MLB Awards Betting 2026: Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young, ROY & More
MLB awards betting in mid-August comes down to one question: which favorites are actually worth their price, and which ones are so short that the market has already taken all the profit? With roughly seven weeks left in the 2026 regular season, my six picks are Yordan Alvarez for AL MVP, Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP, Dylan Cease for AL Cy Young, Jacob Misiorowski for NL Cy Young, Kevin McGonigle for AL Rookie of the Year and Sal Stewart for NL Rookie of the Year. Two of those are heavy chalk I would not put a dollar on, and separating “who wins” from “what pays” is the entire job here.
There are clear favorites in most of these markets. Not every favorite offers value, though, and not every favorite is going to hold up over the last month and a half. Below I walk through the latest awards odds, give you my pick in each market, and flag the longshots that are worth a small ticket rather than a serious bet.
🕑 Odds last checked: August 27, 2026. All award prices are DraftKings numbers, re-checked against the board published August 24; the deepest longshots in the MVP tables still carry their earlier August 13 price. All stats and records are current through games of August 26. Futures boards move every day, so confirm the live number at your book before you bet anything here.
2026 MLB Awards Best Bets
Here is every pick in one place. These are the players I think actually win each award, listed with their current price. Value is a separate question, and I get into that market by market below.
| Award | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AL MVP | Yordan Alvarez | -2000 |
| NL MVP | Shohei Ohtani | +155 |
| AL Cy Young | Dylan Cease | +140 |
| NL Cy Young | Jacob Misiorowski | -1400 |
| AL Rookie of the Year | Kevin McGonigle | -800 |
| NL Rookie of the Year | Sal Stewart | +160 |
Keep in mind that a shortlist like this says nothing about price. Alvarez and Misiorowski are the two most likely winners on the board and also the two worst tickets to buy. If you want to know where I would actually put money, read on.
2026 MLB MVP Odds and Best Bets
The two MVP races are close to opposites. The American League is over barring an injury, with Yordan Alvarez at -2000 and nobody within shouting distance. The National League has stopped being a coin flip: Pete Crow-Armstrong has pulled clear at -190 while Shohei Ohtani has drifted out to +155, and that gap is where the money is.
AL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | -2000 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +1200 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +3000 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | +4000 |
AL MVP Pick: Yordan Alvarez (-2000)
Alvarez wins this award, and you should not bet him at -2000. Those two things are both true, which is exactly why the AL MVP market is a pass rather than a play. The Astros slugger leads the American League with 36 home runs, and he is doing it while hitting .322 to lead the league in average, with a 1.051 OPS and 91 RBI in 131 games.
Efficiency plus power plus a team that matters is the MVP formula, and Houston is 66-67 and still in the AL playoff conversation, so none of this production is going to waste on a lost season. The case is airtight. The price is the problem: at -2000 you are risking $2,000 to win $100, and there is no version of this bet that pays you for the risk you are taking on a hamstring or a cold September.
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What -2000 Actually Costs You
A -2000 price implies the market gives Alvarez about a 95% chance to win. To profit you need him to be better than that, and you tie up $2,000 for five weeks to make $100. Heavy favorites in awards markets are usually a place to take your money out, not put it in.
AL MVP Longshot Worth Watching: Junior Caminero (+1200)
If you want action in this market, Caminero at +1200 is the only sensible way to take it. The Rays slugger is not a sentimental pick either: he sits second in the American League with 35 home runs, one behind Alvarez, which keeps him in the single most visible column in any MVP argument.
He also has the team argument on his side. Tampa Bay is 79-54 and owns the best record in the American League, while Houston has slipped under .500. Caminero cannot touch Alvarez in the batting average column (.280 against .322) and he trails in OPS and WAR, so he needs help. But if Alvarez slips for two weeks and Caminero keeps launching baseballs for a first-place club, this gets interesting fast, and +1200 pays for the wait.
NL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | -190 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +155 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +10000 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +15000 |
NL MVP Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+155)
Ohtani at +155 is the best bet on this entire page, and the price has only gotten better. This is not a knock on Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has a real case as the favorite and has been the more valuable player by the most common measure. It is a statement about what you are being paid.
Start with where they are genuinely close. Crow-Armstrong has 33 home runs to Ohtani’s 30, and 83 RBI to Ohtani’s 80. Ohtani hits .288 with a .934 OPS; Crow-Armstrong hits .276 with a .924 OPS. That is close to the same player at the plate. The separation comes in two places, and they point in opposite directions.
- Crow-Armstrong’s edge: 32 stolen bases to Ohtani’s 10, plus center field defense, which is why he leads Ohtani comfortably in Baseball-Reference WAR among position players.
