New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction (August 12, 2025)
Well, lookie here, we’ve got a marquee matchup in Los Angeles! The Liberty are going back to Cali, and the defending champs are gonna have to manage without Breanna Stewart.
The Sparks have been playing really well, and that means this will be a hard-fought battle on the court. And it’s Rivals Week, which means a little extra pressure beyond the usual standings pressure.
This one will be close from tip-off to the final quarter, so keep scrolling to see everything you need to know! We’ve got the latest betting odds and lines, trends, who’s injured, roster notes, live and prop betting highlights, and our three best bets for the Liberty vs. the Sparks!
Game Overview & Stakes
- Matchup: New York Liberty (20-11) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (15-16)
- Game Details: Tuesday, August 12 at 10:00 pm ET
- Location: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
- How To Watch: Streaming on NBA TV
Betting Odds & Market Movement
Putting some money on these ladies? Look below for the current odds and lines posted on FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Liberty | -3.5 (-110) | -172 | Over 177 (-106) |
Sparks | +3.5 (-110) | +140 | Under 177 (-114) |
Betting Trends & Situational Angles
- Sparks form: 9–2 in their last 11 games, with a 4–1 ATS record at home against New York.
- Liberty results vs. the number: 0–5 ATS in their last five games, and they all landed under the total.
- Totals snapshot: The over has hit in 12 of the Sparks’ last 31 games overall.
Injuries & Roster Notes
Both teams come into this game with absences that will likely change how minutes are distributed and where the scoring comes from.
- Liberty: Without Breanna Stewart, Kennedy Burke, and Nyara Sabally? New York loses a huge part of its interior scoring and defensive size.
- Sparks: Kelsey Plum has been attacking early in possessions, putting pressure on defenses before they can set. Julie Allemand has kept the ball moving, finding cutters and hitting shooters in stride. Dearica Hamby is giving them second chances on the glass and drawing contact inside.
Pace & Style Matchups
- Tempo: The Liberty leads the WNBA in possessions per game; Sparks rank 4th, so this will be a high-possession game.
- Offensive Profile: New York sits 3rd in scoring efficiency; Los Angeles ranks 4th.
- Defensive Profile: Liberty also holds the 3rd-best defensive rating; Sparks are 11th, and that leaves them more vulnerable in half-court situations.
- Main Factor: The Sparks have to limit New York’s transition opportunities so that they aren’t pulled into an up-tempo shootout.
Live Bet & Prop Highlights
If you’re live betting or searching for prop angles, here’s what’s available right now, but be sure to check as it gets closer to game time; new ones could be listed!
FanDuel currently has her line at 21 points, with Over priced at –120. She’s been carrying more scoring burden since Stewart went out. If the line slides closer to 18.5 before the game, that will be a spot to consider riding.
Liberty’s mark is hovering in the low-90s, Sparks in the high-80s. Because both sides rank in the top four in possessions per game, live totals can change quickly if the pace heats up early. Watch the first six minutes; the in-game team totals will move fast.
Home games have been where secondary scorers like Rae Burrell and Zia Cooke see an uptick in shot attempts. If they’re aggressive out of the gate? Their points props could be worth a live look before the market catches up.
Our Best Bets
What are we looking at, best-bet-wise? The following three!
1. Spread – Sparks +3.5
Our Confidence Level: Medium–High
Why Do We Like It?
Los Angeles has covered in four of its last five home games against New York. The Liberty haven’t covered in any of their past five contests, and losing Breanna Stewart takes away a big part of their scoring inside and rebounding presence. The Sparks have won three straight, one of them over this same Liberty team, and have topped 90 points in three of their last four outings, which makes it harder for opponents to create separation.
- Key Stat: WNBA home underdogs of +3 to +5 on a win streak of at least three games have covered over 60% of the time in the last five seasons.
2. Total – Over 177
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Both teams are in the top four in pace, creating more trips down the floor and extra shot attempts. Six of the last seven meetings between these squads have cleared the total. With Stewart out, New York’s defense has been easier to score on, and the Sparks rank 11th defensively, so both sides can put up numbers. A close finish could also bring intentional fouls in the closing minutes, which helps the totals push higher.
- Key Stat: Matchups between top-four pace teams have gone over the closing number 68% of the time this year.
3. Player Prop – Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 Points
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Without Stewart, Ionescu has taken on more of the scoring load, and she’s averaging 21.4 points over her last five games. The Sparks rank 9th in points allowed to opposing guards, and Ionescu has already scored 22 and 19 in two earlier meetings this season. The combo of tempo and a likely close scoreline should have her logging 35+ minutes.
- Key Stat: She’s cleared this line in seven of her last ten games when she’s played for 33 minutes or more.
Why the Sparks Could Shock the Champs
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Sparks 88, New York Liberty 85
Los Angeles has a real shot at controlling this one. Why? Because Stewart being out leaves New York more vulnerable in the paint, and that gives the Sparks room to work through Hamby and open driving lanes for their guards.
Their recent scoring runs have come from spreading the floor and forcing defenses to cover every spot, and at home, that approach can be even harder to contain. If LA stays disciplined on defense and keeps attacking mismatches, the Liberty could spend much of the night trying to catch up. And that’s why we are with the Sparks!
Best Bets Recap
- Sparks +3.5: Our Confidence Level: Medium-High
- Over 177: Our Confidence Level: Medium
- Ionescu Over 18.5 Points: Our Confidence Level: Medium
Ready to place your bets? Check out our best sportsbook recommendations now!
