Illinois vs. Ohio State Basketball Prediction (December 9, 2025)
The Illinois Fighting Illini get their first taste of 2025 Big 10 action on Tuesday night, where they will be 4.5-point favorites to take down the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Illinois is a solid 7-2 to start the year, as they have looked very sharp on offense as a whole. They’ll be tested in this one, as they’ll be on the road in a hostile environment against a good Ohio State squad that is 7-1 so far.
Big 10 games are always tough to gauge, but this is a huge early-season battle, with it being Illinois’ first game inside conference play. I’ll inspect the latest odds and key matchups as I work my way to my favorite bets and Illinois vs. Ohio State prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Illinois Fighting Illini (7-2) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 9th, at 6:30 pm (7:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Jerome Schottenstein Center in Columbus, OH
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on Peacock
Early Season Performance & Trends
Illinois Fighting Illini
You know the Illini are good since they have two losses already and are still ranked 13th in the college basketball Top 25. The losses aren’t anything to worry about, though, as they fell to a good UConn program. Their other loss was by four in a wild 90-86 shootout with a good Alabama team.
Overall, Illinois looks good. They bounced back from the loss to the Huskies by dismantling the Tennessee Volunteers (75-62) last time out, and they’ve flashed crazy upside with 80+ points in seven of their games. They’re 6-1 in such contests.
The Fighting Illini have yet to be tested in a true road game, however. Both of their losses came on neutral courts, so Tuesday’s showdown with Ohio State represents both their Big 10 season opener and their first true road game of 2025.
They enter this game ranked inside the top-20 in scoring, but have not been quite as impressive on the defensive end of the floor.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are off to a terrific 7-1 start, and they knocked off Northwestern in a crazy 86-82 thriller to begin their Big 10 journey at 1-0. That saw them bounce back from a tough 67-66 loss to Pittsburgh, which presently grades out as a bad loss.
That plays into Ohio State not currently being ranked inside the Top 25 for college basketball, but they still have a strong overall record and have exhibited top-shelf offensive ability in almost every other game.
On the year, the Buckeyes are not far behind Illinois in scoring (27th), while they have similar defensive limitations. Due to the home court edge against a team they know well, they stand out as an interesting value bet.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
This is an extremely storied rivalry, with these two sides facing off on the hardwood 195 times throughout history. The Fighting Illini hold a 113-82 advantage in the series and won the most recent meeting (87-79) back in February.
Illinois is currently on a three-game winning streak in the series, while they are 6-4 against the Buckeyes over the last 10 matchups.
Ohio State has held the upper hand at home, going 50-44 in 94 meetings on their home court. They’ve been great at home this year so far, too, going 6-0 outside of Big 10 play.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Fighting Illini rebound the ball extremely well, dominate inside, and put up plenty of volume from long range. That inside/outside game allows them to put up 88 points per game, with forward David Mirkovic (13.7 ppg, 9.5 rpg) doing as he pleases inside.
Mirkovic delivered one of his best games against Colgate, where he abused them inside for 27 points and 21 rebounds. He’s just one piece to the puzzle, of course, as Kylan Boswell (17 ppg) and Andre Stojakovic (14.8 ppg) also chip in with strong scoring, while Tomislav Ivisic and Keaton Wagler offer timely outside shooting (both connecting on over 34% of threes).
Big man Zvonimir Ivisic only plays 18 minutes per game, but chips in over seven points and five rebounds per game, while also being a menace inside with 2.5 blocks per contest.
It’s a balanced offensive attack that will crush you inside, but has the ability to also burn you from deep.
The Buckeyes are led by star guard Bruce Thornton, who puts up 20.1 points per game and even leads the team with 4.3 assists per contest. He’s been extremely consistent all year, scoring in double figures in every single game so far, but also displaying his ceiling with 38 points two games ago.
Ohio State is more than just one guy on offense, as this team has the 7th-best effective FG% in all of college basketball. This is far from a one-man show, as the Buckeyes share the ball with the best of them (41st most assists per game) and generate over 88 points per contest.
