New York Giants vs. New England Patriots Prediction & Best Bets (December 1st, 2025)
Every week, bettors and fans question if the New England Patriots are for real. Coming into week 13 at 10-2, I think we have our answer.
New England is a big 7.5-point favorite to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football, as they are riding an incredible nine-game winning streak. First place in the AFC East and the top seed in the conference remain in play, so there’s no slowing down for Drake Maye and co.
Whether or not the Pats can beat a 2-10 New York Giants team isn’t really the question; it’s if they can cover this spread. The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions both had trouble clearing seven-point wins against the G-Men, so it’s a fair debate.
With plenty to think about, I’ll inspect the latest odds and key matchups for this game, highlighting my favorite picks and my ultimate Giants vs. Patriots prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Monday, December 1st, 2025 | Kickoff at 8:15 pm ET (ABC/ESPN) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Team records entering the game:
- Giants: 2-10
- Patriots: 10-2
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Giants +7.5 (-120) | Patriots -7.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Giants (+285) | Patriots (-360)
- Total: Over 46.5 (-112) | Under 46.5 (-108)
The oddsmakers respect the Pats at home, but there’s still a tiny inkling of respect thrown New York’s way. Most 2-10 teams would be double TD dogs on the road, but Big Blue has competed at a high level despite being shorthanded.
The game total is pretty healthy due to New York’s weak defense, but a still competent offense. The books acknowledge a potential shootout could occur on MNF.
Storylines to Watch
The main Patriots vs. Giants storyline is New England’s wild 9-game run. They can extend their winning streak to 10 games and move to 11-2, inching them closer to wrapping up the AFC East division crown.
On top of that, a win over the Giants would keep the Pats in line for the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. New England has a lot left to accomplish, but also a lot to lose if they get tripped up at home by a pretty pesky Giants team.
Let’s see what other Giants vs. Patriots storylines stand out going into this MNF clash:
- MVP Campaign: Drake Maye continues to piece together a stat line worth of an NFL MVP award. He’s been posting mind-boggling stats for a second-year passer. New England going 10-2 is going to very much keep him at the forefront of the MVP race, and another big performance in week 13 would only boost his odds.
- Jaxson Dart Returns: Jameis Winston Szn has admittedly been a lot of fun, but a now healthy Jaxson Dart should make his return from a concussion. How he fares against one of the best teams in football could give us insight into his long-term ceiling.
- TreVeyon Smash: Much like The Hulk smashes, this looks like a great spot for the explosive TreVeyon Henderson to go full nuke mode. He popped off in two of his last three games, but he’s looking at a tasty matchup that has allowed elite production to RBs all season long. Look for him to shine under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.
Team Profiles
New York Giants
Credit where credit is due; the Giants have been a really competitive team all year and are one of the best 2-10 teams I’ve ever seen.
Brian Daboll got the axe, as he once again had to deal with inconsistent play under center and a laundry list of issues beyond his control. He wasn’t perfect, but the Giants have been in the majority of their games and that 34-17 win over Philly earlier in the year is still a beacon of hope.
New York is mangled and have lost six straight, but there’s a lot of meat on this bone. Here’s a quick look at what’s been going well for the Giants in yet another lost season:
- Pound the Rock: The Giants no longer have a healthy Cam Skattebo to turn to, but he was a menace for their ground game when active. Long-term, he’s going to be a force, while the Giants have been running well all year. They come in ranking 9th in rush rate and generate over 124 rushing yards per contest (9th most).
- Dart Effect: New York is not perfect on offense, but Jaxson Dart adds a rushing dynamic few teams can provide. His playing style contributes to that rushing offense, but he’s especially useful in the red zone. NYG are terrible in the RZ on the year, but he’s still a special weapon, having scored a rushing TD in six different games.
- Ball Control: This may shock you – especially for a team with Jameis Winston and a rookie QB playing so much – but the G-Men take pretty good care of the football. New York enters the MNF battle with the 10th fewest giveaways in the NFL. If they don’t shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, they can hang around.
New England Patriots
New England’s season has been a movie. Drake Maye has looked every bit the franchise passer the Patriots drafted him to be, while Mike Vrabel’s return to the team he played for has been pure cinema.
