College Football Playoff Re-Predictions After Week 4

Florida beat Ole Miss by 24 points on Saturday, and one afternoon later the whole bottom half of our playoff bracket looked different. Here are our College Football Playoff predictions after Week 4: Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Miami take the four first-round byes; Texas, Indiana, Alabama and Florida host first-round games; and LSU, Oregon, Big 12 favorite Texas Tech and Group of Six favorite Boise State fill out the 12-team field. The biggest calls are Florida in, Ole Miss out, and AP No. 1 Texas sliding to the No. 5 seed, because we have Georgia winning the SEC and Texas has more ranked opponents left than anyone else in the AP top five.

These predictions aren’t a gut feel. We lined up the September 27 AP Top 25, ESPN’s Football Power Index as updated on the morning of October 1, Kalshi’s make-the-playoff market and the national championship futures board at five sportsbooks, pulled at 11:01 a.m. ET on October 1, 2026. Where those sources agree, we followed them. Where they split, we made a call and told you why.

Our Projected 12-Team College Football Playoff Field After Week 4

Twelve teams, seeded one through 12, with the byes going to Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Miami. Under the 2026-27 CFP format, the four Power Four conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of Six team get automatic bids, and Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot if it finishes inside the top 12 of the final rankings. The four highest-ranked teams get the byes whether or not they won a conference.

The Kalshi column is the bid and ask on each team’s “makes the College Football Playoff” contract, which pays $1 if the team gets in. Treat it as the traders’ rough read, not an exact probability: Kalshi lists no Boise State contract at all, so the book is incomplete and can’t be normalized the way a full futures board can.

What Would the First Round Look Like?

If the season ended on our projection, the higher seed would host all four first-round games on campus on December 18-19, and the winners would advance to meet the top four seeds in the quarterfinals:

• No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas, with the winner facing No. 4 Miami
• No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Indiana, with the winner facing No. 3 Notre Dame
• No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Alabama, with the winner facing No. 2 Ohio State
• No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Florida, with the winner facing No. 1 Georgia

Five SEC teams in one bracket sounds greedy until you check the market. Kalshi’s conference-representation contracts put “5+ SEC teams in the playoff” at 48 to 55 cents, essentially a coin flip, and “4+ SEC teams” at 81 to 92 cents. Our fifth SEC team is LSU in the No. 9 slot, which is also the spot in this bracket we’d bet least confidently on.

What Changed After Week 4?

Mostly the SEC’s middle class, plus Oregon. Florida’s 52-28 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss moved the Gators from No. 21 to No. 8 in the AP poll, the biggest jump of the week, and the markets moved even harder than the voters did. Here’s how the teams that moved the most looked before Week 4 kicked off and on Thursday morning:

The “Sept. 24” Kalshi column is each contract’s last trade before the Week 4 games began, and the Oct. 1 column is Thursday morning’s bid and ask. Title odds are our archive’s five-book consensus from 4:06 p.m. ET on Friday, September 25 (before Indiana kicked off against Northwestern that night) and from Thursday morning.

Four results drove most of that table:

• Florida 52, Ole Miss 28. The Gators closed as roughly 4-point favorites at home and covered by nearly 20. They’re now 4-0 with a road win at Auburn already banked, and ESPN ranks their strength of record second in the country.
• Oregon 41, USC 27. The Ducks’ road win lifted them five spots to No. 15 and pushed their playoff contract up about 11 cents, while USC fell six spots to No. 18 with its first loss. It came at a cost: quarterback Dante Moore left in an ambulance after a late hit in the second quarter and was diagnosed with a concussion, with clean MRI and CT scans and no return timeline, per ESPN. Dylan Raiola finished the game, and Oregon has a bye before hosting UCLA on October 10.
• LSU 35, Texas A&M 6. A week after losing at Ole Miss, LSU crushed a ranked Texas A&M team at home, and its playoff contract climbed from 41 cents to about 50. That result is why we have LSU in and Ole Miss out.
• Texas 20, Tennessee 17. Texas stayed 4-0 and kept 62 first-place votes, but it was a 5-point favorite in Knoxville and won by three. The market mostly shrugged: Texas’ title price didn’t move off +600 in our consensus.

