Toledo vs. Miami Ohio Prediction & Betting Picks (November 12th, 2025)
The Toledo Rockets travel to take on Miami Ohio on Wednesday night, where they will be solid -176 favorites to get a big road win.
Miami Ohio desperately needs a bounce-back win, as they will be +3.5 underdogs at home after dropping a massive game against MAC rival, Ohio. Both teams enter the night with 5-4 overall records, but a win would tie Toledo with Miami Ohio within conference play.
More than that, it’d be a death blow to Miami Ohio’s bowl aspirations, while vaulting Toledo into the conversation for first place in the conference.
There’s a lot on the line for this mid-week primetime affair, and that won’t make it any easier to finalize your bet slips. I’ve got your back, though, as I’ll look at the latest odds and key matchups to come to my top picks and a Toledo vs. Miami Ohio prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Toledo Rockets (5-4) vs. Miami Ohio RedHawks (5-4)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 12th, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Team Record
- Toledo is 5-4, 3-2 in the MAC.
- Miami Ohio is 5-4, 4-1 in the MAC.
Betting Odds
Check out the most current Toledo vs. Miami Ohio odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Toledo | -3.5 (-115) | -180 | O 45.5 (-105) |
Miami Ohio | +3.5 (-105) | +152 | U 45.5 (-115) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is a fun MAC showdown, as these teams know each other pretty well after facing off 54 times already. Miami Ohio has the lifetime edge (29-24-1), but Toledo won the most recent clash.
The Rockets pulled away in a 30-20 when these two sides last met in October of 2024, while Miami Ohio won the MAC title in 2023 (23-14) over Toledo.
Toledo has had the upper hand overall lately, as they’ve won three of the last four meetings. They got some revenge for that MAC Championship loss, but they’ll be eager to stay hot in this series for several reasons.
Why This Game Matters
The MAC is far from decided, and both of these teams still have a shot to win the conference, so you better believe this game means something.
The rivalry is enough to get both sides up for this one, but Toledo is one game out of first place at the moment. Miami Ohio’s big loss to Ohio last week puts them behind the eight ball, but a win here would keep them within striking distance in the event Ohio falters.
Either of these teams losing would push them further away from bowl consideration. They probably need to win out and claim the MAC title to guarantee one at this point.
Team Profiles
Toledo Rockets
Toledo has had a very up-and-down 2025 campaign, but short of one blowout loss to Washington State, they’ve been in every game.
When they aren’t losing, they are absolutely dominating. The Rockets have only lost defensive battles where the opposition found a way to slow down their offense, while they have poured it on thick with 40+ points in each of their five victories.
That’s thanks to a very balanced offensive attack that comes into Wednesday ranked a solid 37th in passing and 45th in rushing. They aren’t necessarily elite in either area, but they can burn defenses on the ground and through the air.
Running back Chip Trayanum (637 rushing yards, 8 TDs) heads a more than capable running game, while the connection between wide receiver Junior Vandeross III (9 TDs) and quarterback Tucker Gleason (2,020 passing yards, 15 TDs) makes them a threat through the air, just as well.
The elite balance gives Toledo a shot in any matchup, while the offense is fantastic at protecting the football (15th fewest giveaways) and doesn’t take a lot of sacks (14th).
Toledo is even better on the other side of the ball, as they own the nation’s 9th-best scoring defense. That unit has been nasty up front (10th against the run) and is even better (6th) against the pass.
Naturally, the Rockets are completely shutting teams down in their blowout wins, while their balance and defense keep them competitive no matter who they run into.
Miami Ohio RedHawks
Miami Ohio really wants to run the ball, as they come into this game with a 56.7% rush rate. They are respectable on the ground (67th), but top back Jordan Brunson (4.4 yards per carry) isn’t offering enough explosive plays, and they aren’t as efficient as a whole for a team that runs as much as they do.
The RedHawks really need to establish the run, as they aren’t particularly explosive and only rank 86th in scoring. They have a very low completion rate (116th in the country) and turn the ball over more than you’d like to see.
