A Progressive Sports Betting Strategy

Betting on sports is fun, but it’s hard to make enough money to beat the vig and turn a profit. I know that the sports books make a fairly consistent profit, and that means that the average sports bettor is a consistent loser.

Of course, there are a small percentage of sports bettors who can beat the book, but it takes a great deal of work. On the other hand, what if you had a strategy that gave you a chance to bet on several contest with a chance to get a big win?

Your chances of success are small, but this isn’t different than your chances now. Keep reading to learn a system based on increasing your bets after wins with the hope of profiting from a series of wins. Once you understand the strategy, you can decide if it’s worth the risk to try for a big win.

The Sports Betting Progressive Strategy

Start with a goal that’s high enough that it’s a significant amount of money, but not so high that it’s impossible to reach. The amount that qualifies as significant varies from person to person, but for our example let’s use $10,000. This is just over 10 times starting with a $1,100 bankroll.

The reason the example starts with a $1,100 bankroll is because most even money sports bets are made at $110 to win $100. After you set your goal, you split your bankroll into 10 equal parts. Each part is used as a separate series, explained below.

In this example, you’ve got 10 series starting with a $110 to win $100 wager. The hope is to use the profits from one or more series to continue making larger bets until you reach your goal of $10,000.

In order to give yourself a chance to continue working toward your goal longer, in this system you don’t roll over your entire series win on each bet. Instead, you take 45% of the win and use it to start a new series. On a winning bet of $110 to win $100, your profit on the bet is $100. So your next bet in the series is $165 to win $150, and you have a new series starting with the other $45 in profit.

You can start the series with a $44 bet to win $40, or you can combine two or three extra profits of $45 to start a series with $90 or $135. Another option is to put all of your 45% profits into one place and start another series with $110 every time you get enough to do so.

100% Progressive System

If you roll over 100% of your profits on wins you have to win seven straight bets to get from $110 to $10,000.

Here are the numbers:

  • $110 to win $100 = $210
  • $210 to win $190.91 = $400.91
  • $400.91 to win $364.46 = $765.37
  • $765.37 to win $695.79 = $1,461.16
  • $1,461.16to win $1,328.33 = $2,789.49
  • $2,789.49 to win $2,535.90 = $5,325.39
  • $5,325.29 to win $4,841.26 = $10,166.55

Now, consider how hard it is to win seven bets in a row. It’s not impossible, but it doesn’t happen very often. The average sports bettor wins 50% of the even money bets they place. This means statistically if they start with 10 bets they win five of them. From five bets, they win 2.5 of them. If we round up that means they win three of them. Then they win 1.5 of those. Rounding up, this means they win two. Then they win one. And finally, they win or lose the next bet, but even if they win the next bet they’re likely to lose the next.

The reason I went through this is to show, even when rounding up in two places instead of down, and assuming a win on the first 50 / 50 shot after getting down to one, the average bettor, starting with 10 bets, only wins five games in a row on one series, and the other nine series end earlier.
It’s extremely rare for a sports bettor to be able to beat the sports book 60% of the time, but let’s look at the statistics at 60%.

  • Six wins on the original 10 bets.
  • 3.6 wins on the remaining series, rounded up to four.
  • 2.4 wins on the remaining series, rounded up to three.
  • 1.8 wins on the remaining series, rounded up to two.
  • 1.2 wins on the remaining series, rounded down to one.
  • .6 wins, rounded up to one.
  • .6 wins rounded down to zero.

Even if you can win at a 60% rate, with the outcomes rounded up in your favor twice when they should be rounded down, you only reach six wins in a series.

You need to understand three important things at this point.

  1. If you can win 60%of the time, all you have to do is make straight bets and you’re going to reach your profit goals eventually. You don’t need to use any type of progressive system.
  2. Realistically, there’s no chance you’re good enough to beat the sports book at a 60% rate in the long run. Only a few bettors in the world are this good and they aren’t reading blog posts about systems. They’re working their own system and making a great deal of money.
  3. In the real world the numbers don’t get rounded in your favor. The actual percentages work out in the long run, so even the 60% winner rarely wins more than five games in a row starting with 10 series of bets.

55% Progressive System

I hope you can see how hard it is to win seven bets in a row. This leads to a couple other things you need to understand.

If you only roll 55% of your profits forward, you’re going to need to win more than seven games in a series to reach your goal. But, because you’re staring new series, you have more chances to have a long run of wins in an individual series. The bottom line is that it’s a long shot to reach the goal of $10,000 starting with $1,100. But common sense should tell you this anyway.

Here’s how many bets you need to win in a row rolling 55% of your profits forward:

  • $110 to win $100 = $110 return plus $55 to roll forward and $45 into the new series pool.
  • $165 to win $150 = $165 return plus $82.50 to roll and $67.50 into new series pool.

Before continuing with this series, I want to make a point. From these two bets you now have $112.50 in the new series pool so you can start a new series at $110 to win $100. If you win at a 50% rate, this means that 25% of the time on average you’re going to win the first two bets in a series. In other words, on 1 out of every 4 series you start, you’re going to win enough for the new series pool to start a new series. This is why I suggest this system. You create new series as you go.

  • $247.50 to win $225 = $247.50 return plus $123.75 to roll and $101.25 into new series pool.
  • $371.25 to win $337.50 = $371.25 return plus $185.63 to roll and $167.06 into new series pool.
  • $556.88 to win $506.25 = $556.88 return plus $278.44 to roll and $250.60 into new series pool.
  • $835.32 to win $759.38 = $835.32 return plus $417.66 to roll and $341.72 into new series pool.

Realize that at this point you’ve doubled your starting stake won enough to start several new series. I talk about this more in the next section, but you could take your original starting stake of $1,100 back out at this point and continue with your other series.

