Troy vs. Old Dominion Prediction & Betting Picks (November, 13th, 2025)
There is just one FBS college football game on the schedule on Thursday night, and it’s a big one, as the Troy Trojans visit the Old Dominion Monarchs as massive 11.5-point underdogs.
Old Dominion has been impressive on offense all year and presently sits third in the SBC East, with little hope of catching 8-1 James Madison. Still, a bowl game could be in their future, and if they do want to reach the Sun Belt Conference championship, they know they have to win out.
That plight starts on Thursday, as they’ll be huge -410 betting favorites in the first documented showdown with Troy.
The Trojans have also been good in 2025, as they enter with an identical 6-3 record and have done well (4-1) in the SBC West. There’s a lot on the line for them, as well, as they are just one game back behind Southern Miss for first place.
Is this a game where Old Dominion dominates at home, or is the spread too rich? I’ll go over the latest odds and key matchups before handing out my best bets and final Troy vs. Old Dominion prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Troy Trojans (6-3) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (6-3)
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 13th, with kickoff at 6:30 pm CT (7:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Foreman Field in Norfolk, VA
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Team Record
- Troy is 6-3, 4-1 in the SBC.
- Old Dominion is 6-3, 3-2 in the SBC.
Betting Odds
Check out the most current Troy vs. Old Dominion odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Troy | +10.5 (-112) | +295 | O 52.5 (-110) |
Old Dominion | -10.5 (-108) | -375 | U 52.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
A rivalry could start brewing after Thursday, but this will actually be the first documented clash between these two teams.
Old Dominion has only been a member of the Sun Belt Conference since 2021, while they’ve only been an official FBS team since 2013.
This game will be played at Old Dominion’s home stadium – Foreman Field – where the Monarchs are undefeated (4-0) so far this season.
Why This Game Matters
This is a huge game for both teams, as bowl game hopes are on the line, as is a shot at the Sun Belt title game. Both teams are technically still alive on their respective sides of the conference, too.
Old Dominion’s path to the SBC East is murky at best, so they need to win this game (and probably the rest on their schedule) to guarantee a bowl game.
Troy is just one game back from first place in the SBC West. They also need to keep winning in order to get a bowl game, but they could lose here and still have a shot at winning their side of the conference.
Team Profiles
Troy Trojans
The Trojans are massive underdogs despite looking pretty darn good overall in 2025. They got off to a 1-0 start before dropping tough losses to Clemson and nasty Memphis squad, but they got hot and won five games in a row.
During that hot streak, the Trojans scored 31+ points four times and won a wild 48-41 shootout with Texas State. The level of competition wasn’t insane, but they took care of business switch strong offensive play.
Troy did take a step back in their most recent game (23-10) against a middle-of-the-road Arkansas State team, but they’ll be well rested after a week off from football.
The Trojans don’t really impose their will offensively, but they do put up 25.6 points per game on average and have a respectable passing game. They’re also incredibly well balanced on offense with almost a 50-50 split.
Defensively, Troy is nasty up front with the nation’s 13th-best sack rate, while they are very good in the secondary, ranking 31st against the pass.
Old Dominion Monarchs
The Monarchs admittedly need this game a bit more than Troy does, plus they are at home at night on a short week. Troy’s week off might negate some of that advantage, but Old Dominion is still the understandable favorite.
That said, they are not the easiest favorite to trust, as they got positively smoked in two of their last three games. One of those losses was a 63-27 beatdown by a very good James Madison team, but a 48-24 loss to Marshall isn’t nearly as forgivable.
They did bounce back with a tight 24-21 win over Appalachian State and a convincing 31-6 win over UL Monroe, however.
On the year, the Monarchs are the better offensive team compared to Troy (29.1 points per game), as they are quite explosive (12th in yards per play) and own one of the nation’s most dominant ground games (24th in rushing yards per game).
Stud dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph does it all for this team, as he enters this huge SBC game with 28 total touchdowns to his name.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Troy’s RZ offense vs. Old Dominion’s RZ defense: Troy is a balanced offense that can be unpredictable and move the ball decently, while they have a passable red-zone offense as well. But how it fares against an elite Monarchs RZ defense (15th) could be a huge key to this game.
- Old Dominion’s passing game vs. Troy’s secondary: Troy has an elite sack rate (13th) and the nation’s 30th-best pass defense. This could be a problematic matchup for the Monarchs, who run a ton, but still take advantage of the 6th-best yards per pass play rate in the country.
- Turnover Battle: Colton Joseph is a dominant dual-threat quarterback who can definitely take over this game, but he also can be a turnover machine. That might not be ideal against a Troy defense that can be pretty opportunistic with their 1.5 takeaways per game.
Betting Insights & Trends
Troy has been rock solid (6-3) against the spread this year. They’re also undefeated against the spread (3-0) as the road underdog and 4-1 ATS in conference games.
Old Dominion isn’t quite as good (5-4) against the spread, while they are just 2-2 ATS at home and just 3-3 against the spread when favored.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my favorite Troy vs. Old Dominion picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Troy ATS +10.5 (-112) | Troy is coming off a loss, but they have had over a week to get ready for a huge SBC showdown. Their balanced offense and underrated defense should allow them to keep this one relatively close. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Colton Joseph Anytime TD (-240) | The pricing jumped on this, but all this guy does is score. He’s coming off a 3-TD effort and has scored on the ground nine times in 2025. The matchup looks fine, too. | 7/10 |
Over 52.5 (-110) | Troy’s pass defense is good, but I don’t think it will completely shut down a good Old Dominion offense. The Monarchs aren’t scary defensively at all, either, so together, we should be looking at a decent amount of points. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Troy ATS +11.5 (-115)
- Secondary Pick: Colton Joseph Anytime TD (-240)
Troy is good enough to come in and give Old Dominion a fight. They don’t wow you offensively, but they have good balance and do a solid job converting in the red zone.
The Trojans also have a strong pass rush that helps them contain opposing passing games. I don’t think it hurts the game total or impacts Colton Joseph’s ability to score on the ground, but it should play into Troy beating this spread.
Troy vs. Old Dominion odds are moving fast — track every line shift and lock in the best numbers before kickoff. Compare spreads now at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
There are no guarantees when betting on sports. Here’s why these Troy vs. Old Dominion bets could fail:
- Home Field Edge: Old Dominion is at home on a short week – a spot they have yet to lose in this year. It’s not that crazy to think they’ll rise up in front of their home fans and get a big win.
- Master of None: Troy is a balanced offense that can finish drives and be unpredictable, but they also aren’t really elite at anything on offense. That could obviously turn into an issue against a superior offensive team like the Monarchs.
- Defense’s Focus: Colton Joseph scoring a rushing TD feels like one of the best Troy vs. Old Dominion picks you can make, but the Trojans could (and should) prioritize neutralizing him as a runner. If they do that, it’s possible Old Dominion has to turn to someone else to punch the ball into the end zone.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Old Dominion 34, Troy 27
I have the Monarchs staying perfect on their home field and winning this game, but the moneyline is too thick to target. You could bet on them to cover the spread, but it feels awfully rich considering how competitive the Trojans have been in 2025.
Troy had a full week of rest and can’t feel good about how they fared in their last outing. I wonder if that was basically a classic ‘trap’ game, where their focus was on this battle with the Monarchs.
Whatever the case, Troy should give Old Dominion a fight, but neither defense is good enough to be concerned about the Over delivering. As for Colton Joseph, he is just such a huge part of what the Monarchs do that his scoring on the ground feels inevitable, even if we’re not getting the most amazing price.
