Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao Prediction (March 7th, 2026)
UFC 326 belongs to the main event between Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira, but there are some other fights on this card that can make bettors some money.
One such bout is a fun clash between Cody Garbrandt and Long Xiao. The reality is we know what we’re getting with “No Love” at this point. He is going to stand and trade, and he’s going to be aggressive. The only question is which of these dudes will get knocked out.
There’s advantageous pricing for this fight despite that likelihood, and it’s one I’d jump on immediately. DraftKings has Xiao priced as just a -155 favorite, while this one is oddly a +105 underdog to end early.
I’ll break things down further and provide some reasoning for my top picks in this fight, before wrapping things up with a final Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 326
- When: Saturday, March 7th
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas United States
- Schedule: Prelims – 7:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC 326 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Cody Garbrandt | +130 |
Long Xiao | -155 |
Fight to Go the Distance | Yes (-150) | No (+105) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+175) | Submission (+550) | Decision (-150) | Draw (+5000) |
What the Odds Tell Us
Gabrandt is a reckless and aging fighter, which plays into him being priced as the loser in this fight. Surprisingly, however, this fight is favored to go the distance. The fight is also favored to end via Decision.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Cody Garbrandt
The man known as “No Love” is a ton of fun to watch. Garbrandt remains a vicious striker with explosive upside, as evidenced by a knockout of Brian Kelleher in his last win in 2023.
Of course, he’s only fought twice since then, and they’ve both resulted in losses – one via submission to Deiveson Figueiredo and the other via Decision to Raoni Barcelos.
Garbrandt is not a good bet to get a submission or be submitted, however, as he applies pressure quickly, unloads damage, and tries to coax his opponent into a trade-off on the feet.
When that strategy goes as planned, Garbrandt has roughly a 50% chance of winning. It worked really well early in his career, but at age 34, he’s naturally starting to slow down a bit. He hasn’t been rocked since Kai Kara-France finished him off five years ago, but his reckless style and age make him a risky fighter to trust.
Gabrandt carries a middling 14-7 record into UFC 326. He’s been knocked out four times, and just five of his fights have gone the distance in his career. He is 100% in play to score a knockout, but that result may be harder to come by than usual, given his opponent.
Long Xiao
Xiao has a better overall record at 27-10, and he’s the far more versatile fighter between the two. He has never been submitted, but he’s been KO’d three times, and he’s lost seven fights on points.
Xiao is a maestro on the floor (9 submissions) and has five KOs to his name. He’s made a living outlasting the opposition, of course, as he comes into this fight with 13 Decision wins on his resume.
We did see his power when he took out Quang Le at UFC Fight Night 248, and there’s a very real possibility he unleashed that in a tense battle with Garbrandt. Normally, I’d look at his profile and assume he is going to grind out a win or go for a submission, but the matchup makes those paths to victory a lot less likely than they’d typically be.
The other thing is, while Xiao leaves himself open to damage, he’s got a brick jaw these days. He’s been KO’d thrice, but none of those knockouts have come since 2017. He has clearly morphed in a stronger fighter capable of absorbing damage.
Tale of the Tape
| Cody Garbrandt | Long Xiao | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 14-7 | 27-10 |
Age | 34 | 27 |
Height | 5’8” | 5’8” |
Reach | 65.5” | 70” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Style | Striker | Striker |
Both of these guys are strikers at heart, but Garbrandt is based more on precision and power, while Xiao is more about volume and pacing.
Xiao has more experience overall, but “No Love” has been doing it longer at the UFC level. They’re the same height and offer similar fighting stances, but Xiao walks into this matchup with a clear reach advantage.
That could allow Xiao to shoot for takedowns a lot easier, while his volume could land, and he can stave off Garbrandt’s power a bit more due to the length edge.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s take a close look at the key matchup angles that could decide this one:
- Reach Advantage: Having a 5-inch reach edge is pretty huge when both guys want to stand and throw. That’s going to give Xiao the ability to fire away pretty cleanly. In addition, he should be able to limit damage coming his way, while that extra reach can help him score takedowns better.
- Pick Your Spots: Garbandt can unravel in a hurry if he isn’t finding success, but when he stays controlled, he can be an absolute demon. If he can withstand the early volume and avoid takedowns, he could be patient until the perfect opening presents itself.
- Stand & Trade: If Garbrandt panics or simply coaxes Xiao into a strike fest, this fight could flip on its side. It presently leans toward Xiao, but the two fighters standing and trading could make this a total toss-up.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao bets:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Method of Victory – KO (+175) | There are 15 KOs between these guys, and they’ve been knocked out a combined 7 times. Given the number of punches being unleashed here, one of these dudes is hitting the deck. | 7/10 |
Fight to Not Go the Distance (+105) | Even if I’m wrong about the KO, let’s hammer this bout to end early. Xiao brings submission ability to the table, while 16 of Cody’s 21 fights have ended early. | 9/10 |
Xiao by Knockout (+450) | If we want to get super granular, let’s tap into Garbrant’s reckless nature and poor defense and back Xiao to get the knockout. His volume, length, and pressure are bound to frustrate Cody to the point where a stand and trade is viable, or Xiao just simply wears him down. | 6/10 |
As betting lines shift before UFC 326, bettors are eyeing knockout markets and early finish props in Garbrandt vs. Xiao. Track line movement at our trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao picks could fail:
- One Punch: Garbrandt still has plenty of pop, and he can counterpunch with the best of them. Xiao will unload volume, but “No Love” could weather the storm, and it’d take just one clean punch to change this fight. Luckily, two of my Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao picks would still hit.
- Floor Game: We are covered for either fighter winning via KO, and I am leaning hard into this fight ending with Xiao winning via KO. But he also is very good on the mat, and he could put his length to work here. If he gets Garbrandt to the ground, this fight could still end early, but with a tap out instead of a knockout.
- Nothing Easy: The biggest threat to my Garbrandt vs. Xiao bets is this fight going the distance, like it is favored to. I simply don’t agree with that being the most logical outcome, but we haven’t seen a “No Love” knockout lately, and Xiao is no stranger to Decisions, win or lose.
The Bottom Line: Garbrandt Gets No Love, Gets KO’d by Xiao
No matter which side you like in this fight, I love the value associated with an early finish. Both guys have the striking ability to get the job done with their fists (albeit in different ways), while Xiao has the floor game to force a tap out.
Xiao’s gone the distance in a lot of matches, but I believe his volume and length are going to be problems for Garbrandt. Instead of sitting back and allowing Xiao to chip away and win via points, look for Cody to unleash and set forth a tidal wave of punches.
His weak defense, lack of durability, and reckless style should lead to my main Cody Garbrant vs. Long Xiao prediction, which is a “No Love” knockout loss.
Still, you’re getting really nice value with a KO from anyone, and for this one to end early, regardless of what the method of victory winds up being. Want to play it safe? Just hammer Xiao as the winner at -158. However, there are four fantastic bets we can take advantage of, splitting things up and mildly hedging as we go.
Final Prediction Summary
- Method of Victory – Knockout +175 | Confidence: 7/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No +105 | Confidence: 9/10
- Xiao Method of Victory – Knockout +450 | Confidence: 6/10
- Fight Winner – Long Xiao -155 | Confidence: 7/10
