2026 NFL MVP Odds, Best Bets & Predictions: Expert Picks to Win MVP
The logical preseason NFL MVP bet is Buffalo Bills starting quarterback Josh Allen. He remains the most talented quarterback in all of football, he won the award two seasons ago, and he enters 2026 with the best NFL MVP odds.
Of course, none of that guarantees anything. Allen might be seen as the safe play, but we see projected favorites fail all of the time. Just look at last year, when Allen was the predicted winner by many, only to see the ageless Matthew Stafford rise up and deliver a career year.
The perceived “right” bet isn’t always the winning pick, and that’s why going over the latest NFL MVP odds and landing on several options is suggested. Need help with your process? Join me as I investigate the current prices and gauge some of the best 2026 NFL MVP bets to target.
2026 NFL MVP Picks at a Glance
| Category | Our 2026 Pick |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Joe Burrow (+850) |
| Best Value | Caleb Williams (+1300) |
| Best Sleeper | Trevor Lawrence (+2200) |
| Best Longshot | Kyler Murray (+4000) |
| Favorite We’re Fading | Patrick Mahomes (+1000) |
Just here for our top NFL MVP picks? No problem. Allen is the consensus pick in terms of talent, projected production, and pricing. He’s been here, done that, and he’s the betting favorite for a reason. But there’s no such thing as a lock, and that’s precisely why bettors hunt for value, which opens the door to someone like Joe Burrow, who is my best bet for 2026.
Burrow’s 2025 season was ruined by injury, but the guy has done nothing but balled out at an elite level when healthy. Just look at his nasty 2024 season, where he would have almost certainly been the MVP winner if his team could have found a little more success.
Beyond our top bet, here is the quick read on the rest of the board:
- Caleb Williams (+1300): The Chicago Bears quarterback flashed his insane potential last year, breaking out with a stellar 2025 showing and getting even more magical in the playoffs. If that is who he is all year long (and the Bears are even better than they were last season) he could look like a screaming value at his price tag.
- Trevor Lawrence (+2200): You can get an even better price with T-Law, who also had a special 2025 campaign but was ultimately passed over for Stafford and Drake Maye. He was close, however, and may have the supporting cast and system to launch himself back into the conversation again.
- Kyler Murray (+4000): There may not be a better deep sleeper. Murray has flirted with top-tier production throughout his career, but after flaming out in Arizona, he is the Minnesota Vikings’ latest reclamation project. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is a quarterback whisperer that got career seasons out of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold, so it stands to reason Murray could be at his best yet. If he delivers big numbers during a successful season for the Vikes, he could be a legit NFL MVP threat.
One NFL MVP candidate to steer clear of? Patrick Mahomes. Blasphemy, I know. However, Mahomes is trying to return from a torn ACL, and his Kansas City Chiefs have numerous question marks heading into a new season. Mahomes would not only need to make a speedy recovery, but he’d have to have very few issues en route to a total turnaround for KC.
Latest 2026 NFL MVP Odds
| Player | MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +550 |
| Lamar Jackson | +800 |
| Joe Burrow | +850 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1000 |
| Justin Herbert | +1000 |
| Drake Maye | +1000 |
| Dak Prescott | +1200 |
| Caleb Williams | +1300 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1400 |
| Jordan Love | +1800 |
| Jayden Daniels | +2000 |
| Brock Purdy | +2000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2200 |
| Sam Darnold | +2800 |
| Jalen Hurts | +2800 |
Odds are subject to change throughout training camp and the regular season.
None of the early NFL MVP pricing is that shocking. Allen is in the running yearly and won the trophy in 2024. And to be frank, he was once again in the mix last year.
Allen isn’t alone, though. There are two legit contenders right behind him in Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Both have question marks regarding health and their respective teams, but statistically have the ability to put up massive numbers.
- Joe Burrow: Two years ago Burrow may have won the trophy if his defense had been any good. Now back to full strength after missing time last season, a healthy Burrow could again light the world afire. If his defense obliges, he just might claim the hardware.
- Lamar Jackson: The 2-time NFL MVP winner got off to an amazing start last year, but had his season derailed by injuries. His defense was also inconsistent, and a failure to make the playoffs led to the exit of head coach John Harbaugh. Jackson is back to full strength, in a new system, and everyone is looking at the Ravens as a team that could bounce back in a huge way. If that happens, he could easily be looking at a threepeat situation.
There is a ton of value beyond the top NFL MVP contenders. Before you lock in a ticket at one of the top NFL betting sites, the trick is to first assess if a non-favorite is actually going to win. If so, where does the shocker come from? Is it a quarterback that started spreading their wings last year, or does it come from a completely overlooked source that nobody will see coming?
