The Ultimate Betting Guide to the 2024 NCAA Men’s Sweet 16: Bet Bets and Predictions
The first weekend of the 2024 NCAA March Madness tournament just wrapped up, and hoo boy, was it a hoopla (sorry)! Oakland took out Kentucky, James Madison dispatched Wisconsin, Yale surprised Auburn, and Duquesne edged out BYU. It seems like Cinderella stories are the norm, at least until the second round, where the usual suspects tend to take control.
And the Sweet 16 is on the horizon, the part of the tourney where the heavy hitters rule, and upsets by mid-major teams become way less common before paring down to the Elite Eight!
This is the moment when the real contenders begin to attract the attention of millions of basketball fans and bettors, all glued to their screens, watching the road to the national championship. As the battles get fiercer, the betting lines tighten. The days of teams being heavily favored by 10-20 points are behind us, so we need to get our research in ship shape with a laser focus on the analysis of odds and betting patterns.
If you’re searching for an indispensable guide to the best bets for the Sweet 16, you’re in the right spot! We don’t just have betting tips–we have the latest trends and predictions for 2024 March Madness as it heads into its second weekend.
What You Need to Know
- Even though they were co-favorites with Duke when the odds were released around a year ago, Connecticut has remained the favorite to win it all throughout the season.
- Pre-tournament odds had UConn as the heavy favorite. What is the track record of pre-tournament favorites in terms of March Madness performance?
- Nine times—in 2018, at Villanova, in 2005, in 2009, at UNC, in 2013, at Louisville, in 2012 at Kentucky, in 2007, at Florida, in 2001 at Duke, and in 2000 at Michigan State—has the pre-tournament favorite gone on to win it all.
- Clemson is the extremely unlikely favorite to win it all at an odds of 100 to 1. Clemson was 200-1 to win the season and 150-1 to win the NCAA Tournament.
- While the odds on Purdue, Iowa State, Creighton, and Alabama have remained the same, the odds on 12 of the remaining 16 teams have inevitably decreased since the Big Dance began.
- Two other major stories are San Diego State and North Carolina State. Although they started the tournament at 200-1 odds, the Wolfpack were 1,000-1 back on March 11. The Aztecs are hoping for a repeat performance. Currently, their score is 80-1. They started the season last year at 80-1 odds and carried that lead into the NCAA Tournament.
March Madness Sweet 16 Odds, Lines & Point Spreads
Here are the latest odds for the Sweet 16 round of March Madness, featuring point spreads, money lines, and over/under totals for each matchup. These odds are provided by BetMGM.
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Clemson +7.5 (-110) | O152.5 (-105) | Clemson +250 |
San Diego St +10.5 (+100) | O135.5 (-110) | San Diego St +475 |
Alabama +4.5 (-110) | O173.5 (-110) | Alabama +160 |
Illinois +1.5 (-110) | O146.5 (-105) | Illinois +105 |
NC State +6.5 (-110) | O151.5 (-105) | NC State +230 |
Gonzaga +5.5 (-110) | O154.5 (-110) | Gonzaga +195 |
Duke +3.5 (+100) | O134.5 (-105) | Duke +155 |
Creighton +2.5 (-110) | O144.5 (-110) | Creighton +120 |
Best March Madness Bets for the Sweet 16
For the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, there are some interesting matchups and predictions to think about—here’s a brief overview of your best bets!
- Gonzaga vs. McNeese State: Gonzaga is favored due to its efficient offense and experienced players like Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg, and Anton Watson. They have a strong matchup against McNeese State and potential favorable matchups in the Round of 32 against either Kansas or Samford.
- Mississippi State vs. Michigan State and potentially North Carolina: Mississippi State, known for its physical defense and rebounding, could upset Michigan State and pose a challenge to North Carolina with their physicality.
Important Matchups on Thursday, March 28, 2024
- Clemson vs. Arizona: Betting on Clemson +7
- San Diego State vs. UConn: San Diego State is at +10.5
- Alabama vs. North Carolina: North Carolina is favored by -4
- Illinois vs. Iowa State: Iowa State at -2
Important Matchups on Friday, March 29, 2024
- N.C. State vs. Marquette: Marquette is favored at -6.5
- Gonzaga vs. Purdue: Gonzaga at +5.5
- Duke vs. Houston: Houston at -4
- Creighton vs. Tennessee: Tennessee at -3
March Madness Trends to Watch
- Defensive Dominance: Teams that have consistently shown strong defensive performances tend to excel in the pressure-cooker environment of the Sweet 16.
- Three-Point Reliance: In today’s game, a team’s ability to hit from beyond the arc can be a game-changer. However, beware of teams that rely too heavily on three-pointers, as an off night can end their season.
- The Coaching Factor: Coaches with a history of navigating the complexities of March Madness successfully often have tricks up their sleeves. Their strategic decisions in crunch time can be pivotal.
- Double-digit favorites are 14-3 ATS, and favorites are 30-22 ATS.
- Favorites performed 15-2 straight-up and 11-5 ATS in the round of 32.
- The first four seeds are 21-9 ATS and 26-4 straight-up.
- The public placed bets on the favorites, who are 38-13 ATS.
Betting Trends for the Sweet 16 Games
We are getting to the point in the season where betting trends can be hard to come by. All of these teams are hot. Nevertheless, our team dug into the trends for every game and every team to identify a key betting trend for each matchup.
- In five of Clemon’s past six games and seven of his previous nine outings for Arizona, the total has gone under.
- In their previous nine games, UConn is 8-1 ATS, while SDSU is 2-6 in their last eight.
- This season, Alabama is 1-7 as an underdog, while North Carolina has gone 8-1 as a favorite in their previous 9 games.
- Five straight Illinois games and seven straight Illinois games at neutral sites have had the total go above.
- While NC State has been 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog, Marquette has been 7-0 in its last 7 games as a favorite.
- Purdue is 10-1 straight-up in their last 11 games against the WCC, while Gonzaga is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Big 10.
- For both Duke and Houston, the total has remained below in seven of the previous ten games.
- Over their last six games, Creighton is 5-1 ATS and 8-2 ATS.
Sweet 16 Betting Tips
- Research: At this stage, every team has shown its cards, so get all up into their recent performances, head-to-head matchups, and how they’ve handled pressure.
- Consider the Underdogs: The Sweet 16 is notorious for its surprises, so don’t be scared to back a lower-seeded team if the conditions seem ripe for an upset—although predictions say this is unlikely.
- Research: At this stage, every team has shown its cards, so get all up into their recent performances, head-to-head matchups, and how they’ve handled pressure.
- Consider the Underdogs: The Sweet 16 is notorious for its surprises, so don’t be scared to back a lower-seeded team if the conditions seem ripe for an upset—although predictions say this is unlikely.
- Keep a Close Eye on Player Matchups: Individual matchups can turn the tide of a game—look for mismatches you can exploit for your betting success!
- Don’t Ever Underestimate Experience: Teams with a solid run in past tournaments are likely to have a psychological edge over teams that haven’t been to the show before.
- Choose the Right Betting Platform: The platform you bet with can be just as crucial as the bet itself. Choose a reputable sports betting app that offers competitive odds, a wide range of betting options, and rock-solid security. Remember, a smooth betting experience can be the difference between frustration and victory.
Final Insights
The Sweet 16 is where legends are made, and fortunes can be won or lost on the turn of a game. With the right mix of research, intuition, and a bit (or a lot) of luck, you can make this next round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament both exciting and profitable.
Don’t forget that betting should always be done responsibly, and what matters most is taking in the excitement that is March Madness.
