Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Preview & Prediction (August 1, 2025)
Brittney Griner will take on her former team since joining the Atlanta Dream. She averages 10.2 points with 5.7 rebounds, and let’s not forget that the Atlanta Dream team is also the best they’ve had in several years. The Dream took home the win in their last encounter against the Phoenix Mercury. But is Mercury prepared to make up for the last encounter that ended 79:90?
Mercury will go into the game with a loss against the Fever, while the Dream will have to fight off fatigue despite coming from a win on the road against the Wings. The Dream has also grabbed the win in its last three encounters on the road. But when it comes to season stats, both teams are on par, each taking 16 wins so far in the season.
As for the head-to-head stats, the Phoenix Mercury has the upper hand with 10 wins compared to the Dream’s 6 wins. These stats are based on their encounters for the past 6 years, which puts the Phoenix Mercury as the favorite, but let’s review even further.
Game Details and Context
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–10) vs. Atlanta Dream (16–11)
- Date & Time: Friday, August 1, at 8 pm MT / 10 pm ET,
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, Georgia
- How to Watch: CBSSN nationally and WNBA League Pass
Here are some key storylines to keep in mind as we run through our pick for the game:
- Atlanta is playing back-to-back and without all-star Rhyne Howard.
- Phoenix is healthy and features Sabally, Copper, and Thomas, all ramped up.
- Home-court advantage key: Mercury 9-5 at home, Dream just 5-9 on the road.
Team Analysis
Both teams have fared well this season, but if we were to judge from the last five encounters, then the Atlanta Dream has the upper hand. The team has won four out of its last five matches, and all four have been on the road. The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, has won only one of its last five encounters. But those aren’t enough to pick the winner. Let’s consider the key team strengths and weaknesses.
Phoenix Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury has been impressive at home, grabbing 9 wins. Its defense and offense are formidable and evenly powered. Even better, the team has the third-best defensive rating in the WNBA.
A few key players that will likely give the Atlanta Dream a run for their money include Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, and veteran playmaker Alyssa Thomas. Note that Alyssa Thomas is not just a veteran playmaker but one with a strong inside-out presence.
Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper are healthy on the back. Even better, you can expect a scoring punch from the duo in the game. The Phoenix Mercury looks all set with its star power, but we can’t say the same for the Atlanta Dream, which will also likely suffer from travel fatigue. The game with the Mercury will be its second night of a back-to-back.
Atlanta Dream
The Atlanta Dream team will go into the match without all-star Rhyne Howard. Rhyne averages 16.5 points per game and would have been a key force in the game. Her absence will undoubtedly limit the Dream’s scoring options and reduce its offensive power.
Despite Rhyne’s absence, the Atlanta Dream boasts a veteran frontcourt duo in Brionna Jones & Brittney Griner. We can expect experience from the duo, and coupled with Allisha Gray as the center of offense, the Atlanta Dream might just maintain their current win against the Phoenix Mercury in the head-to-head encounters. Allisha Gray enters the game with 23+ point/rebound lines in recent games.
Betting Lines and Trends
The sportsbooks have weighed in—here are the most up-to-date odds from ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Mercury | -3.5 (-105) | -155 | Over 166.5 (-105) |
Dream | +3.5 (-115) | +135 | Under 166.5 (-115) |
- ATS & O/U Trends:
- Dream: 3‑7 ATS last 10 games, under in 4 of 6 road games recently.
- Mercury: 6‑3 ATS last 9, 4‑1 ATS last 5 at home. Under has hit in 4 of the last 6 overall games.
Gameflow and Matchups
It looks like Allisha Gray will have to carry the Atlanta Dream in this game, as the team has a thin bench, size mismatch, and travel fatigue. And let’s not forget the absence of all-star Rhyne Howard.
On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury has been much faster at home, and it’ll come into the game with a full, healthy roster. The team also has a stellar depth compared to the Atlanta Dream. It is likely to overwhelm the Atlanta Dream as its elite defense fends off the Dream offense.
Best Bets
✅ Bet #1: Phoenix Mercury -3.5 (-105)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Rationale
- Phoenix has been dominant at home so far and is likely to carry on that dominance, especially with the Atlanta Dream facing second-leg fatigue. The Dream will also be without its key player, Howard, while Phoenix’s defensive pressure will make the line feel short.
- Another reason is because Phoenix has effortlessly covered wins by 9-12 in most projected outcomes.
✅ Bet #2: Under 166.5 (-115)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Rationale
- Both teams have trended under recently. And we can also expect a late-game blowout to curb the scoring pace.
- Another key factor in the scores is that the Dream will play without its key scorer, Howard. Add that to Phoenix’s stellar defense, and you can expect a half-court game.
✅ Bet #3: Phoenix Mercury -155 (for conservative bettors)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Rationale
- There is a strong likelihood for the scoreline (~76–78%). It could also serve as a solid parlay leg.
- The bet is a good anchor for lower-risk same-game tickets or teaser scenarios.
Make sure to check the latest odds on our best sports betting sites before placing your Mercury vs. Dream bets—lines can move as tip-off approaches, and staying informed can help you find the best value.
Our Take: Lock in These Picks
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 88 – Atlanta Dream 77
The Phoenix Mercury will have no stress covering, but the total stays under.
The Atlanta Dream goes on depleted and without adequate rest against a healthier Phoenix Mercury, which has also been dominant at home. You can expect a physical and lower-scoring control game.
When it comes to offense and defense, the Phoenix Mercury is a master of both and will likely outplay the Atlanta Dream. The Mercury also has better depth and energy levels compared to the Dream, which is on the second leg of its back-to-back on the road.
As for our top picks and confidence levels, here are the bets to consider:
- Mercury -2.5 (spread): High confidence
- Under 164.5: Moderate confidence
- Mercury ML (Moneyline): Solid parlay anchor