Indiana is the quiet mover. The defending national champions beat Northwestern 29-23 on Friday night as 20.5-point favorites, dropped a spot to No. 6 despite the win, and are now 0-4 against the closing spread this season, the only 0-4 ATS team in the AP top 10 by our archive’s closing lines. Their title odds drifted from +900 to +1100. We still have the Hoosiers in comfortably at No. 6, but we’d no longer call them a bye team.

Why Is Texas Only the No. 5 Seed in Our Bracket?

Because we’re predicting where Texas finishes, not where it sits today, and we have Georgia winning the SEC. Texas is the likeliest playoff team in the country by ESPN’s model (89.9%), so the question is seeding, not whether it gets in. Georgia and Texas don’t play each other in the regular season, so the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta on December 5 is the likeliest place for them to meet, and the loser of that game would be hard to seed ahead of four teams that won their leagues or went unbeaten. Before any of that, Texas faces five teams in this week’s AP Top 25, the most of anyone in the top five:

Texas has also looked like a team that wins without separating. It’s 1-3 against the closing spread, including a 24-23 win over Ohio State and Saturday’s three-point escape in Knoxville. Georgia, by contrast, is 4-0 against the spread and covered by an average of 10 points per game, including a 41-13 win over Oklahoma as an 11.5-point favorite. That’s the gap behind our SEC champion call.

We should be honest about how thin this call is. Kalshi’s top-four-seed market prices Ohio State (47 to 52 cents), Texas (44 to 52), Georgia (45 to 49) and Notre Dame (39 to 51) within a few cents of each other, with Miami (35 to 45) close behind. Five teams, four byes, and the traders can’t separate them. Two things push us toward Notre Dame and Miami:

• Softer roads. ESPN ranks Notre Dame’s remaining schedule 55th and Miami’s 36th, against Texas’ 14th. FPI gives Notre Dame a 39.0% chance to win out, the best of any contender, and Texas 17.5%.
• A built-in tiebreaker. Miami visits Notre Dame on November 7. Whoever wins that game has the inside track to a bye, and we expect the loser to stay in the field either way (Miami through the ACC title, Notre Dame through its top-12 guarantee).

Ohio State is the weakest link in our top four. ESPN ranks its remaining schedule seventh and projects the Buckeyes to finish around 9.7-2.8, with trips to Iowa and Indiana and home games against Oregon and Michigan still ahead. We keep them at No. 2 because they’re the Kalshi favorite to win the Big Ten (43 to 44 cents), and a Big Ten champion with one loss, to No. 1 Texas by a point, would have a strong case for a bye. If the Buckeyes lose again before November, Texas is the first team we’d move up.

Who Wins Each Conference’s Automatic Bid?

Our picks match the Kalshi favorite in every conference, and only the ACC looks close to settled. Here’s what the conference-champion markets said on Thursday morning:

The Big 12 is the league most likely to wreck this bracket. Texas Tech, Utah and BYU are all unbeaten, none is priced above a one-in-three shot to win the league, and ESPN’s model has Utah and Texas Tech dead even at a 48.9% playoff chance apiece. We lean Texas Tech because the Kalshi traders do. If Utah wins the league instead, it simply takes the No. 11 slot, and the Big 12 almost certainly stays a one-bid league unless its champion finishes very high.

Who Are the First Teams Out?

Ole Miss, Utah, BYU and James Madison are our first four out, in roughly that order. Each is one result away from swapping places with somebody in the field:

• Ole Miss (3-1, No. 9). The Rebels own a head-to-head win over LSU, which is why the AP still has them ahead of the Tigers. We still have LSU in and Ole Miss out, because LSU answered that loss by beating Texas A&M 35-6 while Ole Miss lost by 24 in Gainesville, and the markets agree: Ole Miss is 34 to 36 cents to make the playoff against LSU’s 49 to 51. The Rebels visit Texas on October 24 and host Georgia on November 7, so they’ll get chances to flip this.
• Utah (4-0, No. 13). Utah is in the moment it wins the Big 12. As an at-large team it’s a long shot, because its remaining schedule ranks 61st by ESPN’s measure. Its biggest game left is BYU at home on November 7.
• BYU (3-0, No. 10). BYU has the Big 12’s best chance at a statement win, hosting Notre Dame on October 17. First it plays at TCU on Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite.
• James Madison (4-0, unranked). JMU is the Group of Six alternative to Boise State (see the box above).

