Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina NCAAF Preview & Prediction (September 13, 2025)
Vanderbilt and South Carolina meet again in Columbia for what would be an intriguing encounter, as each team will try to prove its legitimacy. For Vanderbilt, it will be a time to flip the script on South Carolina, and a win here will break South Carolina’s dominance in their previous 5 head-to-head encounters. However, South Carolina’s defense and home crowd energy won’t be a walk in the park, as they are quite capable of keeping Vanderbilt in check.
The game will kick off Saturday, September 13, 2025, at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC. Vanderbilt comes into the game after a road win against Virginia Tech and will hope to extend its road dominance in the series. On the other hand, South Carolina hasn’t had any trouble winning at home this year and will push to keep that record on Saturday.
Game Details
- Matchup: Vanderbilt (2-0) vs. South Carolina (2-0)
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, at 7:45 p.m. ET
- Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC
- How to Watch: SEC Network
The Odds & What They Tell Us (via DraftKings)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt | +3 (-108) | +124 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
South Carolina | -3 (-112) | -148 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Ensure you review the odds, as they might get updated.
Interpretation
The odds project a one-possession game, with South Carolina receiving a modest home-field edge. When it comes to the implied win probability, the moneyline pricing suggests that Vanderbilt has about 42%, while South Carolina hovers around 61%. Then, we have the total of 48.5, which indicates that books expect moderate scoring with little to no chance for a shootout or a grind-fest.
We recommend you weigh whether Vanderbilt’s offensive explosiveness outweighs South Carolina’s defensive reliability. This will be a major deciding factor in the game.
Team Overviews
South Carolina Gamecocks
The team goes into week 3 unbeaten. It also handled its first two opponents with balance on both sides of the ball, with the key strengths being its run defense and an experienced offensive line that keeps Sellers upright.
Opponents have struggled to get past 100 rushing yards/game when facing the South Carolina defense. It gets even better with QB LaNorris Sellers’ dual-threat capability, which forces opponents’ defenses to respect both the pass and the run.
While the run defense and QB have been impressive for the team, their inconsistency in the vertical passing game leaves loopholes for opponents to exploit. This inconsistency has made the team rely more on short and intermediate throws. And with a history of letting weaker opponents hang around, Vanderbilt may just flip the game.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is riding on one of its best starts in recent memory after grabbing a big win against Virginia Tech. The team also defeated Charleston SO a few days before that.
QB Diego Pavia is one player to watch, as he has been dynamic, averaging over 250 passing yards and multiple touchdowns per game. Add that to an offensive lineup that thrives on tempo and creative play-calling, and the Vanderbilt Commodores might just cause an upset in this game.
The Vanderbilt Commodores haven’t been all-stars, though. Their leaky defense gave up chunk plays on the ground early in the season, a weakness South Carolina will likely exploit in this game. The team also had depth and stamina concerns when it faced physical SEC teams on the road.
Head-to-Head & Trends
South Carolina remains the clear favorite when it comes to the head-to-head stats. The team has dominated the series, winning 15 straight meetings against Vanderbilt. It also has a total of 23 victories in its last 25 clashes.
Vanderbilt is 1-1 ATS in 2025, while South Carolina has covered against the spread (ATS) in both games so far this year. As for totals, Vanderbilt’s offensive pace has made its games lean slightly to the “over,” while South Carolina’s games have trended “under,” with the defense setting the tone.
Both teams have conflicting trends, which makes the “total” especially interesting.
Key Players & Matchups to Watch
- LaNorris Sellers (QB, South Carolina): He needs efficiency and ball security to thrive in this game. His team will also have to avoid turnovers when facing Vanderbilt’s opportunistic defense.
- Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt): The Commodores’ success hinges on his ability to hit big plays against SC’s secondary.
- SC Defensive Front vs. Vandy O-Line: Vanderbilt could struggle to sustain drives if South Carolina controls the trenches.
- Explosiveness Factor: The team that creates chunk plays (20+ yard gains) could decide this game.
- Special Teams: Watch out for South Carolina’s reliable kicker as it compares to Vanderbilt’s inconsistency in the kicking game.
What the Numbers Say
- Offense:
- Vanderbilt averages ~34 points per game.
- South Carolina averages ~28 points per game.
- Defense:
- South Carolina allows ~17 points per game, one of the lowest in the SEC so far.
- Vanderbilt has given up ~24 points per game.
- Efficiency:
- SC ranks top-20 nationally in 3rd-down defense.
- Vanderbilt ranks top-25 in passing yards per game but bottom-half in rush defense.
- The current metrics highlight SC’s ability to slow games down while Vanderbilt pushes pace.
Game Flow Predictions
- We expect the game to start slowly as both teams adjust to the loud South Carolina crowd.
- As for the South Carolina team, we expect them to lean on the run game and defense while aiming for the time of possession edge in the game.
- Vanderbilt will try to break the slow pace for a fast tempo and also test SC’s secondary with deep shots.
- Swing factors
- Vanderbilt can push late in the game if Pavia avoids turnovers.
- The South Carolina team can grind out a cover if it establishes ground dominance.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Why It Makes Sense | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
South Carolina −3 (-112) | Small number at home, defensive edge, historical dominance in series. | Medium-High |
Vanderbilt +124 | The bet has a strong value if Pavia’s offense catches fire. SC is also vulnerable to explosive plays. | Medium |
Under 48.5 (-110) | Both teams’ defenses are solid, and their historical matchups have been lower scoring. But note that the public will likely lean over. | Medium |
Can Vanderbilt Break the Streak?
South Carolina has the defensive strength and the home-field advantage that tilts the spread slightly in their favor. However, Vanderbilt’s offense carries upset potential, with turnovers being its major risk.
Our best value is to go with South Carolina -3 and Under 48.5. But if you want to chase plus-money, you can consider the Vanderbilt moneyline for a live dog play.
Overall, we expect a defensive-driven game from both teams. But there’s potential for one or two explosive plays to be the game’s decider.
Final Score Prediction: South Carolina 24, Vanderbilt 20
The game will be a tight contest, but SC’s defense and home edge get them the win and cover.
Betting on Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina? Don’t just settle for the first line you see—compare odds, find the sharpest value, and bet smarter with our football betting guide, where we highlight trusted sportsbooks and strategies for every matchup.