- Ohtani’s edge: he is also a front-line starting pitcher. He is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 95 strikeouts across 85.2 innings in 14 starts.
That is the whole debate. Voters have to weigh 32 steals and elite center field defense against a guy who takes the ball every fifth day and pitches like an ace. History says the two-way season tends to win that argument. The market has stopped treating it as a toss-up, though: Crow-Armstrong has moved from -120 to -190 while Ohtani has drifted from even money to +155. If you thought Ohtani was worth a ticket at +100, the case for him is better now, because nothing in the two stat lines moved as far as the odds did.
NL MVP Longshot Worth Watching: Kyle Schwarber (+15000)
Schwarber at 150-1 is a lottery ticket, and I want to be clear that is what it is. He has one enormous thing going for him: 40 home runs, which leads the National League and leads all of baseball outright.
His problem is everything around the power. He is hitting .243, and unlike Ohtani he does not pitch and unlike Crow-Armstrong he does not run or defend a premium position. Voters stopped handing out MVPs for home runs alone a long time ago. Still, his bat has Philadelphia at 74-60, and if he gets to 50 homers while the two favorites cool off, 150-1 is the kind of number that makes a September worth watching. Bet it like the longshot it is.
2026 MLB Cy Young Odds and Best Bets
One Cy Young race is finished and the other is still a two-man argument. Jacob Misiorowski has the National League award in hand at -1400, while the American League belongs to Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, a race that flipped once this month before Schlittler pushed back out in front.
AL Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler (NYY) | -165 |
| Dylan Cease (TOR) | +140 |
| Sonny Gray (BOS) | +3500 |
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | +3500 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | +8000 |
| Parker Messick (CLE) | +5000 |
AL Cy Young Pick: Dylan Cease (+140)
Cease at +140 is the play, and this is a two-horse race where nothing else on the board deserves your attention. Schlittler is the correct favorite. I just prefer the upside at the longer price, and the gap between them is thinner than -165 against +140 suggests.
| Stat | Cam Schlittler | Dylan Cease |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-6 | 8-5 |
| ERA | 2.16 | 2.37 |
| WHIP | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Strikeouts | 193 | 209 |
| HR Allowed | 14 | 9 |
Schlittler holds the edge in record, ERA and WHIP. Cease answers with more strikeouts and five fewer home runs allowed in 15 fewer innings, and he has been the better pitcher lately: a 1.00 ERA across five July starts, followed by a strong August opener against the Cubs. That run is what dragged his number from +125 in early August down to even money, and it briefly made him the outright favorite before the market swung back.
The honest risk in this ticket is team context. Schlittler’s Yankees are 75-57 and comfortably inside the wild card field, while Cease’s Blue Jays are 65-69 and sitting 1.5 games out of the last spot. Voters are not supposed to weigh that, and they usually do anyway. If Toronto fades out of the race in September, Cease loses a narrative he never really had. I still want the plus number in a race this close, and I do not see the need for a longshot here. One of these two is winning it.
NL Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | -1400 |
| Chris Sale (ATL) | +1000 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | +1500 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | +6000 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) | +6000 |
| Chase Burns (CIN) | +6000 |
NL Cy Young Pick: Jacob Misiorowski (-1400)
Misiorowski wins this award unless he gets hurt. The Brewers ace is not just leading the National League, he is leading all of Major League Baseball in the three numbers this award is built on, at the same time.
- ERA: 1.68, first in MLB
- Strikeouts: 216, first in MLB
- WHIP: 0.76, first in MLB
Sweeping all three of those categories is how a Cy Young race ends in August. He is 13-5, and the wins column is not a problem either. It has all been in service of something, too: Milwaukee is 82-51 and owns the best record in baseball, a run I broke down in more detail in our look at why the Brewers are the best World Series bet on the board. Only an injury or a genuine collapse over six weeks takes this away from him.
NL Cy Young Longshot Worth Watching: Chris Sale (+1000)
I am offering a longshot here for one reason: the favorite’s price is ugly, and it has gotten uglier. You can lay -1400 on Misiorowski and be right, and you will get back about $7 on a $100 ticket for the privilege. That is a lot of certainty for very little money.
Sale is the alternative. He ranks third in baseball in ERA at 2.20, inside the top 10 in WHIP at 1.03 and 12th in strikeouts with 166. Those are Cy Young numbers in a normal year. This is not a normal year, and closing a gap of more than half a run in ERA against a pitcher who is not slowing down would take something close to a perfect final five weeks. Treat +1000 as what it is, which is a small swing at a very good pitcher stuck behind a historic one.
2026 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Rookie of the Year is usually where the best futures value lives, but you normally have to get there before Opening Day. By August the rookie class has sorted itself out: the American League race looks decided, while the National League is a two-man fight the market has priced backwards.
