Lions vs. Bills Player Props: 5 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football
The best Lions vs. Bills player prop for Thursday Night Football is Josh Allen to score a touchdown at -135 on DraftKings. He ran for two scores in Buffalo’s 36-31 Week 1 win at Houston and has 12 or more rushing touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. The total for Week 2’s opener has climbed to 54.5, so I also like James Cook, Jameson Williams, Jared Goff and a longshot on Isaac TeSlaa. Every price below comes from a live pull of the regulated books late Wednesday afternoon, September 16, 2026.
Detroit and Buffalo kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 17, 2026, on Prime Video. It is Buffalo’s home opener and the first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Both teams are 1-0: Detroit needed overtime to beat New Orleans 31-30, and Allen beat Houston with a late touchdown pass. If you want the side rather than the player markets, our Lions vs. Bills prediction covers the spread. This piece is only about the props.
Best Lions vs. Bills Player Props
Here is the full card. Every line and price is from DraftKings as of 5:39 p.m. ET on September 16, 2026. The confidence column shows how strongly I feel about each play. It is not a probability or a claim of value.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Anytime Touchdown | Yes | -135 | 5/5 |
| James Cook | Rushing Yards (70+) | Over 69.5 | -169 | 5/5 |
| Jameson Williams | Receptions (4+) | Over 3.5 | -162 | 4/5 |
| Jared Goff | Passing Touchdowns (2+) | Over 1.5 | -147 | 4/5 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Anytime Touchdown | Yes | +450 | 2/5 |
DraftKings has the best regulated price, or ties for it, on the first three plays. On the last two it trails other books by enough to matter. Goff’s two-touchdown line is -147 at DraftKings and -132 at FanDuel. TeSlaa is +450 at DraftKings, +500 at FanDuel and BetRivers, and +550 at Fanatics.
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Shop the Goff and TeSlaa Props Before You Bet
As of 5:39 p.m. ET on September 16, 2026, FanDuel has Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -132, against -137 at Caesars, -140 at BetMGM and -147 at DraftKings. Fanatics has TeSlaa to score at +550, against +450 at DraftKings. On a $100 bet, that is $100 more if he scores. Allen’s touchdown is -135 at both DraftKings and Fanatics, and Cook over 69.5 is -169 at DraftKings against -174 at FanDuel. BetMGM does not post Cook’s 69.5 line, and its Williams line is 4.5, not 3.5.
Lions vs. Bills Odds and Game Info
Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings, with a 54.5 total. That is well above where the game opened. DraftKings’ first snapshot in our odds archive, on August 13, had Buffalo -3 with a 52.5 total. It stayed there until Week 1, then moved to -4.5 and 53.5 by Monday and to 54.5 by Tuesday night. The regulated books now split between -4.5, -5 and -5.5, and all of them have the total at 54.5.
| Detail | Lions vs. Bills (DraftKings, Sept. 16) |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills |
| Date and Time | Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. |
| Spread | Bills -4.5 (-118) / Lions +4.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | Bills -238 / Lions +195 |
| Total | 54.5 (Over -118 / Under -102) |
| TV / Streaming | Prime Video |
Wednesday’s final injury reports list none of the five players on this card. Detroit ruled out two offensive linemen: left guard Christian Mahogany (hip) and rookie right tackle Blake Miller (knee), the No. 17 overall pick. Cornerback D.J. Reed (foot) is questionable. Buffalo listed defensive lineman T.J. Sanders, safety Cole Bishop and backup running back Ty Johnson as questionable. Johnson matters for the Cook prop, since he also missed Week 1. The National Weather Service forecast for kickoff is dry and mild, around 69 degrees with almost no wind, so weather should not affect any of these plays.
1. Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-135)
Allen is always a good bet to punch in a rushing score, and Week 1 showed why. At Houston he ran six times for 23 yards and scored on runs of 21 yards and 1 yard, and he also threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns.
Why I’m betting it: Allen gets the goal-line carries on this team. He has run for 15, 12 and 14 touchdowns over the last three seasons, and the 54.5 total and a home favorite’s game script both point to Buffalo spending time inside the Detroit 10. He could lean on Cook or do most of his damage through the air on Thursday, and he can still get in.
The key stat: 14 rushing touchdowns in 2025, spread over 8 of his 16 games. Four of those games had two scores and one had three. The last time he saw Detroit, the 48-42 shootout at Ford Field in December 2024, he threw for 362 yards and scored twice through the air and twice on the ground.
The risk: The touchdowns come in bunches. Allen ran for a touchdown in half his games last year, and a -135 price needs him to score about 57% of the time to break even. The case for betting it anyway is the matchup: the total has climbed two full points since August to 54.5, and Detroit gave up 30 points to New Orleans in the opener.
The verdict: Anytime touchdown, yes (-135 at DraftKings or Fanatics). Confidence: 5/5.
