Super Bowl LX, which Seattle won 29-13, and DraftKings has the Seahawks as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 44.5 as of September 3. One of these two 14-3 teams from last season has to start 0-1, and history suggests it may not be Seattle.

That little nugget is one of five things worth knowing before you bet this game, whether you are on the side, the total or the player props. I went through the odds, the depth charts, the 2025 numbers and the money, and a few of the assumptions people are making about this game do not hold up.

Here is what I would want in front of me before placing a bet on Seahawks vs. Patriots.

Seahawks vs. Patriots Odds for the 2026 NFL Kickoff Game

Seattle is a 3.5-point favorite over New England at DraftKings, with the Seahawks -175 on the moneyline, the Patriots +145, and the total at 44.5, all as of September 3, 2026. Here is the full board for the first game of the year:

Those are the main markets at DraftKings, and they have barely moved. DraftKings opened this game at Seahawks -3.5 and 44.5 back in May, and our own odds archive shows the spread and total sitting on exactly those numbers at every regulated book we track since mid-August. The one number that has drifted is the DraftKings moneyline, where the Patriots have come in from +160 to +145. Seattle should still enter as the favorite, but lines move right up to kickoff, so check the live NFL odds board before you bet.

One scheduling note: this is the first Wednesday season opener since 2012. The Rams and 49ers follow on Thursday night from Melbourne, so the Kickoff Game gets the week to itself. If this is your first NFL wager of the season, our football betting guide covers the spread, moneyline and total basics before you dive into the angles below.

1. Reigning Super Bowl Champions Have Dominated the NFL Kickoff Game

Defending Super Bowl champions are 16-5 in the NFL Kickoff Game. The champion has appeared in 21 of the 24 Kickoff Games played since the tradition started in 2002 (every year from 2004 on, except 2019, when the league opened its 100th season with Packers-Bears instead), and it has won 16 of them.

That is a 76% win rate for a team that is almost always at home, rested, and facing an opponent that has to walk into a banner-raising party. Whether you credit the momentum carrying over, the high of being champs, or simply the fact that champions tend to be good, the number is what it is. It does not mean Seattle cannot lose. It means the market is pricing the Seahawks as a 3.5-point favorite for a reason.

There is a second layer here that people get wrong. This is only the third time in league history that the two Super Bowl teams have met again in Week 1, and the previous two split. In 2016, the Broncos edged the Panthers 21-20 in the Kickoff Game after beating them in Super Bowl 50. In 1970, the Vikings turned the tables on the Chiefs 27-10 after losing Super Bowl IV to them. So the rematch angle cuts both ways. The history that actually favors Seattle is the champion’s record, not the revenge storyline.

None of this guarantees the Seahawks get the job done in Week 1. But they are at home, and they can hang their hat on a history that has favored the team in their position far more often than not.

2. George Holani Could Complicate Seahawks RB Props

George Holani is listed as Seattle’s starting running back on the first depth chart of the season, and that alone should make you slow down before betting Jadarian Price props. The Seahawks’ backfield has been rebuilt since February. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III signed with Kansas City in March (three years, $43.05 million), and Zach Charbonnet, who tore an ACL in the divisional round, opened the year on reserve/PUP and cannot return before Week 5.

Seattle used the No. 32 pick on Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price to replace Walker’s workload, and most people are treating him as the lead back. The team’s own depth chart, released September 2, says Holani, with Price and Emanuel Wilson behind him. ESPN’s Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson expects it to play out as Price leading the way with a heavy dose of Holani mixed in, which is a different thing from a workhorse role.

Here is how DraftKings has the Seattle backfield priced as of September 3:

The matchup does Price no favors either. New England allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game in 2025 (101.7), gave up 4.2 yards per carry (13th) and allowed just 11 rushing touchdowns, tied for fourth-fewest in the league. That is a good, disciplined run defense, and it was especially stingy at the goal line, which is exactly where a +120 anytime touchdown price needs help.

