Why Patrick Mahomes Is a Bad Bet to Win 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Patrick Mahomes enters the 2026 NFL season on the comeback trail, literally and figuratively. He is working back from a torn ACL, and he is also the betting favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year at +185 on DraftKings. That price is exactly the problem. Mahomes is a fine story, but he is a short number in a market stacked with players who missed far more time and have far better stories to tell.
Mahomes is the NFL’s posterboy. He may ultimately go down as the greatest quarterback of all time, so anytime the league has an opportunity to prop him up, it does not hesitate.
That is why we need to take his Comeback Player odds seriously. In that same breath, there is a case against him winning. Being the favorite in an award market does not automatically mean you will collect, and this particular market is deeper than usual.
Looking to bet this market but not sure you want to back Mahomes? Join me as I go over a few reasons why he may actually be a bad Comeback Player of the Year bet, and where I would rather put the money. If you are working through the rest of the board this summer, our NFL futures guide covers how these preseason markets are priced.
Patrick Mahomes Is Being Priced Like He’s Already Won
My biggest issue with backing Mahomes is the price. He carries odds that suggest he is close to a lock, sitting at +185 on DraftKings as of July 27, 2026. Depending on where you shop, you will find him anywhere from +150 to +200, so the number itself is still moving.
That still gets bettors plus money on the face of the NFL, but I think there is better value further down the board. Even if I am wrong about that, this is a volatile and highly opinionated award, and it is one that demands we turn over every realistic stone.
Put simply, I am not a fan of the odds here. Mahomes is 100% in the conversation and he is without a doubt the biggest household name in it. He is not the only one, though, and his pricing is not very alluring.
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Shop the Favorite Before You Take Him
Mahomes has traded between +150 and +200 across the market since these odds opened. On a futures ticket you are holding until January, that spread is the difference between a fair price and a bad one. Award prices move all summer, so confirm the current number at your book before you bet.
Voters Will Expect MVP-Level Numbers
The expectations for Mahomes are going to be pretty high, and that is the trap. This is a three-time Super Bowl champion and former NFL MVP. If he is going to bounce back from a torn ACL and win this award, he has to return and be something close to what we have come to expect.
Simply getting back on the field and posting middling numbers in another ho-hum season probably will not suffice. Lest you forget, Mahomes was not exactly lighting it up before the injury. He threw 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in 14 games last year, which ranked 17th in the league in passing scores, and Kansas City finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs entirely.
The bar for his production has been sliding for a while now. He tossed 41 touchdowns back in 2022, and he has not sniffed even 30 since.
| Season | Passing TDs | Games Played |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 41 | 17 |
| 2023 | 27 | 16 |
| 2024 | 26 | 16 |
| 2025 | 22 | 14 |
A 25-touchdown season where he leads the Chiefs back to the playoffs would be a return to form, so to speak, but it would not be otherworldly production. That is the big question. Is simply getting back to what he was doing going to be good enough, or will voters demand a true return to his previous elite form plus real success for his Chiefs?
Considering DraftKings has Kansas City back as the AFC West favorite at +160, ahead of the Chargers and the division-champion Broncos, the expectations may be higher than you think. You can see how the rest of that board shakes out in our NFL division odds breakdown.
Another Comeback Story Could Be More Compelling
The narrative is the biggest reason I do not want to bet Mahomes here. Pricing and expectations matter, but this award is decided by voters weighing stories against each other, and his is thinner than the field’s.
He is a superstar, but Mahomes has not faced any more adversity than anyone else in contention. Players tear ACLs all the time, and his injury came very late in the year. He went down in Week 15 against the Chargers, tearing both the ACL and the LCL in his left knee, and had surgery the next day. That cost him three full games.