AL Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | -800 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CWS) | +600 |
| Parker Messick (CLE) | +2000 |
| Travis Bazzana (CLE) | +4000 |
| Payton Tolle (BOS) | +4000 |
AL Rookie of the Year Pick: Kevin McGonigle (-800)
McGonigle should win this, though I like the odds a lot less than I like the player. The Tigers infielder has been the most complete rookie in the American League, and the argument for him is durability and all-around value rather than any single loud number.
He is hitting .278 with 14 home runs, 56 RBI and 12 steals across 129 games, and his Baseball-Reference WAR is the best mark among AL rookies. Playing every day at a premium position adds up quietly, and 129 games against Murakami’s 98 is the real separator. Be honest about where he loses, though: Murakami beats him in OPS (.860 to .802) and in RBI (58 to 56) despite the missed time.
AL Rookie of the Year Longshot Worth Watching: Munetaka Murakami (+600)
Murakami is the same situation as the NL Cy Young: there is a clear favorite, and the price makes me want to do something else. The White Sox slugger loses the durability and WAR argument to McGonigle by a mile, and he wins the power argument by an even wider one.
He has 26 home runs to McGonigle’s 12, more than double, in 33 fewer games. That total ties him for 11th in all of baseball, which is remarkable for a player who lost 35 games to a Grade 2 hamstring strain in late May and did not return until July 10. Since coming back he has reached base in 24 consecutive games.
The holes are obvious. He is hitting .219 and has struck out 145 times in 98 games, and voters who lean on WAR will not get to him. But +600 on a healthy slugger who keeps running into home runs is a fair price for a swing, and Chicago at 70-63 against Detroit at 62-71 is not the kind of standings gap that hands either rookie a narrative.
NL Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt (STL) | +110 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +160 |
| Nolan McLean (NYM) | +1600 |
| Carson Benge (NYM) | +450 |
NL Rookie of the Year Pick: Sal Stewart (+160)
Stewart at +160 is still the price I want, though the market has closed most of the gap I was pointing at. Wetherholt is no longer a minus-money favorite: he has drifted to +110, Stewart sits at +160, and Carson Benge has come from +3000 all the way to +450 to make this a three-man race. The counting stats that actually swing Rookie of the Year voting still point at Stewart.
| Stat | Sal Stewart | JJ Wetherholt |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .261 | .245 |
| OPS | .806 | .724 |
| Home Runs | 28 | 17 |
| RBI | 100 | 48 |
| bWAR | 1.7 | 4.3 |
The Reds infielder beats Wetherholt in batting average, OPS, home runs and RBI, and the RBI gap is not close: 88 against 45, nearly double. He also has 26 home runs, ten more than Wetherholt and enough to tie for 11th in all of baseball.
Wetherholt’s case rests almost entirely on WAR, where his glove and position push him to 4.3 against Stewart’s 1.7. That is a real argument, and it is the one thing that could beat me here. I think the market is over-weighting it. Rookie of the Year voters have historically rewarded the loud offensive season, and 100 RBI with 28 homers is a much easier ballot to fill out than a .724 OPS with good defense. Team success does not break the tie either, with St. Louis at 66-68 and Cincinnati at 63-71.
Which 2026 MLB Award Market Has the Best Betting Value?
NL Rookie of the Year is the best value on the board right now. The AL Cy Young and NL MVP races have both drifted toward their favorites, so the plus-money sides pay more than they did a fortnight ago and both are still worth a bet. The NL rookie market is different, because it is priced as a tight race when the numbers say it should not be tight at all.
Stewart is close to lapping his main competition in RBI and beats him in every traditional offensive category, and you are still being paid plus money to take him. When the market and the box score disagree that clearly, that is the wager to look at first.
How We Make Our MLB Awards Picks
We start by separating two questions that most awards coverage blends together: who is most likely to win, and whether the current price pays you enough to back them. A player can be the right answer and the wrong bet, which is exactly what is happening with Alvarez and Misiorowski on this page.
Different awards are judged on different things, so each market gets its own read. Here is what goes into every call above:
- Current betting odds and the probability those odds imply
- Season-long production and advanced statistics
- Playing time, durability and injury history
- Strength of the competition inside the same race
- Team performance, where voters have historically cared about it
- Historical voting tendencies and recent odds movement
You can see the result in the picks above. We are not simply backing favorites, and in two markets we are naming the likely winner and then pointing you somewhere else because the price is out of line. If you want more of our day-to-day work, our daily MLB picks apply the same standard to individual games.
What Stats Matter Most for MLB Awards Betting?