New England’s 10-2 run is even wilder when you recall they fell to the Las Vegas Raiders of all teams back in week one. Since then, they’ve been borderline unstoppable, going 10-1 and winning each of their last nine.
The Pats have recently unlocked rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, too, possibly taking an already elite team over the top.
There’s a lot of good baked into New England’s 2025 pie, but here’s what stands out the most:
- Air Raid: New England runs the ball plenty well, but they’ve been truly special through the air. Drake Maye has the Pats as the most accurate passing attack, while New England is producing 8.8 yards per pass (2nd in the NFL) and has the 6th best overall passing offense.
- Stingy Front: New England’s defense has its weak points, but they are very good up front. The Patriots are allowing just 87.7 yards on the ground per game (2nd), while they also keep opposing teams out of the endzone (just 0.3 rushing TDs allowed per contest).
- Elite Discipline: The Pats do a good job of making defenses work to stop them. They commit the 13th fewest penalties on offense and rank 10th in giveaways per game.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Giants vs. Patriots matchups:
- Giants running game vs. Patriots run defense: New York uses Jaxson Dart as an extension of their ground game, but he’ll need to be on point in this one. New England has the 2nd best run defense in all of football.
- Patriots offense vs. Giants defense: New England is very good through the air and can also establish the run. New York can’t stop offenses in either regard, so the Pats will just want to remain balanced and avoid silly mistakes.
- Giants pass rush vs. Patriots o-line: This is probably the only spot that could turn the tide. New York’s sack rate (23rd) isn’t great, but they remain talented up front and on the edge, so they could exploit a shaky New England o-line (5th most sacks allowed).
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Patriots vs. Giants odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Giants | +7.5 (-120) | +285 | Over 46.5 (-112) |
Patriots | -7.5 (+100) | -360 | Under 46.5 (-108) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is very much siding with the Pats in this one, with 95% of the bets and 90% of the money backing New England to win.
- Record History: These two sides have faced off 14 times (twice in the Super Bowl), with the series being split down the middle (7-7). New York won the most recent meeting (10-7) in 2023.
- ATS Tidbits: The Pats have been rock solid (7-4-1) against the spread, while they are 4-3-1 ATS as the favorite and 2-2-1 ATS as the home favorite. New York has gone 7-5 against the spread, 7-5 ATS as the underdog, and 4-3 ATS on the road.
Best Bets for Giants vs. Patriots
Pick 1: Patriots ATS -7.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Pats are on fire and have a ton to play for still. They’re also at home, while the Giants are severely depleted and working with an interim head coach. New England should win, and winning by more than a touchdown makes sense given how good they’ve looked on the year.
Risks/What to Watch
New York has been very good against the spread, and they continue to compete. They also get their starting quarterback back for this one, so they could come to play under the bright lights of MNF.
Pick 2: Prop Play – TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (-115) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Henderson has been quite active over the last three weeks. The role is locked in, and he’s scored five times within that recent stretch. New York presents one of the best possible matchups, as they’ve been horrible at stopping RBs all year.
Risks/What to Watch
New England could easily score a lot of their points through the air, while the return of Rhamondre Stevenson could complicate the running back room.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Jaxson Dart Over 30+ Rushing Yards (+123) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Whether the Giants keep this one close or not, Jaxson Dart is likely going to be used as a rusher. Dart has found the endzone numerous times this year, but he also takes off when things break down. He’s safely topped this rushing yardage total five times on the year already.
Risks/What to Watch
It’s always possible the Giants opt not to run their franchise passer into the ground, seeing as he’s fresh off of a head injury. New England could also work to keep him inside the pocket and see if he can beat them with his arm.
Giants vs. Patriots odds won’t sit still — follow the line swings, watch for late movement, and secure premium betting value at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Patriots Stay Hot, Roll Giants
The Giants have been pretty pesky against the spread, but eventually, things are going to break down. They are well-coached and play hard, but they simply are lacking viable bodies at this stage of the season.
The mark of a great team is to crush bad teams. New York is better than their record would indicate, but this is still a matchup where the Pats should dominate at home. On the road under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, I think the Giants finally wilt.
New England is a really good bet to win, and I think this spread is actually pretty mild for them, all things considered. New York could make them sweat early or get us a back door cover, though.
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 33, Giants 16