Had Mahomes been injured in Week 1 or very early in the year, the optics would be much different. He was there for almost all of it, and he did not elevate Kansas City enough to make his journey back as awe-inducing as it could have been. The other narratives are simply more compelling. Here are the players who may have much stronger cases in 2026, with DraftKings prices checked on July 27.
| Player (Team) | Odds | The Case |
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | +450 | A knee sprain, a hamstring strain and a dislocated elbow cost him 10 games. Washington shut him down and finished 5-12. |
| Kyler Murray (MIN) | +550 | Limited to five games by a foot injury, watched Jacoby Brissett hold the job, then got released and signed in Minnesota. |
| Micah Parsons (GB) | +1000 | Torn ACL plus a meniscus procedure in December. He is targeting mid-October and will not practice until September. |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | +1600 | Tore his ACL in Week 4 last September. He has not committed to Week 1, but he is expected to work into camp. |
| George Kittle (SF) | +2000 | Ruptured his Achilles in San Francisco’s January wild-card win and is somehow tracking ahead of schedule for Week 1. |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | +2000 | Tore his Achilles and fractured his fibula in Week 14 with the Colts 8-5. He is cleared for everything and should start Week 1. |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG) | +2800 | Dislocated ankle, fractured fibula and ligament damage in Week 8, emergency surgery, nine games gone. Expected back for Week 1. |
Those are the big ones in terms of injury. Deshaun Watson (+4500) is out there too, having ruptured the same Achilles twice and missed all of last season, along with Tua Tagovailoa (+4000), Garrett Wilson (+3000) and Geno Smith (+5000), all of whom endured hardship through other means.
Every one of those players has a valid case for a stronger backing narrative than Mahomes. Several also have viable paths to productive 2026 campaigns and team success, which is the combination this award actually rewards.
For instance, if Kyler Murray goes from benched Arizona castoff to full Sam Darnold for the Minnesota Vikings, it is Murray over Mahomes all day. Then you have guys overcoming far worse injuries. Daniel Jones and George Kittle returning to produce at a high level after tearing an Achilles would put them ahead of Mahomes, too.
Just think about the optics if Watson came back from two ruptured Achilles to put up big numbers and guide the Browns to the playoffs. The moral of the story is that this is one of the more competitive Comeback Player of the Year markets we have ever seen, and Mahomes does not have a strong narrative compared to the rest of the field.
Recovery Doesn’t Guarantee Peak Performance
Right up there with the narrative problem is a real risk that Mahomes is not the same player after this injury. He was fully cleared to participate in training camp on July 24 and is pushing hard for Week 1, which is genuinely good news for his odds. Being cleared and being yourself are two different things.
- He is coming back quickly from a repair that involved two ligaments, not one
- Hampered mobility would take away a real chunk of his game
Players tend to make quick recoveries from ACL tears in terms of being officially cleared. He can get back out there and move around, but can he be the same player he was? ACL recoveries generally go well, and players who rely on quick movement, speed and explosive play through their legs often do not return to an elite level for about a year.
Mahomes has even specifically said he plans to run less.
Patrick Mahomes (knee) on changes to his play this season:
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) July 24, 2026
“I think I ran a little bit too much last season… If all else fails, I’ll just hand it off to K9 and let him go to work.” pic.twitter.com/dLlhbMqdc2
In fairness, that cuts both ways. Mahomes ran more than ever in 2025, averaging a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game with five rushing scores, and Kansas City went out and added Kenneth Walker to the backfield. Leaning on a real running back is smart roster management as much as it is knee caution.
It is still not what you want from a betting angle. Mahomes keeps drives alive by picking up first downs with his legs, and his mobility extends plays and buys him time to find open receivers downfield. Without that threat, he loses two advantages he previously owned against NFL defenses, which could disrupt his timing, dent Kansas City’s offensive production and drag the whole team down with it.
