North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction & Best Bets (December 5th, 2025)
The 2025 AAC title is on the line on Friday night, where the North Texas Mean Green will be mild -130 favorites to take down the Tulane Green Wave in New Orleans.
The AAC championship game will decide this year’s conference winner and could also punch someone’s ticket to the College Football Playoff. Either way, this game is for all the marbles and looks incredibly tough to call.
Something has to break, however, as both teams were dominant within the American Athletic Conference, while North Texas has been perfect on the road, and Tulane has yet to lose in front of their home crowd.
An extremely high game total promises plenty of scoring, while a tight 2.5-point spread suggests a possible barn burner. All of that makes this a very enticing game to wager on, but you’ll still want to know which bets are worth targeting.
Need some help? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll check out the latest odds and key matchups, while highlighting my best bets and ultimate North Texas vs. Tulane prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: North Texas Mean Green (11-1) vs. Tulane Green Wave (10-2)
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5th, with kickoff at 7:00 pm CT (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, LA
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ABC.
Team Record
- North Texas is 11-1, 7-1 in the AAC.
- Tulane is 10-2, 7-1 in the AAC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest North Texas vs. Tulane odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
North Texas | -2.5 (-112) | -130 | Over 66.5 (-115) |
Tulane | +2.5 (-108) | +110 | Under 66.5 (-105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
We have not seen North Texas and Tulane face each other many times. There are just three meetings between these two sides, with Tulane pulling out the win every single time.
While the Green Wave has the 3-0 edge in the series, they are not favored going into Friday. On top of that, all three of their previous games against North Texas went down to the wire and involved a good amount of scoring.
The most recent game was a wild 45-37 shootout, while all three games were within seven points.
Tulane gets to play in front of their home crowd, where they are 6-0 on the season and 2-0 in this series.
Why This Game Matters
The winner of this game wins the 2025 AAC conference title. That alone is a big deal, but the winner could boost their ranking inside the Top-25 and give themselves a chance of being named to this year’s College Football Playoff.
Team Profiles
North Texas Mean Green
North Texas has enjoyed an amazing year, as the Mean Green marched their way to the program’s first-ever 11-win season. Their season was so good that it earned head coach Eric Morris a job upgrade, although North Texas can keep adding to the win column if they can get past their AAC rivals.
Tulane has been a thorn in their side recently, but this could be the year the Mean Green are ready to take things to the next level. They’ve already been doing that, as they have put an absurdly good offense on the field, dropping 50+ points in an astonishing seven different games.
North Texas looks like the real deal, as even a convincing 31-17 win over Navy can attest to. Here’s a look at some key areas they’ve been especially good in over the course of the season:
- Ground Control: Running back Caleb Hawkins has been sensational this year, churning out 1,216 yards and an insane 23 rushing scores at a nasty 6.3 yards per carry clip. Naturally, he powers the nation’s 26th-best rushing offense.
- Air Raid: As great as the ground game has been, the passing game for North Texas has been about as good. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has maintained elite balance by putting up over 3,800 yards and 29 scores through the air, spearheading the second-best passing attack in the country.
- You Give, We Take: As amazing as the North Texas offense has been, the defense tends to chip in. This is not a team with elite pressure up front or top shelf scoring prevention, but it sure is an opportunistic group with 2.1 turnovers forced per contest – 7th most in the college ranks.
Tulane Green Wave
It’s tough to compare Tulane’s season to North Texas’s, so it’s best to just avoid that and appreciate the Green Wave for who they are on their own. This is still a really good team with just two losses on their ledger, with one coming in a shootout against UTSA and the other coming against a very good Ole Miss program.
Outside of those two blemishes, Tulane regularly put up 30 points and did a solid job defensively, with a recent shutout of Charlotte showcasing what they’re capable of at that end of the field.
Tulane didn’t blow you away with eye-popping numbers, but a balanced offense and a steady defense give them a shot against most teams. Here’s a look at where they specifically stood out this year:
- Down the Field: Tulane has a rock-solid passing game anchored by dual-threat passer Jake Retzlaff, but they truly excel at busting big plays through the air (28th in yards per pass). Shazz Preston (16.2 yards per catch) has been a big reason for that production.