2. James Cook Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-169)
I like betting Allen touchdown props, and I also think this could be a big spot for James Cook. His main DraftKings line is 78.5, but I’ll take the 70-plus alternate (over 69.5) at -169 for the extra nine yards of cushion.
Why I’m betting it: Cook won the NFL rushing title last season with 1,621 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, and he had only 13 carries in Houston. He ran for 57 yards on those 13 carries and added three catches for 12 yards. A home favorite that plans to protect a lead should hand him more than 13 carries, and with Ty Johnson questionable, there is less competition for the work.
The key stat: 12 of 17. That is how many games Cook topped 70 yards in last season, and his lowest total in those 12 was 74. One of the five misses was a two-carry Week 18 appearance. The -169 price needs him to clear the number about 63% of the time, and he did it in 71% of his games last year.
The risk: Detroit’s run defense is not the soft spot it looks like. Travis Etienne did average 5.1 yards a carry against the Lions on Sunday, but on just nine carries, and New Orleans as a team ran 25 times for 91 yards (3.6 per carry). Detroit was 21st in yards per carry allowed last season (4.37) but 14th in rushing yards allowed per game. If Buffalo gets into a shootout, Allen’s arm may take carries away from Cook.
The verdict: Over 69.5 rushing yards (-169 at DraftKings, or over 78.5 at -111 if you want the main line). Confidence: 5/5.
3. Jameson Williams Over 3.5 Receptions (-162)
The squeaky wheel argument works on the Detroit side too. I think the Bills get Cook going on the ground, and I think the Lions make a point of getting Jameson Williams involved after a rough opener.
Why I’m betting it: Williams was on the field for 65 of Detroit’s 77 snaps in Week 1 and saw nine targets. He caught four of them for 45 yards, including the 22-yard overtime catch that set up the winning touchdown. The Detroit Free Press counted three drops. Dan Campbell spent Tuesday defending him, telling 97.1 The Ticket he was “not concerned” and that nobody had a better camp than Williams this summer. An offense whose head coach talks like that keeps throwing him the ball.
The key stat: 10 of 17. Williams caught four or more passes in 10 games last season, on his way to 65 catches for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns. His volume has grown every year, from 42 targets in 2023 to 91 in 2024 and 102 in 2025.
The risk: The drops are a pattern, not a one-week problem. The Free Press, citing Pro Football Reference, says he led the league with 12 drops in 2025. His 10-of-17 rate is also a bit under the roughly 62% break-even at -162. The market has moved toward this bet today: in our odds archive, DraftKings had Williams at 4.5 catches (+123) at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday and had dropped the line to 3.5 by late afternoon. That is why this is a 4/5.
The verdict: Over 3.5 receptions (-162 at DraftKings). Confidence: 4/5.
4. Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-147)
Whether the Williams bet hits or not, I think we can be aggressive with Lions props. Goff to throw at least two touchdowns fits a game with a 54.5 total and a Detroit team expected to be chasing points on the road.
Why I’m betting it: Goff is a regular touchdown thrower: 29, 30, 37 and 34 over the last four seasons. He threw two in Week 1 (26 of 39 for 206 yards), and Amon-Ra St. Brown caught two touchdowns in that game. With Mahogany and Miller out on the line, Detroit has a reason to lean on quick throws over a long run game. And a 4.5-point underdog in a projected shootout should be passing in the second half.
The key stat: Goff has thrown two or more touchdowns in 5 of his last 8 games, and in 10 of 17 games last season. Buffalo just gave up 274 yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Stroud, and Houston scored 31.
The risk: This is not the Houston matchup. Buffalo allowed the fewest passing yards in the league last season (2,894) and only 19 passing touchdowns, per NFL.com’s team defense stats. Goff’s 206 yards on 39 attempts in Week 1 was not a big passing day, either. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for two touchdowns and 156 yards against the Saints, and every red-zone touchdown he runs in is one Goff doesn’t throw. Take the -132 at FanDuel if you can. The 15 cents between that and -147 is a real cost on a bet he cleared in 10 of 17 games last year.
The verdict: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-132 at FanDuel, -147 at DraftKings). Confidence: 4/5.
5. Isaac TeSlaa Anytime Touchdown (+450)
Of all the Thursday night props on the board, the one I’m most excited about is the riskiest: Isaac TeSlaa to score. It sounds odd, since he didn’t catch a pass in Week 1, but the price gives you a lot of room to be wrong.
Why I’m betting it: TeSlaa is a big-bodied receiver who wins contested catches, and that made him a red-zone weapon as a rookie. He caught 16 passes for 239 yards last season, and six of them went for touchdowns. He is Detroit’s clear No. 3 receiver now. He played 52 of 77 offensive snaps (68%) in Week 1 and was one of only three wideouts to take an offensive snap, and Campbell has said he wants to get him more involved.