Better Betting Values on the Board
Because of everything above, I am looking at non-Mahomes bets when trying to predict who wins this award. A long list of players stands out, but here are my personal favorites with a quick note on why I like each one.
| Player | Odds | Why They’re Interesting |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | +550 | Dual-threat QB in a brilliant system with a loaded arsenal of weapons. |
| George Kittle | +2000 | A massive piece of the 49ers’ puzzle, and elite stats plus a Week 1 return would be impressive. |
| Daniel Jones | +2000 | Cleared for everything after an Achilles tear, and the Colts were 8-5 in his starts. |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +4000 | Could start in a new system with a loaded offense in Atlanta if he wins the job. |
One name I am staying away from despite an obvious story: Tyreek Hill. He dislocated his knee and tore multiple ligaments, has had two surgeries, and roughly 10 months on he told reporters he has no power in his left leg. Miami released him and he is still unsigned. The narrative would be enormous, but you cannot bet a player who does not have a team.
Who Will Win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Kyler Murray at +550 is where I would put the money right now. Let’s not get it twisted, though. Mahomes is favored for a reason. He is still a plus-money bet on the NFL’s golden boy, and if he plays the whole year, gets the Chiefs back to the playoffs and posts solid numbers, he can absolutely win it.
One more point in his favor worth saying out loud: a quarterback has won this award in seven of the last eight seasons. The position bias is real, and it is the strongest argument against everything I just laid out.
There is still quite a bit working against him. With a pocket quarterback, a torn ACL might be less of an issue. Mahomes specifically relies on his mobility, and he has told us himself he intends to use it less. If he is not fully himself early, that can carry through the season.
On top of that, there is value everywhere else on this board. From bounce-back narratives to more devastating injuries, I just like other bets better. Murray was cast aside by the Cardinals and is basically viewed as a washed bust. If Minnesota helps him rediscover his form in a year where the Vikings return to the playoff mix, he is a strong ticket at +550.
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Our 2026 Comeback Player of the Year Take
Patrick Mahomes (+185) is the favorite and a fair one, but the price is short for a player who missed three games on a 6-11 team. Kyler Murray (+550) is our pick, with Daniel Jones (+2000) and George Kittle (+2000) as the longshots worth smaller tickets. Award odds move all summer, so confirm the current number before you bet.
If you are building out a full slate of NFL futures this summer, it is worth pairing this market with the 2026 NFL MVP odds, the team win totals that look mispriced, and the latest Super Bowl 2027 odds. Award markets like this one tend to move together with team success, so the tickets often overlap more than you would expect.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Still weighing the 2026 Comeback Player of the Year market? Here are quick answers to the questions bettors are asking most about Mahomes and the rest of the board.
Who is favored to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2026?
Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +185 on DraftKings as of July 27, 2026. Jayden Daniels (+450) and Kyler Murray (+550) are next on the board, and Mahomes has traded anywhere from +150 to +200 across the market since these odds opened.
Is Patrick Mahomes actually worth betting at +185?
We do not think so, mostly because of the price rather than the player. Mahomes missed only three games on a 6-11 team, so his comeback story is thinner than several longshots on the board, and at +185 you are paying a premium for the biggest name rather than the best case.
When did Patrick Mahomes tear his ACL, and how many games did he miss?
He tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15 against the Chargers on December 14, 2025, and had surgery the following day. He missed the Chiefs’ final three games, and Kansas City finished 6-11 without a playoff berth.
Will Mahomes be ready to play in Week 1?
All signs point to yes. He was fully cleared to participate in training camp on July 24, 2026 and is reportedly pushing hard for the opener. Being cleared is not the same as being back to his old form, which is the real question for this bet.
Which longshot has the best case to win Comeback Player of the Year?
Kyler Murray at +550 is our pick of the board. He was limited to five games by a foot injury, watched Jacoby Brissett hold the job, got released by Arizona and landed in Minnesota, which is the kind of fall-and-rise arc voters reward if the Vikings win games.
How does a player actually win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
It is decided by a vote of media members who cover the league, not by a statistical formula. That means the story matters as much as the numbers, and a player returning from a longer absence or a more serious injury often has an edge over one who missed just a few weeks.