Put simply, a rookie splitting carries with the veteran the depth chart puts first, against a defense that does not give up short touchdowns, is not the profile I want at 51.5 yards and +120. If people bet on Price having a big game without realizing how much Holani could be involved, they could end up pretty disappointed. If you want Seattle backfield exposure anyway, Holani’s touchdown price at +235 is the more interesting number, though it is a longshot for a reason.

3. Can New England Protect Drake Maye This Time?

New England spent the whole offseason trying to make the answer yes, and the Patriots’ pass protection is the swing factor in this game. In Super Bowl LX, Seattle sacked Drake Maye six times and forced three turnovers, and Maye finished 27 of 48 for 295 yards with two interceptions. The regular season was not much kinder: the Patriots allowed 48 sacks, ninth-most in the league, and 21 more in three playoff games.

That was the same Maye who led the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%, a franchise record), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5) while throwing 31 touchdowns against eight interceptions. Give him time and he slices defenses up down the field. Seattle took that away in February by never letting him get comfortable.

The Seahawks bring back the core of the unit that did it. DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu and Derick Hall return on the edge, with Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy II inside. The one loss up front was Boye Mafe, who signed with Cincinnati. This defense allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL last season (6.0), finished 11th in sack rate and piled up 47 sacks.

New England’s answer came in three parts:

• Alijah Vera-Tucker: signed in March on a three-year, $42 million deal to start at guard.
• Caleb Lomu: the Utah tackle taken No. 28 overall, the second first-round tackle the Patriots have drafted in two years.
• Continuity: Will Campbell, last year’s first-round left tackle, gets a full offseason to recover from an MCL injury, with Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses back beside him.

How this plays out touches every market on the board. If Maye is running for his life again, the Patriots struggle to score and Seattle covers comfortably. If the rebuilt line holds up, New England has the quarterback to keep this inside a field goal. It also matters for Maye’s own props (his passing yards line sits at 225.5 at DraftKings) and, once the books post them, for Seattle sack props, where I would lean to the Over after what we saw in February. DraftKings had not listed player sack markets for this game as of September 3.

4. The Patriots Offense Has Changed Since the Super Bowl

The Patriots traded for A.J. Brown, and that is the biggest reason this offense should be better than the one Seattle held to 13 points. New England sent Philadelphia a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder for Brown after June 1, having released Stefon Diggs in March, and it also signed Romeo Doubs.

Diggs was quite the weapon in his one Patriots season (85 catches, 1,013 yards, four touchdowns), and the passing game around him was elite by any measure. New England led the league in completion rate (71.9%) and yards per attempt (8.9) and finished second in scoring at 28.8 points per game, behind only the Rams. Brown is viewed as a more dominant alpha receiver than Diggs, and he arrives to catch passes from a quarterback coming off a franchise-record completion rate.

If the Pats can give Maye a little more time, he should be able to connect with Brown and put up more points than New England mustered in February. The excitement around Brown is showing up in his prices, but I still think they are a touch low for a debut this hyped. DraftKings has his receiving yards line at 63.5 (Over -113) and his receptions at 4.5 (Over -161) as of September 3, with the alternate 6-plus catches priced at +124 and his anytime touchdown at +170.

Against a Seattle defense that allowed the fewest yards per attempt in football, none of that is easy money. It is simply a better place to look than the Seattle backfield. For the season-long version of this conversation, my rundown of the NFL player props we love for 2026 covers the bets I like all year.

5. The Betting Public Loved Seattle, but the Money Is Moving

The public spent the summer piling onto the Seahawks, and the bigger money has started leaning the other way. When I first checked DraftKings’ splits for this game, 76% of moneyline tickets were on Seattle. As of September 3, DraftKings’ own betting-splits board shows the moneyline tickets nearly even (51% Seattle, 49% New England) while 69% of the money is on the Patriots at +145.

Read that top to bottom. Ticket counts on the side and the total are close to coin flips, but the average Patriots moneyline bet is much bigger than the average Seahawks bet, and the spread tickets actually lean New England at 58%. The one lopsided handle number is the Over, which holds 71% of the money on the total despite a near-even ticket split.