In addition to Thornton’s reliable scoring, three other Buckeyes put up over 13 points per game, with the team as a whole making defenses pay from long range (36.9%) when left open.
This team is about efficiency, working the ball inside, and finishing, however. Ohio State connects on the 35th most free throws per game, while nobody is better at shooting inside.
Neither of these teams play particularly fast. The Buckeyes are the faster-paced between the two (149th), while Illinois is far slower (200th).
Both Illinois and Ohio State are decent defensively, given their offensive production, but both are giving up 69 points per game.
Illinois struggles to defend the three, but they are making life difficult on teams inside (25th lowest two-point percentage allowed. The Buckeyes are especially nasty on the glass (30th), while they are also extremely stingy out on the perimeter (11th).
- Illinois’ perimeter offense vs. Ohio State’s defense: The Fighting Illini like to get up 29 threes per game, and rely on that volume to generate production. They may run into a snag against the Buckeyes, who defend the outside as well as anyone (11th).
- Ohio State’s interior scoring vs. Illinois’ interior defense: This will be a very interesting matchup, as the Buckeyes are #1 in two-point shooting and are one of the most efficient offenses in college ball. However, the Illinois defense is also 39th in shooting efficiency, allowing the 26th-lowest two-point shooting percentage.
- Free Throw Battle: The team that can get to the line more may end up winning this game. Both of these teams convert freebies at a 77% clip, but it’s the Buckeyes who rank 35th in free throw makes per game because they’re better at getting to the charity stripe.
Ohio State has been great at home and already has tasted victory inside the Big 10. The visiting Fighting Illini will be playing their first Big 10 game of the year and their first true road game of the season.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Illinois vs. Ohio State betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Illinois | -4.5 (-102) | -192 | Over 157.5 (-115) |
Ohio State | +4.5 (-120) | +158 | Under 157.5 (-105) |
The Fighting Illini come in as almost four-point road favorites, which tells you how the oddsmakers view these two teams. That’s a surprising spread and moneyline considering they are on the road, but they are viewed as the superior team.
The game total is pretty modest, but for college basketball, it’s toward the higher end. That plays into two very gifted offenses. Both teams have respectable defenses so far, but they’re both giving up almost 70 points per game and scoring 88, each.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The obvious betting value lies with the Buckeyes. It’s arguable that Illinois is the better team, but they’ve also lost two games already and have to play a rival on the road.
The game total seems targetable based on the offensive production to this point, too. These teams are averaging a combined 176 points per game.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 157.5 (-105) | I respect the offenses from both sides, but the Illinois defense in particular has flashed real potential. Neither of these teams plays all that fast, and the Ohio State perimeter defense could be problematic for Illinois on the outside. | 7/10 |
Ohio State ATS +4.5 (-120) | The Buckeyes have looked good, and they are at home, where they are tough to beat. They have a legit star scorer in Thornton, and their perimeter defense could pose a real problem for an Illinois team that likes to hoist a good amount of treys. Ultimately, getting 3.5 points feels good. | 6/10 |
Shifting odds reflect bettors reacting to Illinois vs. Ohio State’s offensive firepower and road-court concerns—track every updated betting line at the top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Illinois 73, Ohio State 70
I think we’re in for a barn burner. These defenses are a bit suspect, this is a rivalry game, it’s a tone setter for both sides, and both offenses can ball.
Bruce Thornton is having himself a season. He is shooting an insane 52% from long range and doing a little bit of everything for Ohio State. He doesn’t get a ton of high-level help from the guys around him, but Ohio State collectively can still hit their threes, and they know how to get to the line.
Illinois is going to show up when looking at grit, interior play, and outside volume. Ohio State has the edge in perimeter defense, star power, and home-court advantage. I think that’s enough to get me to pull the trigger on the Buckeyes to beat this spread.
I do fear the Fighting Illini defense, as they stifled Tennessee in their last win. They are also a deeper and more balanced team. Thornton and playing at home allow Ohio State to make Illinois sweat and beat the spread, though.