- Max Protect: Tulane doesn’t throw at an alarming rate, but their passing game is still a huge part of what they do. Their pass protection allows it to play out, too, as their offensive line has been fantastic, registering a low 2.66% sack rate (5th).
- Stiff Front: The Green Wave have a decent defense, but they are especially nasty up front against the run. They’re allowing just 3.5 yards per carry (23rd) and 120 yards per game (29th) on the season.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key North Texas vs. Tulane matchups:
- North Texas rush offense vs. Tulane’s run defense: The Mean Green are very good on the ground despite having a balanced offense. However, Tulane’s run defense is quite stingy and could try to force North Texas to beat them through the air.
- North Texas passing offense vs. Tulane’s pass defense: The Mean Green can certainly exploit this matchup, as their passing attack is literally the 2nd best in the nation. Tulane does some things well on defense, but defending the pass (113th) really isn’t one of them.
- Tulane’s downfield passing vs. North Texas’ secondary: One of Tulane’s biggest assets on offense is using their speed down the field. Unfortunately, North Texas gives up just 6.3 yards per pass (22nd) and ranks 12th against the pass overall.
Betting Insights & Trends
Something has to break with the home/away splits. North Texas has yet to lose on the road in 2025, while Tulane is perfect at home.
North Texas has been amazing (10-2) against the spread this year. They are 6-1 ATS when favored and 4-1 ATS on the road. They’re also 7-1 ATS within the AAC.
Tulane hasn’t been nearly as reliable (5-6-1) against the spread, while they are just 1-1 ATS as the underdog and 2-3-1 ATS at home.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top North Texas vs. Tulane picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
North Texas ML (-130) | North Texas is the best team in the AAC. Tulane is good, but they simply cannot keep up with this Mean Green offense. North Texas is also perfect on the road, and on top of that elite offense, they win too many matchups on defense in this one. | 8/10 |
Over 66.5 (-115) | North Texas routinely puts up 50+ points. Tulane also has a capable offense that will come to play and try to keep pace. They’ll fail, but it will lead to a lot of scoring. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Caleb Hawkins 2+ Touchdowns (+110) | Caleb Hawkins has 23 rushing scores and is a -500 bet to score a TD in this game. Given his TD equity in this offense and the amount of scoring we should see, I love this plus-money bet for him to find the endzone twice. | 5/10 |
- Primary Pick: North Texas ML (-130)
- Secondary Pick: Over 66.5 (-115)
There are a lot of terrific bets in this game, but the best one is for North Texas to win. Tulane’s balance, defense, and home-field edge have cut this line down, but North Texas is simply the far better team.
If you don’t want to bet on who will win the North Texas vs. Tulane game, just hammer the Over. North Texas games have produced 67+ points eight times on the year. Given the magnitude of this game and Tulane’s solid offensive output, this should make for a ninth.
North Texas vs. Tulane odds are shifting fast as bettors weigh home-field perfection vs. elite road play — track every line change and find the best value at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Things don’t always go as planned when betting on sports. Here’s why my North Texas vs. Tulane picks could miss the mark:
- Home Field Edge: Tulane is still a competent team that thrives on steady, balanced offense, and a quality defense. They’re also at home and simply do not lose there. It’s entirely possible they stifle North Texas and grind out a win.
- Defensive Battle: In the event Tulane does slow things down and leans on their defense and ground game, this contest could be lower scoring than expected. There’s also a reality where North Texas lights up the scoreboard, but Tulane doesn’t show up.
- Asking a Lot: My third North Texas vs. Tulane bet is an admitted reach, just because asking a player to score twice isn’t nothing. Caleb Hawkins has a bunch of TDs on the year, but he’s still failed to score 2+ times in four different games.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: North Texas 45, Tulane 30
My main North Texas vs. Tulane prediction is that the Mean Green are going to get the win, and I don’t think it’ll be all that close. Credit to Tulane for a good season, while they definitely are tough to beat at home, but the Mean Green are a way more dangerous team.
I also love the Over, which can accompany that ML bet or stand alone. They do tend to work together, of course, as North Texas is probably putting up a lot of points in a win. I see this being a bit of a shootout, but one where North Texas easily covers.
Lastly, Caleb Hawkins has three or more touchdowns in each of his last four games, and he has two or more in seven games. He is the lock to end all locks to score and one of the best +110 bets (ever) for someone to score twice.
