2026 NFL Draft Odds: 1st Overall Pick Favorite, Best Bets, and Predictions

With the NFL season winding down, all eyes will be on the 2026 NFL Draft soon enough. The top of the NFL Draft usually generates the most chatter, and right now, the Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock with Indiana Hoosiers star quarterback Fernando Mendoza looking like the obvious choice.

Mendoza comes in with staggering odds to be the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft, but there are some questions as to whether he’s worth that price or if there are some viable pivots the Raiders should consider.

There isn’t much money to be made by betting on Mendoza to be the top pick in the draft, either, as DraftKings has his price set at a mind-boggling -8000. So, what are bettors to do? Should they find a way to bet on Mendoza, target a different pick, or avoid the wager entirely?

Let’s go over the latest NFL Draft odds for the #1 pick and highlight the top bets while coming to a final prediction.

Latest 2026 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds

These are the current odds for the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft at DraftKings. Odds are subject to change based on player health, team transactions, and other variables, but the one thing that seems written in pen is Mendoza as the top favorite.

Mendoza’s #1 pick odds are obscene. However, he won the Heisman Trophy and led the Indiana Hoosiers to the college football title game, so he stands out as the clear pick. In addition, the Las Vegas Raiders own the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and per usual, they are in need of an upgrade under center.

It’s likely that we can stop the conversation here. On one hand, you’re not betting anything on Mendoza at this absurd -8000 price tag. On the other hand, nothing is for sure until the pick is in.

By default, every other option stands out as a pretty alluring value. If the Raiders aren’t high on Mendoza, find a quarterback via a different path, or trade out of the top spot, it’s not crazy to imagine someone else being picked first this year.

To assess the best bets to be drafted first overall, let’s break this market down a bit further.

Why Is Fernando Mendoza the Favorite to Go #1 Overall?

The first step is accepting our fate here. With -8000 odds to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, it’d take some special circumstances to derail this train. Fernando Mendoza is almost definitely hearing his name called before anyone else on draft night.

Why? I also illustrated that he won the Heisman and led his team to the CFB championship game, but apart from that, he fills a clear need for a struggling Raiders franchise and is a rock-solid prospect.

That’s a lot of check marks, but ones you’d expect to get out of someone favored to go first overall in the NFL Draft. This would give Las Vegas the most well-rounded quarterback they’ve had in decades, as Mendoza lacks flash and high-level athletic traits, but otherwise passes the eye test for every other major attribute that goes into stellar quarterback play.

With Tom Brady being part of the Las Vegas ownership group that is making this tough call, it seems even more likely that a leader and winner like Mendoza would be precisely what a dormant offense needs to take their game to the next level.

Why Mendoza May Not Be the Right Pick

There’s the other side to this conversation, of course, and why we’re talking about a betting market that seemingly is already decided.

Mendoza fills a need and is a quality prospect, but he does not dazzle like someone going first overall “should”. If the Raiders want a winner and strong leader, he’s a no-brainer. But if they want someone who can wreck games, sell tickets, and be a total mismatch for defenses, they may pause before making the call.

Here’s why Fernando Mendoza going first in the 2026 NFL Draft wouldn’t be a given:

• Less than elite athletic traits
• Other viable candidates
• Raiders are far from contending
• One-year wonder?

Mendoza does all of the little things right, but he is an uninspiring prospect when it comes to arm strength and mobility. He’s “fine” in both regards – and everyone knows big arms and flashy runners don’t always translate – but he lacks game-changing ability beyond his edge between the ears.

In addition, if the Raiders aren’t in love with Mendoza, it isn’t out of the question that they could be high on another passer or a different position altogether.

Las Vegas is also at the bottom of the league for a reason. They don’t have a long-term head coach in place, and they lack talent on both sides of the ball. They could be drafting a quarterback into a situation that is impossible to succeed in.

Lastly, Mendoza really only has played at this level for one season. His numbers at Indiana are amazing and he clearly knows how to win, but he was relatively average at California before transferring to play with the Hoosiers.

What if the Raiders are investing in a middling prospect with a grossly inflated draft profile? Needless to say, these red flags could individually be problematic, or the combination of them all could spell disaster.

What do the Las Vegas Raiders Need Most?

Before deciding whether or not Fernando Mendoza will go first overall, you should consider what the Raiders are lacking. There’s no denying they don’t have a long-term solution at the quarterback position, but could there be another position they prefer targeting at #1 overall?

Las Vegas is a team that won just three games last year, so they definitely have more holes than just quarterback. Based off of their 2025 campaign and who they stand to lose this off-season, here’s a look at the biggest needs:

• Quarterback
• Offensive line
• Pass rush

Quarterback is the biggest need for the Raiders. Typically, that’s the case anytime you win three games and “earn” the top pick in the draft. Geno Smith is still under contract, but he’s someone the Raiders should look to move on from.