How NFL MVP Betting Works
The NFL MVP award is based solely on regular season performance. Postseason games do not factor into voting, but a team’s success does play into a player’s evaluation. Because MVP is a season-long futures bet, you lock in a price months before the award is decided, which is exactly where the value lives.
Historically, quarterbacks dominate the NFL MVP award because they influence every offensive snap and accumulate the statistics voters value most. Since modern passing offenses have become the norm, MVP has essentially become a quarterback award unless another position produces a truly historic season.
When evaluating an MVP future, ask yourself these questions:
- Can this player realistically throw for 4,500-plus yards or account for 40+ total touchdowns?
- Can his team finish with 12 or more wins?
- Does he have enough nationally televised games to build momentum?
- Is there a compelling narrative that voters could rally behind?
If the answer is yes across the board, you’ve found a legitimate MVP candidate.
Want to bet on a non-quarterback to win league MVP? Then you really need to aim high. Not only would most of the quarterback pool need to be somewhat underwhelming, but the running back, wide receiver, or tight end would have to enjoy a truly dominant campaign. More than that, that player would almost certainly have to break some type of NFL record, be the main reason for his team’s success, and also be on a team that does well in the win and loss column.
Best Bet to Win NFL MVP: Joe Burrow (+850)
Why We Like This Bet
Burrow is a mad man. He put together an insane 4,900-yard and 43-touchdown campaign two years ago, practically willing a terrible Cincinnati Bengals team into the playoffs. Cincy didn’t make it, of course, which killed Burrow’s MVP case. Last year he was again at the top of his game, but an injury derailed the first half of his season.
I love the dip in odds here, as a healthy Joe Burrow makes for a fantastic NFL MVP bet. The Bengals also worked hard to improve the roster around him and could finally be in position to make another deep playoff run. Stacked with elite offensive weaponry in a winnable division, Burrow is a logical MVP pick that comes in at an arguable discount.
Best NFL MVP Value Bet: Caleb Williams (+1300)
Why We Like This Bet
Caleb Williams seems to be ready to take the torch and be the face of the NFL. It was fair to be skeptical of him as a rookie, but last year he shrugged off most concerns while tossing 27 touchdowns and guiding the Chicago Bears to the NFC North division title.
Once in the playoffs, Williams led a ferocious comeback win over the rival Packers and almost took out the Rams in the second round as well. The individual talent is out of this world. If Williams can play more controlled football, display better accuracy, and get more help from his supporting cast, he could easily be headed for an NFL MVP win.
Best NFL MVP Sleeper: Trevor Lawrence (+2200)
Why We Like This Bet
For a moment there a lot of people were worried Trevor Lawrence would be a bust. It did take some time for the former #1 overall pick to find his footing, but he sure looked comfortable last year, when he tossed 29 touchdowns while leading his Jaguars to the AFC South crown.
T-Law did enough to thrust himself into the NFL MVP race, but couldn’t close the deal. That could change come 2026, as Jacksonville has one of the most loaded offenses. Lawrence winning NFL MVP would require even bigger numbers in the face of stiff competition, but he has all the ingredients of a meteoric rise.
Best NFL MVP Longshot: Kyler Murray (+4000)
Why We Like This Bet
It’s fun to hype up the top NFL MVP contenders, but this is the type of award where true value can often shine through. Nobody really saw Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers winning league MVPs as greybeards, after all, so expecting the unexpected is part of the fun.
Kyler Murray has never been seen as a finished product as a passer, but he can still make big plays and has the ability to be a terror as a runner. Throw him into a brilliant offensive system featuring Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage and Justin Jefferson running routes, and it’s awfully hard to envision him completely failing. To win, though, Murray will need easily his best season to date. It’s far from a lock, but at this cool +4000 price tag, he’s a swing-for-the-fences worth taking.
NFL MVP Picks to Avoid in 2026
Patrick Mahomes (+1000)
Once a yearly contender to win the NFL MVP, Mahomes sees his odds sulk going into 2026. It isn’t that Mahomes can’t still ball, but returning from a torn ACL and trying to pick up the pieces of a lost season feels like a lot to overcome.
In addition, the AFC is only getting better. Heck, Mahomes’ own division has gotten scarier. Add in an aging tight end in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice’s endless injuries and off-field drama, and betting on Mahomes to win MVP feels like a bit of a drag.
Matthew Stafford (+1400)
Stafford remains capable of elite performances, but age, durability, and the Rams’ offensive balance make this number difficult to justify over younger quarterbacks with greater rushing upside.
