New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Preview & Prediction (August 13, 2025)
The New York Liberty are still on the road, heading from Cali to Nevada to play the Las Vegas Aces, and they want to keep their eight-game win streak going in the head-to-head series.
Liberty’s run hasn’t been down to one scorer going off; it’s been built on forcing the Aces into half-court possessions they don’t want and taking away their first scoring option.
Natasha Cloud’s ball pressure has limited Jackie Young’s possessions, and Leonie Fiebich’s size on the perimeter? That’s messed with Chelsea Gray’s passing lanes.
How will Las Vegas play this one? A’ja Wilson is the center of the plan; she’s gonna get a deep position early in the shot clock. And if she can draw double-teams, that opens good corner looks for Kelsey Plum and Young, and those are shots they have to hit to stretch New York’s defense. The Aces also need to rebound through traffic; giving the Liberty extra possessions has been the deciding factor in a lot of their recent losses.
Who are we going with for this game? Keep reading for a season series recap, current betting odds and lines, players, main matchups, our picks for the three best bets, a prop angle, and the risk factors you should be aware of if you’re betting!
Game Details & Stakes
- Matchup: New York Liberty (21–11) vs. Las Vegas Aces (18–14)
- Game Details: Wednesday, August 13 at 9:30 pm ET (6:30 pm local)
- Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- How To Watch: Airing on ESPN2 and streaming on WNBA League Pass
- Season Series: Liberty are ahead 2–0 so far; they won 92–78 on May 17 and 87–78 on July 8
Season Series & Recent Form
New York has won both games against Las Vegas this season, winning by 14 and 9 points. The Aces are back at home, and recent meetings have produced higher point totals; four of the last five have gone Over.
Earlier Matchups This Season
- May 17: Liberty 92, Aces 7; Breanna Stewart posted 25 points, and Natasha Cloud added 22 points and 9 assists.
- July 8: Liberty 87, Aces 78; Sabrina Ionescu scored 28 points; A’ja Wilson left the game with an injury.
Form Trends
- Liberty is averaging ~86.7 points per game against Las Vegas this season, compared to the Aces’ ~79.7 ppg in the same stretch.
- Las Vegas has covered select home spots despite the recent head-to-head results.
- Totals have gone Over in 4 of the Aces’ last 5 games.
Betting Odds
How’s the market looking for this matchup? We’ve got the latest odds and lines according to DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Liberty | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | Over 169.5 (-110) |
Aces | -2.5 (-110) | -142 | Under 169.5 (-110) |
Alternate Spreads & Margins
- Liberty opened around –2; bettors can shop alternate lines such as –2.5 for plus odds or find value on the Aces if the line moves in their favor.
Player Prop Highlights
- Ionescu Threes Over 2.5: She’s averaging ~8 attempts from deep; Ionescu is a high-volume perimeter threat against Vegas.
- Wilson Blocks/Rebounds Over: Wilson’s impact presence defensively and on the glass makes her a viable target for both markets.
- First Quarter Liberty Points Over 21.5: Hit this mark in 8 of the last 9 vs. the Aces; there’s a lot of early scoring in this matchup.
Players & Matchups
Who do we have our sights set on for this game? The following players and matchups:
- Breanna Stewart (Liberty): She impacts every possession, if that’s spacing the floor, contesting at the rim, or winning position battles on the boards.
- Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): Averaging 18.9 ppg and firing from deep at volume, her perimeter shooting is still a prop worth tracking at over 2.5 makes.
- Natasha Cloud (Liberty): She brings relentless on-ball defense; matchups against Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray could disrupt Vegas’s offensive groove.
- A’ja Wilson (Aces): She holds down the attack with 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, which forced New York to account for her on both ends.
- Liberty Bench: Capable of maintaining intensity when the starters sit, and they keep rotations balanced without losing any structure.
- Aces Supporting Cast: Output behind Wilson has been kinda erratic, and that puts pressure on her to carry scoring and rebounding duties for longer-than-she-should periods.
Our Best Bets
What’s looking good to us, betting-wise? We’ve got three angles we like and a decent prop!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Liberty –2.5 (-110) | High | New York’s matchup history and ability to attack Vegas’ defensive gaps make this a nice cover spot. |
Liberty +120 | Medium | Underdog odds offer market value given their 2–0 edge in this season’s series. |
Ionescu Over 2.5 Threes | High | High attempt volume paired with an Aces defense that’s had a hard time closing out on shooters. |
Wilson Rebounds or Blocks – Over | Medium | Heavy minutes and size advantage should translate to strong numbers on the glass and at the rim. |
Risk Factors to Know Before Betting
There could be some factors that change the bets for this game, and you need to know what they are before you bet!
- Injury Impact: Without Breanna Stewart? New York loses a major scoring option and one of the league’s best post defenders against A’ja Wilson. If Jonquel Jones gets into foul trouble, Las Vegas could control the paint.
- Perimeter Threat: If Kelsey Plum or Jackie Young heat up from three, New York’s margin for error goes way down.
- Venue Factor: The Aces are 10–5 at Michelob ULTRA Arena this season and usually feed off the crowd in high-profile games.
- Motivation: After dropping both earlier games against the Liberty, Las Vegas is gonna treat this as a must-win.
- Shot Volume Risk: If the Liberty concentrates more on post touches, her perimeter attempts could decrease.
- Defensive Matchups: Chelsea Gray or Jackie Young could apply extended pressure to limit her looks from deep.
- Foul Trouble: Early fouls could cut her minutes and take away her rebounding chances.
- Game Flow: If it’s a slower, half-court-heavy pace, it will limit total rebound chances.
Depth Over Star Power in Sin City
Final Score Prediction: Liberty 90, Aces 84
New York’s ability to rotate impact players without losing floor spacing or defensive coverage has been the difference-maker in this series.
Vegas will have to get sustained production from more than Wilson to stay in range, and their track record against the Liberty shows that that’s a big ask.
We think it’ll be a possession-heavy game that stays close into the last few trips, but New York’s perimeter execution and defensive switches should make it work, and that’s why we are betting on the Liberty to win.
Best Bets Recap
- Alternate Spread: Liberty –2.5 | High Confidence
- Moneyline: Liberty ML (+120) | Medium Confidence
- Prop: Ionescu Over 2.5 Threes | High Confidence
- Prop: Wilson Over Rebounds/Blocks | Medium Confidence
Keep in mind—betting lines can change fast as game time draws near, so reviewing the latest odds is essential. Make sure you’re wagering through one of the top sports betting sites to lock in the best value.