Two more names are worth watching. Mississippi State is 4-0 and up to No. 16 after beating Missouri 31-24, and it hosts Alabama on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. Iowa is 4-0 and No. 14 after a 20-19 win at Michigan on the final play, and it hosts Ohio State as a 14.5-point underdog. A win in either game would put that team squarely in this conversation.

Who Do We Predict Will Win the National Championship?

Georgia. The Bulldogs are the top-rated team in ESPN’s FPI, the only contender in the AP top five that has covered every game, and the favorite on Kalshi’s championship market at 17 to 18 cents. The sportsbooks still make Ohio State the favorite, though, and none of that turns Georgia into a bargain:

Bold prices are the longest on offer for that team among the four books. The median devigged share is the market’s own estimate once the vig is stripped out of each book’s full board, which sums to well over 100% before you remove it.

Run the Georgia numbers and the problem is obvious. The best price, +550 at FanDuel and BetMGM, needs Georgia to win the title 15.4% of the time to break even, and the four books put the Bulldogs at about 12.5%. Kalshi is the most bullish market on Georgia, and even its normalized championship book puts the Bulldogs at about 15.4%, right at that break-even line rather than above it. Picking Georgia to win and betting Georgia to win are two different decisions, and the Bulldogs’ toughest stretch starts soon: at Alabama on October 10, Florida in Atlanta on October 31 and at Ole Miss on November 7.

Which Week 5 Games Could Change These Predictions?

Three of this week’s games involve teams on both sides of our bubble, and Texas has an open date before the Red River game. Lines below are the median spread across the regulated books we pulled on Thursday morning:

• Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (Alabama -5.5, noon ET): a Bulldogs upset would knock our No. 7 seed down and give Mississippi State a real at-large case.
• Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (Ohio State -14.5, 3:30 p.m. ET): our Big Ten pick visits an unbeaten team, and a second Buckeyes loss would put their bye in serious doubt.
• Florida at No. 25 Missouri (Florida about -5, 3:30 p.m. ET): the Gators’ first test since the Ole Miss rout, and a letdown loss would reopen the door for Ole Miss.

Miami at Clemson (Miami about -17, 7:30 p.m. ET) and BYU at TCU (BYU -6.5) matter too, just less. Our weekly look at the most overvalued team in the top 10 tracks which of these contenders the market may be leaning on too hard, and it updates every Monday.

How Should You Bet College Football Playoff Futures Now?

Shop every price, favor the “make the playoff” type of bet over the title if your read is about the bracket, and keep stakes small until October sorts out the Big 12 and the SEC. Here’s how we’d use these predictions this week:

• Never take the short number. Georgia pays $550 per $100 at FanDuel and BetMGM and $500 at DraftKings and BetRivers. Texas pays $625 at BetRivers and $550 at BetMGM. Those gaps are free money compared with picking the book you happen to have open.
• Match the bet to your opinion. If you believe Florida is a playoff team, a title ticket at +2000 also needs the Gators to win three or four playoff games. Kalshi’s make-the-playoff contract (57 to 58 cents) prices the thing you actually believe. Our Kalshi review covers how those contracts and their fees work, and they aren’t legal in every state.
• Size it like a long-term hold. A title ticket bought today ties up your stake until the national championship game on January 25, 2027, in Las Vegas. Our futures betting guide explains how cash-out offers and hedging work if your team is still alive in December.

After Week 4, the playoff picture is sharper at the top and messier at the bottom. Our call is that Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Miami earn the byes, and that the fight for the last four spots runs through Austin, where Florida and Ole Miss visit on back-to-back Saturdays in October. Selection Day is December 6, and a lot of this bracket has two months to prove us wrong.

College Football Playoff Predictions FAQ

Quick answers to the playoff questions we’re hearing most after Week 4.

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Paul Wilson is the Editor-in-Chief at GamblingSite.com, bringing more than 15 years of experience across sports betting and iGaming. He has spent his career focused on honest, hype-free coverage of the industry — favoring lines, value, and substance over the "lock of the century" marketing that crowds the space. A recreational bettor himself, Paul leads editorial coverage with an emphasis on transparency and practical insight, from expert site reviews to in-depth betting guides. His mission at GamblingSite.com is to help readers cut through the noise and understand where the industry is genuinely heading.

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