It’s pretty rare that quarterbacks Stafford’s age put up MVP-level production, but banking on it happening in successive seasons feels ambitious. Not only does Stafford need to be as active near the goal-line as he was last year, but he still needs to be efficient while fending off viable MVP contenders. Don’t get me wrong, this is a pretty great price for a defending MVP. But it’s his price for a reason.
What History Says About NFL MVP Winners
| Trend | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Quarterbacks dominate the award | Passing production drives voting |
| 12-14 wins is the sweet spot | Team success matters almost as much as statistics |
| Top-five scoring offense | Elite offenses generate MVP candidates |
| 40+ touchdowns often separates finalists | Big counting stats remain important |
| Narrative influences voting | Breakout seasons and redemption stories gain momentum |
The Biggest Factors When Betting on the NFL MVP
You can talk about the players all day, but as with any sports betting market, the NFL MVP winner boils down to a set amount of criteria. Be sure to consider all of the following before finalizing your 2026 NFL MVP picks.
Team Wins
Nobody is going to win league MVP on a bad team. The voters simply don’t value fraudulent stats, or big numbers that don’t have a clear hand in winning pro football games. The stats need to be accompanied by actual team success.
Offensive Weapons
Nobody wins an MVP award all by themselves. Since a quarterback is the likely position to win, bettors should prioritize passers who are blessed with an elite supporting cast. Look at their offensive line, running game, and of course, their receiving options.
Schedule
Quarterbacks facing weaker secondaries and favorable late-season schedules often build momentum during the stretch run. The kicker? Their division. A cakewalk division can set a QB up for a big year, while triumphing in a brutal division may earn them bonus points.
Durability
Availability remains critical. Missing multiple games almost always removes a player from serious MVP consideration. Sometimes it’s not the most talented, but the ones who last the longest.
Narrative
Every MVP race develops a storyline. Whether it’s a breakout season, comeback campaign, first-year coach, or franchise turnaround, voters naturally gravitate toward compelling stories. Don’t let a good narrative blind you from reality, but don’t completely ignore those feel-good stories, either.
2026 NFL MVP Prediction
The NFL MVP market rewards patience and forward thinking. Instead of simply betting on the biggest names, look for quarterbacks who can combine elite statistics with double-digit wins and a compelling season-long narrative. Put simply, you want dynamic or explosive passers who are in great offenses and have a clear path to the playoffs.
Sticking with the likes of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson is fine. Aiming high with values like Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, or Jordan Love makes sense, too. Heck, a sprinkling of a deep sleeper like Kyler Murray isn’t even crazy.
But I’m going somewhere in the middle of all that and banking on Joe Burrow staying healthy for a full year. And on top of that, I’m expecting his Bengals to finally not hang him out to dry. There might be better pure value, but a healthy Burrow is borderline unstoppable and should be priced closer to Allen. The risk is baked into his NFL MVP odds, and it’s very possible we never get a better price than this.
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Our 2026 NFL MVP Call
Joe Burrow at +850 is the play. A healthy Burrow behind an upgraded Bengals roster is a top-tier MVP profile priced at a discount to Josh Allen. It also pays to shop for the best number across books before you lock in a futures ticket.
The NFL MVP race is a long and winding one, though. The eventual winner can see their stock go up or down on a weekly basis, and in turn, so can their odds. Betting on the NFL MVP winner is encouraged, but it’s not totally necessary. Just make sure you’re betting early enough that your pick is more predictive than reactive.
Play Safe: Gambling should be fun, not stressful. Set limits, stick to your budget, and never chase losses. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET or visit ncpgambling.org. For more resources, see our Responsible Gambling page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Still weighing your 2026 NFL MVP futures? Here are quick answers to the questions bettors ask most before locking in a ticket.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Josh Allen enters the season as the betting favorite thanks to his elite dual-threat ability, consistent production, and Buffalo’s expectations of competing for the AFC’s top seed.
When is the NFL MVP awarded?
The NFL MVP Award is announced after the conclusion of the regular season and postseason during the NFL Honors ceremony.
Can a non-quarterback win NFL MVP?
Yes, but it has become extremely rare. Quarterbacks have overwhelmingly dominated MVP voting over the past decade because of their impact on winning and statistical production.
What statistics usually win NFL MVP?
Most winners produce around 4,500 passing yards, 40 or more total touchdowns, and lead one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses while guiding their team to at least 12 wins.
Is it better to bet on the NFL MVP before the season?
Early betting often provides the best value because odds shorten dramatically once a player emerges as a legitimate contender. The downside is assuming more uncertainty regarding injuries and team performance.
Which NFL MVP future has the best value?
The case is strong for several, but Cincinnati Bengals passer Joe Burrow stands out as the best overall bet. Arguably superior values such as Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence are also appealing options.