The question here isn’t need, but fit and timing. Is Mendoza the guy the Raiders fully believe in, or are they just drafting him due to need and the fact that they own the 1st overall pick?

The other issue is that this team isn’t just a quarterback away from competing. They ranked dead last in pass protection last year, so the offensive line needs an overhaul.

You need to beef up the trenches on both sides of the ball to win, and star pass rusher Maxx Crosby is a candidate to try to find a way out of town. If that is the case – and perhaps even if he stays – the Raiders eventually need to address a suspect pass rush that had just a 6.6% sack rate (19th).

Top Contenders to Go 1st in the 2026 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks: Fernando Mendoza & Trinidad Chambliss
• Edge: Arvell Reese & David Bailey
• O-line: Francis Mauigoa

If Las Vegas stays at #1, these are the most likely options they will be picking from. Mendoza is the consensus top pick, and that argument is made less intense with Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore opting to return to school for next year.

Mendoza has the leg up in terms of odds, but also mental makeup, pure passing ability, and stability. Chambliss did dominate in his first season as the Ole Miss Rebels starting quarterback, putting up 30 total touchdowns while leading one of the nation’s best offenses deep into the College Football Playoff tournament.

Chambliss is a little more exciting in terms of rushing ability and upside. He doesn’t have the steady hand that Mendoza does, but if the Raiders opt for ceiling, they could shock the world and pivot to the Ole Miss product.

A likelier scenario – if the Raiders actually passed on Mendoza – is they choose to rebuild their offensive line. That’d get them ready for when they truly felt prepared to invest heavily into a franchise passer, and right now, the most logical option is stud Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa.

The third option is Las Vegas re-tooling their pass rush. Maybe they hang onto Crosby, but either way, this draft has several edge rushers that could team up with him or simply replace him. The likes of Arvell Reese and David Bailey grade out as the best bets if Las Vegas went this route.

Ultimately, the two most likely contenders not named Mendoza appear to be Chambliss and Mauigoa, but with +3000 and +15000 odds, respectively, they are longshot bets at best.

Could the Raiders Trade Down from the #1 Pick?

This is the most likely scenario that would lead to the Raiders not selecting Fernando Mendoza first overall. Las Vegas would be making a mistake to simply select a different player when considering value, so they probably need to just take Mendoza or trade the pick.

The following teams are legit trade candidates:

• New York Jets
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cleveland Browns
• Miami Dolphins
• Pittsburgh Steelers

When you don’t have a signal caller, you do what has to be done to get one. In this case, we’re considering the hypothetical situation where Las Vegas isn’t smitten by Mendoza and dangles him in trade talks.

Las Vegas has a lot of holes, but they could consider a big package that would set them up for success down the road. Additionally, tanking for Arch Manning or another prospect next year or the year after isn’t out of the question.

New York is probably the most compelling team here, as they lack a foundational piece under center and have two first-round picks to work with this year.

Arizona, Cleveland, Miami, and Pittsburgh are all quarterback-needy teams that have first-round picks they can offer in potential trade packages if Las Vegas is serious about trading down.

Best Bets for the #1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft

• Fernando Mendoza -8000
• Trinidad Chambliss +3000
• Francis Mauigoa +15000

If you’re betting on who will go first in the 2026 NFL Draft, every part of this conversation has to start with Mendoza. He’s unlikely to be passed over by anyone else, and I doubt the Raiders end up moving this pick.

That said, if Mendoza is not going to be the pick, the two options that make the most sense are either a pivot to a more dynamic passer in Chambliss, or o-line help via Mauigoa.

If I had to bet against Mendoza, picking the Raiders to shock everyone with Chambliss would be the way to go.

Ultimately, though, your best 2026 NFL Draft picks are probably coming elsewhere via different props.

Final 2026 NFL Draft Prediction for the #1 Pick

Fernando Mendoza does not have a huge arm or freakish athletic traits, but he’s without a doubt the most complete quarterback in this draft class.

The Hoosiers’ star checks every single box you look for in a signal caller, profiling like a Tom Brady or Joe Burrow-esque prospect. That can be scary for a team picking at 1st overall, as this is a huge investment for a player who lacks flash. There will be understandable questions as to whether or not this type of player will successfully transition to the NFL, or if their skill-set can actually elevate a weak roster.

The answer to that might be no – at least at first – but drafting Mendoza is still the right call. He is a cerebral player who makes the right decisions, leads his team by example, and executes at a high level. Las Vegas hasn’t had anyone that can do that consistently for their passing game in years, so this is a risk they simply need to take.

That should result in a quality pick for them, but it doesn’t equate to elite betting value for you. You can’t hop on Mendoza at -8000, and even adding him to an NFL Draft parlay won’t make much sense.

If nothing else, however, this should cut off any risky interest in betting on the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and you can start focusing your efforts on who will go 2nd overall this year, among other NFL Draft prop bets.