Kentucky Derby 2024 Predictions: The Top Contenders

Churchill Downs will be packed out this Saturday, May 4, for the running of the Kentucky Derby, the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. Who’s expected to win the title this year? We’ll highlight the top three contenders to take it all at this year’s Kentucky Derby and show you how to easily place your race wagers online. Grab a mint julep and a hot brown, and we’ll dive into the horses you’ll want to watch as you place your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets!

Where Can I Watch the Kentucky Derby?

If you are unsure when the 150th Kentucky Derby takes place or how to view it from home, here are your options. If you don’t want to miss any event coverage, we recommend tuning in around 2:30 p.m. (EST) for all the pre-race commentary and preparations.

• Date: May 4, 2024 (Saturday)
• Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
• Coverage Start Time: 2:30 p.m. (EST)
• Post Time: 6:57 p.m. (EST)
• Cable TV: NBC
• Streaming: YouTube TV, Peacock, fuboTV

Fierceness – The Odds on Favorite to Win

Fierceness is the odds-on favorite to win the Kentucky Derby with odds of 5-2. It’s important to remember that the favorite hasn’t won the race since 2018, and there are twenty horses on the field this year, meaning that the heavily favored horse still gets a run their money. However, Fierceness will be the first to crush this new expectation in six years.

Fierceness is a three-year-old colt that has only been competing for two years: 2023 and 2024. He has raced at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, and Saratoga. Fierceness currently holds a record of 3-0-1 in five starts and has gained 136 points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby, which puts him at No. 2. He won his last race on March 30 during the Florida Derby, where he reached a top speed of 107 mph. His Equibase Speed Score is 110 mph, which gives him a likely shot at winning it Saturday.

Fast Facts

Fierceness’ Past Five Performances

Let’s look at his past performances to understand how Fiercness has been running over the past six months or more. He’s had three wins since August 2023 and performs best on muddy and fast dirt tracks.

Sierra Leone – Top Contender to Upset a Fierceness Victory

Sierra Leone is a three-year-old colt with 3-1 odds of winning the 2024 Kentucky Derby this Saturday at Churchill Downs. He has run at Keeneland, Fair Grounds, and Aqueduct. He won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and the 2024 Risen Star (G2).

Though Fierceness is the odds-on-favorite to win the 150th Kentucky Derby, many say Sierra Leone is the next likely contender for the title.

Sierra Leone has a far more consistent performance record, coming in first place three times and second place once. Stack that against Fierceness, who won three races but also placed 3rd in the 2024 Holy Bull and 7th at Champagne S.

Fast Facts

Sierra Leone’s Past Four Performances

As mentioned earlier, Sierra Leone is a more consistent winner than Fierceness, consistently placing somewhere at the top of the pack. Judging by past performance, we can see Sierra Leone holding his own against Fierceness and possibly winning Saturday’s race.

Catching Freedom – A Longshot That’s Building Momentum

The oddsmakers are giving Catching Freedom 8-1 odds of winning the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, placing him behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. The key thing with Catching Freedom is that he has slowly built momentum over his five career races, three of which he has won. His Equibase Speed Score has gone from 83 in October 2023 to 95 in March 2024.

Catching Freedom is still a longshot to win on Saturday, considering Fierncess and Sierra Leone are running with Equibase Speed Scores of 110 and 107 mph, respectively. But there is something to be said for building momentum. At this point, we don’t see Catching Freedom plateauing in performance. Still, his victory at Churchill Downs would hinge on the other two competitors losing steam after their respective career performances.

Fast Facts

Catching Freedom’s Past Five Performances

Catching Freedom has placed no worse than 4th in any of the races he’s run over his career. At the same time, Fierceness placed a weak 7th at Champagne S. in October 2023. It’s hard to tell which will win at the end of the day: higher average speed or past performance records. If speed wins it, you’ll want to be on Fierceness. If you’re banking on a weak performance, you might bet on a Catching Freedom win due to his stronger finish over his career.

Who Will Win?

We will go on a limb and say that Sierra Leone will reign victorious at the 150th Kentucky Derby.

Betting on Sierra Leone has a better payout than betting on the favorite Fierceness. Odds of 5-2 for a $2.00 wager would result in $7.00 in profit, while odds of 3-1 for a $2.00 wager would result in $8.00 in profit. Sierra Leone has a likely shot to win on Saturday, and you could rake in some extra profit by going out on a limb and betting against the favorite.

Matthew Buchanan

Matthew specializes in writing our gambling app review content, spending days testing out sportsbooks and online casinos to get intimate with these platforms and what they offer. He’s also a blog contributor, creating guides on increasing your odds of winning against the house by playing table games, managing your bankroll responsibly, and choosing the slot machines with the best return-to-player rates.

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