Offensively, they are one-dimensional, and if that one area isn’t clicking, they can get into trouble in a hurry. That said, after a brutal 0-3 start, they did well to go on a five-game winning streak using improved defense and that rushing attack.
They hit a wall in a loss to Ohio last week, and bouncing back against a stiff Rockets defense won’t be easy.
Should Toledo’s defense limit them, they’ll need their defense to step up to help keep the game close. That’s worked out for them lately, as they have allowed more than 24 points just once in their last six contests.
Defensively, Miami Ohio allows more points on average than they score, which is obviously suboptimal. They do own the 22nd best sack rate, however, while they’ve been passable at times against the run.
Against a balanced Toledo offense, they may find a tough time prioritizing one thing to stop.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Miami Ohio’s rush offense vs. Toledo’s run defense: This is easily the biggest thing to watch for this game. The RedHawks 100% need to establish the run to have a shot here, but Toledo has been elite against the run (just 2.8 yards per carry allowed).
- Miami Ohio’s pass rush vs. Toledo’s passing game: Toledo doesn’t need to excel through the air to win this game, but when they pass their o-line needs to be on point. Their pass protection has been great on the year, though, suggesting they can succeed in this matchup.
- Kamryn Perry vs. Toledo’s secondary: The Rockets have been very stingy overall against the pass, but Kamryn Perry is super explosive (26.3 yards per catch). If he can win his individual matchup and get behind the defense, this game could break wide open.
Betting Insights & Trends
Toledo has had the upper hand in this series, winning the most recent matchup and three of the last four meetings.
The Rockets have been good ATS (6-3) on the year, and are 3-2 against the spread in MAC games, as well as 5-3 ATS when favored. They’re just 1-3 against the spread as the road team, however.
Miami Ohio is also a strong 6-3 against the spread on the year. They’ve been fantastic ATS inside the conference (4-1), too, but they are just 1-3 against the spread as the underdog.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my favorite Toledo vs. Miami Ohio picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Toledo -180 | They’re on the road at night in the middle of the week, but they’re the better team. The Rockets have dominated this series, while they have a nasty defense and a far more balanced offense. | 8/10 |
Under 45.5 (-115) | Toledo’s defense has me digging the Under in this one. Miami Ohio will try to run as much as possible, while the Rockets are more than capable of doing the same if/when they are in the lead. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Chip Trayanum Anytime TD (-165) | Toledo is probably going to be leading and scoring a good deal, so it stands to reason their best player will find the end-zone at least once. He has 9 total scores on the year and 1+ touchdown in each of his last six games. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Toledo ML (176)
- Secondary Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
Toledo is on the road, but they look like the better team. They can burn Miami Ohio on the ground or in the air, while their defense should contain the RedHawks, even if their offense struggles.
That defense and Miami Ohio’s playing style make the Under look fantastic. Game totals can be tricky, though, so targeting a player prop like the ever-consistent and reliable Chip Trayanum to score is a great way to cover all of our bases.
Toledo vs. Miami Ohio odds won’t stay put — track every line move, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best price before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
There are no guarantees in sports betting. Here’s why these Toledo vs. Miami Ohio bets could potentially fail:
- Rivalry Game: This is an MAC battle with a ton at stake, so Miami Ohio holding serve and finding a way to gut out a win at home wouldn’t be that shocking.
- Big Play Threat: The matchup against Toledo’s secondary stinks, but Kamryn Perry is a big play waiting to happen. If he uncorks here and takes over, he could flip the script.
- Sacked Lunch: Another ticket to success for Miami Ohio is their solid pass rush livening up enough to make life tough on the Rockets. It’s no lock, but if they can generate pressure they could make Toledo one-dimensional and easier to defend.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Toledo 34, Miami Ohio 17
I sense a blowout here. It feels bad since Miami Ohio has rebounded nicely since that rough start to the year, but last week’s loss to Ohio may have taken the wind out of their sails.
The harsh reality is the RedHawks simply are not consistent or dynamic enough to keep up with Toledo. Even if they were, the Rockets have a nasty defense that limits scoring and overall production on both the ground and in the air.
Toledo does have an uphill battle on the road and at night on a Wednesday, but everything points to them getting the win, and probably rather easily.