There are good reasons the public started on Seattle. The Seahawks are at home, defending champs win this game more often than not, and the gap was pretty wide when these two teams last met for all the marbles. But revenge is a thing, and it is arguable the Seahawks got worse as a whole since they won the ring:

• New play-caller: offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become head coach of the Raiders. Seattle hired Brian Fleury from the 49ers, and his stated goal is to keep Kubiak’s system in place.
• New backfield: Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP, is in Kansas City, and Charbonnet is out until at least Week 5.
• Defensive turnover: edge rusher Boye Mafe (Bengals), safety Coby Bryant (Bears) and cornerback Riq Woolen (Eagles) all left in free agency, and rookie safety Bud Clark is out for the season with an ankle injury.

Here is the part the splits do not tell you on their own. In our own odds archive, the spread (-3.5) and total (44.5) have not moved at a single regulated book since August 13, while the DraftKings moneyline has drifted toward New England, from Patriots +160 to +145. That is consistent with where the bigger money is going. It is not proof the market has figured anything out about Seattle, but it is a reason to shop for the best number and to take the Patriots side seriously.

What Should Bettors Expect From Seahawks vs. Patriots?

Expect a close, low-scoring game. I like Seattle to win it, New England to cover +3.5, and the Under 44.5, and I would look at A.J. Brown’s props before I touched Jadarian Price’s.

Seattle’s dominance up front in the Super Bowl has to be the thing New England spent seven months fixing, and the Seahawks’ downside is real: a new coordinator, a new lead back and real turnover in the edge rotation and the secondary. Those are not small changes, and they are happening against a talented, well-coached Patriots team that will be out for blood.

Neither quarterback took a preseason snap, either. Mike Vrabel held Drake Maye out of all three games and said out loud that the Patriots are not a very deep team, and Sam Darnold sat for Seattle. Week 1 is historically unkind to offenses anyway (Unders went 11-1 through the Sunday afternoon windows of last season’s opening week), and two motivated teams with strong defenses and a bunch of rust points to a defensive grind. If you are new to totals, our over/under betting guide explains how to read a 44.5 before you play it.

• Side: Patriots +3.5 (-115). Seattle wins more often than not in this spot, but the hook matters in a game I expect to be decided by a field goal.
• Moneyline: Seahawks -175 if you only want the winner. Champions are 16-5 here and Seattle is at home.
• Total: Under 44.5 (-115). Two elite defenses, two rusty offenses, one new play-caller.
• Props: A.J. Brown over Jadarian Price. Brown’s 63.5 yards and 4.5 catches are the lines I would attack; Price’s 51.5 and +120 are the ones I would leave alone.

Price’s lines are unstable because of the matchup and the threat of Holani’s role, while the pricing on Brown is not steep enough for a debut this hyped. Every number above is a DraftKings snapshot from September 3, so shop your book before you bet, and check our daily betting picks for our graded calls across the Week 1 slate.

Seahawks vs. Patriots FAQ

Quick answers to the questions I keep getting about the opener, with every price as it stood at DraftKings on September 3, 2026. Lines move, so treat the numbers as a starting point.

Related Posts

• Seahawks vs. Broncos Player Props: 5 Best Bets for Thursday Night FootballKevin Roberts · October 13, 2026
• NFL MVP Odds After Five Weeks: Which Candidates Are Overpriced?Kevin Roberts · October 12, 2026
• Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Player Props: 5 Best Bets for Thursday Night FootballKevin Roberts · October 7, 2026

Kevin RobertsDFS & Sports Betting Writer

Kevin Roberts is a fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting analyst with over 20 years of experience and a registered expert at FantasyPros.com. He has contributed analysis to leading sports media brands including Bleacher Report, FFToday, and GridironExperts, and has published thousands of articles across the industry. He is also the founder of the DFS advice site DFSBuild.com and the creator of The DFS Build on YouTube. A consistently profitable DFS player on DraftKings and FanDuel, Kevin is known for disciplined, value-based strategy and numerous three- and four-figure wins. His expertise spans daily fantasy sports, player props, futures and prediction markets, season-long and dynasty formats, and sports betting picks—all backed by a commitment to publicly graded results and a transparent track record.

Full bio & contact