Each award leans on a different set of numbers, so the stat that wins an MVP will barely move a Cy Young ballot. Knowing which data set a given award is judged on is most of the work in handicapping these markets.
| Award | What Voters Weigh Most |
|---|---|
| MVP | WAR, wRC+, OPS, home runs, RBI, defense, total offensive value |
| Cy Young | ERA, FIP, WHIP, strikeout rate, innings, WAR |
| Rookie of the Year | WAR, playing time, offensive or pitching production, defense |
| Manager of the Year | Team improvement, preseason expectations, injuries, contention |
Context matters as much as the raw totals, and that is precisely why Kyle Schwarber is 150-1 for NL MVP with a share of the league home run lead, and why Sal Stewart is an underdog for NL Rookie of the Year with far better counting stats than the favorite. Your job as a bettor is to find the places where the market is leaning on one number and the voters are likely to lean on another.
When Should You Bet on MLB Awards?
The best time to bet an MLB award is before the season starts, when prices are longest and the market knows as little as you do. That is the general rule for futures betting in any sport, and awards markets follow it closely. Prices only get shorter as races clarify.
That said, races change, and each stage of a season opens a different kind of window:
- Preseason: the longest odds available, with the most uncertainty attached.
- April and May: early breakouts create value before sportsbooks fully adjust.
- June and July: the legitimate contenders separate from the field.
- August and September: far more information, but favorites get expensive fast, which is the Alvarez and Misiorowski problem in a nutshell.
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Early Does Not Mean Automatic
Betting early gets you the best price, but only if you have an actual opinion. If you cannot make a case for a player you believe in, the longer number is not doing anything for you. A bad bet at +2000 is still a bad bet.
Mid-August is a workable window if you accept what it is. You are paying up for information, which means the value has moved away from the favorites and toward the second-choice players in genuinely close races. That is why four of my six picks here are plus-money or near it, and why the two heaviest favorites on the board are ones I am telling you to leave alone. If you are shopping numbers across books, our guide to the best MLB betting sites covers where the futures boards tend to be sharpest.
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2026 MLB Awards Betting FAQ
A few questions that come up every August when these markets start to tighten up.
Who is favored to win AL MVP in 2026?
Yordan Alvarez is a heavy -2000 favorite for AL MVP. He leads the American League in batting average at .322 and in home runs with 36, so he is very likely to win. That price is too short to bet, which is why a small ticket on Junior Caminero at +1200 is the more sensible way to play this market.
Who is favored to win NL MVP in 2026?
Pete Crow-Armstrong is now a clear favorite at -190 over Shohei Ohtani at +155, after a stretch in which the market moved decisively toward him. The two remain close at the plate, 33 home runs to 30 with OPS marks within .010 of one another. Crow-Armstrong separates himself with 32 stolen bases and center field defense, while Ohtani adds an 8-2 record and a 1.79 ERA on the mound. Ohtani is the better price.
Who is favored to win AL Cy Young in 2026?
Cam Schlittler is the favorite at -165, ahead of Dylan Cease at +140. Schlittler leads in ERA and record, while Cease leads in strikeouts and has allowed five fewer home runs. The market flipped in Cease’s favor in early August before swinging back, and it has since drifted further toward Schlittler, so the gap is real but narrow.
Who is favored to win NL Cy Young in 2026?
Jacob Misiorowski, and it is not close. The Brewers ace leads all of Major League Baseball in ERA at 1.68, strikeouts with 216 and WHIP at 0.76 at the same time. At -1400 he is the most likely winner of any award on the board and also the worst price on it.
Who is favored to win MLB Rookie of the Year in 2026?
Kevin McGonigle is the AL favorite at -800 and JJ Wetherholt leads the NL at +110. McGonigle has been the more durable and complete player across 129 games. Wetherholt is the shakier favorite, because Sal Stewart beats him in batting average, OPS, home runs and RBI, and Carson Benge has cut his own price from +3000 to +450 to join the race.
What is the best MLB awards bet right now?
Sal Stewart to win NL Rookie of the Year at +160. He still trails JJ Wetherholt on the board despite leading him in every traditional offensive category, including a 28 to 17 edge in home runs and 100 RBI to 48. Wetherholt leads in WAR, and the market appears to be weighting that more heavily than voters typically do.
Can you still bet on MLB awards during the season?
Yes. Sportsbooks keep awards futures open throughout the regular season, though available markets and prices change constantly. Odds generally get shorter as a race becomes more predictable, so the same bet that paid +400 in June can be -300 by September.
When are the 2026 MLB awards announced?
The major individual awards are announced in November, after the season ends. Voting by the Baseball Writers Association of America is completed before the postseason begins, which means playoff performance does not count toward MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. Your futures ticket is settled on regular season play only.
Full voting procedures and the complete history of every winner are published at the league’s official MLB awards hub, which is worth a look if you want to see how often the August favorite actually holds up.
