Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction (February 4th, 2026)
It’s always tough to come down from the high of the Australian Open, but if you like to bet on tennis, there are more matchups to work with at the 2026 Open Occitanie.
A lot of the top-shelf talent takes a break after a grand slam event, but that shouldn’t stop us from tapping into elite betting value. That brings me to a tight showdown between Hamad Medjedovic and Stan Wawrinka. Hamad Medjedovic enters as a light -169 favorite at DraftKings, but this match promises solid value no matter which side you bet on.
The 40-year-old Wawrinka is nearing the end of the line. Literally, as he said, this year will be his last on the ATP Tour. Still, he’s good enough to get past someone like Hamad Medjedovic in the early stages of a tournament. See where this becomes difficult? We need to assess whether Wawrinka still has it in him or if Hamad Medjedovic is an obvious smash.
If you’re looking for a Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka prediction, bear with me as I analyze this matchup and look at the latest odds to produce the best possible picks.
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, February 4, 2026, approximately 9:40 AM EST
- Venue: Court Patrice Dominguez, Montpellier, France
- Tournament: Open Occitanie
- Round: Round of 32 (First Round)
- Surface: Indoor Hard Court
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka odds over at DraftKings:
- Hamad Medjedovic: -169
- Stan Wawrinka: +138
- Medjedovic Games Won: Over 12.5 (-165) | Under 12.5 (+120)
- Wawrinka Games Won: Over 12.5 (-120) | Under 12.5 (-115)
What the Odds Tell Us
Hamad Medjedovic is fully expected to win this match, but with his odds at -169, it looks to be a close call. He’s favored to win fewer than 14 games, which suggests he could just dominate in straight sets.
Wawrinka may be 40, but the tight pricing is also an indication of a lack of confidence in the 22-year-old Medjedovic.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Hamad Medjedovic
The 22-year-old Serbian has risen up the ranks over the past couple of years, even though he’s still chasing his first-ever singles title. He’s had next to no success in grand slam events, but the 2026 Open Occitanie could be the exact type of tourney he makes a run in.
He certainly has made progress lately, as he reached the third round of the Italian Open in 2024, while also landing in the final at the Belgrade Open. Last year saw him earn his first-ever win against a top-10 opponent, too.
Hamad Medjedovic has a strong serve with an aggressive baseline mindset, while he offers explosive power with excellent forehand and backhand play. His main issues to this point are a lack of experience, inconsistency, lateral movement, and his return game.
Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka is the antithesis of Hamad Medjedovic, as he is almost double his age. Now 40 years old, the three-time Grand Slam winner has a storied career and impressive resume, but one that is winding down in a hurry.
He already made it known that the 2026 season will be his last, but he’s still played pretty well recently. Wawrinka reached the quarter-finals at last year’s 2024 Stockholm Open, becoming the oldest to ever do so. He’d keep going to the semifinals, where he became the third-oldest ATP player to make that happen.
Wawrinka can keep adding to the record books, even though his best days are clearly behind him. Still, he is known for his one-handed backhand and a fast serve – both of which have dipped in recent years – but can still be deployed as weapons.
His movement isn’t the greatest at age 40, but Wawrinka still offers elite shotmaking, a strong serve, and will always have the edge in experience and mental capacity against most of his younger opponents.
Head-to-Head Record
| Hamad Medjedovic | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 0 | 0 |
Losses | 0 | 0 |
Total Wins | 38 | 585 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 3 |
This is the first-ever meeting between these two tennis players, and it’s a classic battle between old and young. Wawrinka is insanely more experienced, as he has over 500 more wins than his opponent and has won at the highest level in professional tennis.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s investigate the key Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka matchup factors to decide who will win and how you need to bet:
- Rally Length: Neither of these guys are necessarily equipped for long rallies. Medjedovic isn’t the greatest athlete and Wawrinka doesn’t have the stamina he used to. Rallies in general may favor Wawrinka initially, but if they go longer they’d favor the younger player in this matchup.
- Unforced Errors: Medjedovic has an edge in power and stamina. He needs to make sure his serve is strong, and a big part of that is avoiding double faults and then not making key mistakes when the serve is first returned. If he can limit the mental errors, he’ll have an edge.
- Physicality: Ball placement will be huge here. Medjedovic can crush on the baseline, but he’d be well advised to move around the court in an effort to tire Wawrinka out. On the flip side, his lack of high-level athleticism could be exploited if he isn’t careful.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka picks:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Wawrinka ML (+138) | We could be getting killer value here. Wawrinka is 40, but he isn’t dead. He still has a solid game if he can keep the ball in front of him and avoid long sets. He has massive experience and a mental edge, and I expect him to deploy it to his advantage. | 6/10 |
Medjedovic Under 12.5 Games Won (+120) | This one both aligns with my first pick and operates as a hedge. Either Medjedovic comes out and dominates in straight sets and hits the Under, or he fails to get the job done in a Wawrinka win. | 6/10 |
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong in tennis betting. Here’s how my Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka bets could miss the mark:
- Youth Movement: Obviously, the biggest issue is that Wawrinka is old and almost done with tennis. Athleticism, recovery, stamina, and motivation are all factors that could be working against him.
- Not Aligned: My two Medjedovic vs. Wawrinka picks align in theory, but where they don’t work together is if Wawrinka loses, but this gets to a third set. For that reason, I think Medjedovic winning 2:1 (+245) is a solid leverage play.
The Bottom Line: Wawrinka Leans on Experience to Edge Out Medjedovic
Anytime you have a battle between a young tennis player and an old one, you need to consider two things: how big is the mental edge, and how good of an athlete is the younger player?
In this case, Wawrinka runs circles around Medjedovic when it comes to experience and mental ability. He knows every angle, and he’ll know exactly what he needs to do to win this match. And while Medjedovic is on the rise, he hasn’t shown enough yet to get anyone scared, and he does not have the elite athleticism that would cause serious concern for an older player.
Naturally, my main Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stan Wawrinka prediction is that the elder tennis star prevails with a rare win as he embarks further on his retirement tour. I think the fact that this match is on a hard court also tends to benefit him.
Medjedovic does have a solid serve and some serious power in his shots, but I think Wawrinka can handle that. Provided he can avoid long rallies and take this in straight sets, he feels like a really nice value bet at +138.
You can double down with Medjedovic to win under 12.5 games, which feels a little sneaky since it is technically a hedge, but would also be a winner if my first bet is correct. The best part is both Medjedovic vs. Wawrinka picks look good, and yet they’re both at plus money.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Stan Wawrinka (+138) | Confidence: 6/10
- Medjedovic Games Won – Under 12.5 (+120) | Confidence 6/10