  • $1,252.98 to win $1,139.07 = $1,252.98 return plus $626.49 to roll and $512.58 into new series pool.
  • $1,879.47 to win $1,708.61 = $ 1,879.47 return plus $939.74 to roll and $ 768.87 into new series pool.
  • $2,819.21 to win $2,562.92 = $2,819.21 return plus $1,409.61 to roll and $1,153.31 into new series pool.
  • $4,228.82 to win $3,844.38 = $4,228.82 return plus $2,114.41 to roll and $1,729.97 into new series pool.
  • $6,343.24 to win $5,766.58 = $ 6,343.24 return plus $3,171.62 to roll and $2,594.96 into new series pool.

At this point you’ve actually reached your goal because your total after winning the last wager is $12,200.82. This means that you have to have a series win 11 bets in a row to reach this point. If you stop after winning 10 bets in a row your total is $8,073.20. And this doesn’t include the total of $3,407.59 you used to start new series through nine winning bets.

Lower Starting Goals

Everything so far has been about starting with $1,100 with a goal of reaching $10,000.But what if your goal was only $5,000 instead of $10,000? You only need to win six bets in a series instead of seven if you roll over 100% of your profits. Though this is still hard, it’s much more likely to happen than winning seven in a series.

You also can quit at any time. Just because you set a goal of $10,000 or $5,000 before you started doesn’t mean you can’t get to the point where you’ve doubled your money and quit. Actually, doubling your money is a good starting goal.

If you can have one winning series out of the 10 you start with that doubles your money you can put your original stake back in your pocket and start a new set of series with your profit. This way you’re playing with house money.

The other thing to consider is starting with a smaller bankroll and smaller bets to start each series. You can start with $110 and make 10 $11 bets with a goal of doubling your money. As soon as you reach $220 you put $110 back in your pocket and reset with a $110 bankroll.

Designing the Right System for Your Goals

The nice thing about sports betting strategy and systems is that you can create your own to help you reach your goals. Now that you understand how a couple simple progressive betting systems work, you can run the numbers on an infinite number of possibilities.

Here’s an example:

You can use the system where you roll 55% of your profits on winning bets and put the other 45% in your pocket as profit. Or you can roll 75% and use 25% for new series or as profit.

The reason I showed you both a 100% roll and a 55% roll is so you can get an idea of how many bets you have to win in a series to reach a big goal. But you learned in the last section, it’s easier to have a lower goal, like doubling your starting stake.

The 55% roll example wasn’t based on a random number. It works with the normal vig paid at 11 to 10 or 110 to 100. But you don’t have to use my systems. Try to come up with your own percentages and then run the math just like I did above.

I like the action of betting on a bunch of games and want to be able to start many series. The 55% roll system works great for me because it helps me start more series while still having a chance to double my money. The 100% roll system gives you the best mathematical chance to reach your goal if you want to split your starting bankroll into series starting amounts, because you don’t have to win as many bets in a row. But it also limits the number of series you can start.

If you simply want the best chance to double your money, the best bet is to wager all of your money on one game. With a 50% chance to win a single game, it gives you the best percentage odds to come out ahead. But it also means you only make one bet.

When betting on sports, you won’t actually double your money on one straight bet. If you bet $1,100 on a game, you only win $1,000 when you win using the common vig. To truly double you need to make another wager after winning the first one.

Here’s an example:

You start with $1,100 with a goal of stopping when you win $1,100. You bet $1,100 to win $1,000 and win. This leaves you $100 short of your goal.

The next bet is $110 to win $100. If you win the second bet you’ve reached your goal. But if you lose the second bet you make a third bet of $231 to win $210. If you lose this bet, the next one is $375.10 to win $341.

You have a good chance to win at least one of the three bets after winning your first one, but you can still lose.  The smart play after winning the first bet is to stop. But most of us want to keep betting on sports, so only you can decide how you want to handle a big win.

Everything Else You Need to Know

Systems like the ones included on this page won’t make you a long term sports betting winner. You can design systems that beat the sports books, but they’re based on research, hard work, and handicapping games.

The systems I showed you above are basically using a common 50 / 50 chance to win, and give you an outside chance at profiting from a long winning streak. If you can combine good handicapping skills with a system like the ones we just covered it gives you a better chance to win.

But if you can handicap games well enough to win, you’re better off just making straight bets instead of using a progressive system. I know I’ve covered this a couple different ways on this page, but it’s important that you understand that the systems included here are money management systems, not long term winning strategies.

Money management systems won’t beat the odds in the long run. They can help you stay in the game longer, but they’re not designed to overcome the house edge.

Using This Strategy on Other Games

The strategies listed above work well with sports betting, but they work just as well on any game with even money bets. You can easily use one of these systems playing black, red, odd, or even on roulette. Craps and baccarat offer even money bets. Blackjack is another option.

The biggest challenge when using one of these strategies on table games is you’re going to need to start on a lower limit table and move to a higher limit table on the series where you win several bets in a row. It’s easier to make small and large sports bets at the same sports book.

The other thing to realize is that the other even money bets don’t give you the same 50% chance to win as the average sport bet does. Each of the other games has a house edge built in that reduces your chance of success to below 50%. The sports book charges vig to create profit instead of having a mathematical edge on the result.

Conclusion

I enjoy working with math to try to come up with ways to beat the casino. I also love the rush of gambling on sporting events. That’s why I designed the 55% progressive system you learned about earlier. It lets me bet on many games, and still have a chance to hit a big win.

If you want to take a shot at a big win while making several bets, and have extra money you want to play with, one of these strategies is a fun way to gamble. But if you want to have the best chance to beat the sports books in the long run, learn how to handicap games.