The key stat: Six touchdowns on 27 targets in 2025, a rate that doesn’t need volume. At +450, the price implies about an 18% chance he scores. A $100 bet returns $550 at DraftKings, and $650 at the +550 posted by Fanatics.
The risk: One target on 52 snaps is not a role. St. Brown (14 targets), Williams (nine), Sam LaPorta and Gibbs all come before TeSlaa, and a touchdown rate built on 27 targets can fall apart quickly. That is why this is a 2/5 and a small bet, even though it is the play I want to watch most.
The verdict: Anytime touchdown, yes (+450 at DraftKings, +550 at Fanatics). Confidence: 2/5.
What the 2024 Shootout Says About This Total
The last time these teams met, Buffalo won 48-42 at Ford Field on December 15, 2024, and the two offenses combined for 1,080 yards (Detroit 521, Buffalo 559). That game is part of why this total opened high and kept climbing. It is also the game the touchdown props on this card are built on.
Allen Did It Both Ways
Allen threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns and ran for two more. That is the version of him the anytime touchdown bet needs, and it came against a Detroit defense that could not stop him in either phase.
The Series Keeps Going Buffalo’s Way, but Barely
Buffalo has won the last five meetings, by 2, 3, 1, 3 and 6 points. Detroit has not beaten the Bills since 2006 or won in Buffalo since 1991. Close games tend to help the Overs on this card, because neither offense gets to sit on a lead.
Both Rosters Look Different Now
Buffalo has a new head coach in Joe Brady, and Detroit rebuilt its offensive line, then lost two of its starters for this game. The 2024 numbers are most useful for Allen, Goff and Williams, whose roles haven’t changed. They tell you little about TeSlaa, who wasn’t in the league yet.
Lions vs. Bills Player Props Prediction
Allen to score is the one bet I’d make first, and Cook over 69.5 is the steadiest play on the card. The TeSlaa touchdown is easily the riskiest, but it’s a fun way to finish the list and has plenty of upside. When a game has a total this high and two offenses this dangerous, it’s worth taking a few more chances, and betting on NFL variance in small doses is part of that.
Looking for safer Thursday night props? Stick with Allen, Cook and Goff. The odds aren’t as attractive, but they are steady players with good matchups. If you want a second opinion on how these markets are priced and settled, our guide to NFL player props walks through it, and our Rams vs. 49ers prop card from Week 1’s Thursday game shows how we built last week’s list.
Prices on a Thursday night game move all day, and they move fastest when inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff. Re-check every number before you bet.
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Lions vs. Bills Player Props FAQ
The questions we get most about this game, answered against the September 16, 2026 board.
What is the best Lions vs. Bills player prop for Thursday Night Football?
Josh Allen to score a touchdown at -135 on DraftKings is our top play. He ran for two touchdowns in the Week 1 win at Houston, has 12 or more rushing touchdowns in each of the last three seasons, and scored twice on the ground the last time he played Detroit. The total has climbed to 54.5, which points to plenty of scoring chances.
What are the best Bills player props tonight?
Allen anytime touchdown at -135 and James Cook over 69.5 rushing yards at -169 lead the way. Cook won the 2025 rushing title with 1,621 yards and topped 70 yards in 12 of 17 games, and he had only 13 carries in Week 1, so a home favorite should give him more work. Backup running back Ty Johnson is questionable, which could leave even more carries for Cook.
What are the best Lions player props if I’m betting Detroit?
Jameson Williams over 3.5 receptions at -162 and Jared Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns are our two Detroit plays, and Goff is -132 at FanDuel against -147 at DraftKings. Williams saw nine targets in Week 1 and caught four or more passes in 10 games last season. For a longshot, Isaac TeSlaa to score is +450 at DraftKings and +550 at Fanatics. He caught six touchdowns as a rookie. Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the headline names, but their prices already reflect that.
What time is Lions vs. Bills, and where can I watch it?
The Lions and Bills kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 17, 2026, at the new Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The game streams nationally on Prime Video. It is Buffalo’s home opener and the first regular-season game at the new stadium.
Who is favored in Lions vs. Bills?
Buffalo is favored. DraftKings had the Bills at -4.5 (-118) with a -238 moneyline late Wednesday afternoon, and other regulated books ranged from -4.5 to -5.5. DraftKings opened the game at Bills -3 in August and moved it after Week 1, and the total climbed from 52.5 to 54.5 over the same stretch.
Which sportsbook has the best odds on these Lions vs. Bills props?
It depends on the prop. As of 5:39 p.m. ET on September 16, 2026, DraftKings had the best or tied-best regulated price on Allen to score (-135, tied with Fanatics), Cook over 69.5 rushing yards (-169) and Williams over 3.5 receptions (-162). FanDuel had the best price on Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-132), and Fanatics had the best price on TeSlaa to score (+550). Prop prices vary between books far more than spreads and totals, so compare at least two before you bet.
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