Inter Miami vs. FC Cincinnati Prediction & Betting Preview (July 26, 2025)
Inter Miami will get another crack at FC Cincinnati on Saturday, barely a week removed from a 3–0 defeat in Ohio. And this time, they’ll be in Fort Lauderdale, and they’re looking much better after putting five past the Red Bulls in a stellar performance.
FC Cincinnati enters with three wins on the bounce and eight goals to show for it. They’ve been absolutely clinical in front of the goal and won’t bat an eye at playing Messi and Miami again, not after beating them.
This is the last league match before the Leagues Cup kicks off, and Cincy wants to stay on top. Miami wants payback. Who’ll run the field?
Keep reading to find out what you need to know! We’ve got game stakes, team forms, stats, the current betting odds, tactical matchups, our choices for the three best bets, and a bonus angle!
Game Details
- Matchup:FC Cincinnati at Inter Miami
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 26 at 7:15 p.m. ET (23:15 UTC)
- Venue: Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL
- How To Watch: Live on Apple TV (MLS Season Pass), FS1, and FOX Deportes; English radio on iHeart/ESPN 1530 AM, Spanish radio on La Mega 101.5 FM (Cincinnati region)
- Weather Forecast: Warm and humid; around 31°C (88°F) at kickoff
Why This Match Matters
- Inter Miami is in 7th in the East with 41 points, and they’re trying to stay above the playoff line. Cincinnati is in second place with 48 points and is chasing first place.
- Their most famous meeting came in the 2023 U.S. Open Cup semis; it was a 3–3 draw that went to penalties.
- Cincinnati beat Miami 3–0 a week ago, so this is Miami’s chance to clap back before heading into Leagues Cup play.
Team Form & Key Stats
Inter Miami looks to control tempo through Messi’s link-ups and Busquets’ distribution, and Cincinnati pushes the game vertically; they target space with Denkey’s movement and Acosta’s passing. Here’s a look at both teams’ forms and the main stats!
Inter Miami
- Javier Mascherano has really leaned into a possession-first setup with Messi at the center of everything; dropping into midfield, pulling strings, and finishing chances when space opens up.
- Messi leads the league with 22 goals and continues to act as both initiator and finisher in Miami’s front three.
- Their recent form saw a 3-match win streak broken in that 3–0 loss to Cincinnati; their midfield got bypassed way too easily, and defensive cover was too slow to recover.
- When Miami loses the ball in transition, their midfield spacing leaves the back line exposed, especially when Alba overlaps and leaves gaps wide.
FC Cincinnati
- Pat Noonan’s side plays with marked structure, favoring compact lines and vertical passing. They’ve been methodical in possession and really patient when they don’t have the ball.
- Striker Kevin Denkey has 13 goals; he drags defenders out of position and opens up room for midfield runners like Acosta to get into advanced spaces.
- Cincinnati has scored 8 times during their last three games and has gotten results in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- In their last win over Miami, they controlled midfield traffic and forced turnovers in dangerous areas, converting quick plays into goals before Miami had a chance to reset.
Odds & Betting Lines
Putting your money where your mouth is for Miami or Cincinnati? Here are the latest betting odds and lines via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Inter Miami +125
- Draw +260
- FC Cincinnati +175
Spread
- Inter Miami –0.5 (+120)
- FC Cincinnati +0.5 (–165)
Over/Under
- Over 3.5 (+155)
- Under 3.5 (-200)
Make sure to check the most up-to-date odds before placing your wagers. Lines can move as game time approaches, so it pays to stay current!
Tactical Matchup
Let’s get into the tactical matchups for this game!
- Messi & Suárez against Cincinnati’s defensive unit: Miami’s movement and vision in the final third will challenge a Cincinnati backline that’s built on size and structure. Expect to see close marking and early pressure on the ball to disrupt the rhythm.
- Midfield control: Sergio Busquets dictates tempo with short passing and positioning, but Cincy’s pairing (likely to be Obi and Moreno) adds pressure and vertical drive that could force Miami into making hasty decisions.
- Chase Stadium vs. Cincinnati’s road approach: Playing in Fort Lauderdale does give Miami a boost, but Cincy has been really organized away from home; they stay compact and choose when to step out instead of pressing high.
Our Best Bets
Time for our best bets! We’ve got our eye on three angles that look worthwhile and a bonus lean!
Best Bet #1: Inter Miami to Win
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Miami’s been really hard to take points from at Chase Stadium; they’ve got 9 wins and only 1 defeat so far.
- Cincinnati doesn’t travel that well and tends to give up space against sides that play through the middle.
- Messi is always the centerpiece; he’s scored in 7 of his last 9 at home and usually finds another gear in matches like this.
Supporting Stats
- Miami averages 2.3 goals per game at home.
- Cincy’s allowed 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 road games.
Best Bet #2: Over 3.5 Total Goals
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- These two teams combine for over 3.9 goals per game this season.
- Their last three head-to-heads all hit 4 goals or more, and that includes the 3–3 Open Cup shootout.
- Both play open systems with fullbacks high and midfield gaps that get exploited.
Supporting Stats
- 6 of Miami’s last 8 games have finished with 4+ goals.
- Cincinnati’s road xG allowed sits near 1.9.
Best Bet #3: Lionel Messi Anytime Goal Scorer (-105 to +100 range)
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Messi is the league’s leading scorer with 22 goals in 23 appearances.
- Gets penalties, set pieces, and shoots more than any other player in the MLS.
- Scored twice against Cincinnati in their last high-profile meeting, and once again, he’ll be the focal point on Saturday.
Supporting Stats
- Messi has a record of 5 shots per match average, and that’s the highest in the league.
- He’s found the net in 7 of his last 9 games at home.
Bonus Lean: Both Teams to Score – Yes (BTTS)
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Denkey, Baird, and Kubo give Cincinnati a lot of finishing options.
- Miami commits numbers forward and usually concedes off turnovers and broken midfield shape.
- BTTS has hit in 4 of the last 5 matchups between these two clubs.
Betting Tips & Strategy
- If this one starts out slow, the totals could shift early on, so watch for a flat opening 15 to trigger better O/U odds.
- Limit your exposure to one or two focused bets instead of stacking risky combos.
- Check the confirmed lineups before kickoff; late scratches can change roles and the whole game’s tempo.
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati: How We See It Playing Out
Look, there’s no other way to say it; Cincinnati embarrassed Miami last week. A shutout with Messi on the field? What? That had to hurt.
But Messi and co. have a chance to get back at Cincy with this one, and they get to do it at home. Miami’s attack looked lifeless in the last meeting, but that won’t happen twice.
Messi will find pockets and Suárez will drag defenders around, so they’re in a way better spot to make holes in Cincinnati’s form. Denkey is still a big threat on the break, and Baird’s service into the box can turn sloppy moves into goals. But away from TQL, Cincinnati’s defensive line has looked a little stretched and reactive.
We think it’ll be a high-scoring affair, and that Miami will look a heck of a lot more awake this time around, so we’re backing them.
Best Bets Recap
- Inter Miami ML (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆)
- Over 3.5 Total Goals (⭐️⭐️⭐️☆)
- Messi Anytime Goal (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆)
Live betting could be useful if the match opens up early, so watch for changes in totals or goal scorer props once the game is afoot!
Final Score Prediction: Inter Miami 3 – 2 FC Cincinnati
Messi at home will be the difference-maker, and with Miami pressing harder than they did in Ohio, they’re in a good position to dictate the pace. Cincinnati has enough up front to stay close, but their road defense has taken too many hits. The visitors just don’t have the defensive depth to hold Miami off for 90 minutes here.
