Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Top Bets (July 18, 2025)
The Tampa Bay Rays are welcoming the Baltimore Orioles (AL East rivals) to Tropicana Field (officially called the George M. Steinbrenner Field) for a three-game series that kicks off on Friday, July 18. The first pitch will be thrown at 7:35 p.m. ET!
Charlie Morton is slated to start for Baltimore, and Taj Bradley will get the ball for Tampa Bay.
The Rays are back from a break and trying to stop a four-game slide. They’ll open the second half with these three games at home against the Orioles, and that’ll be followed by another series against the White Sox.
Baltimore went 4–3 against Tampa Bay in the first half, splitting a four-game set and then taking two of three. The Orioles dropped their last two games before the break, but they won three in a row before that, which ended a disappointing first half.
Who’s got the advantage in this ballgame? Keep reading to find out the game details, the latest betting odds, starting pitcher stats, matchups to watch, and our handpicked three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Friday, July 18, at 7:35 p.m. ET
- Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa; the Rays are playing their home games there this season due to Tropicana Field damage
- How to Watch: MLB Network, Marquee Sports Network (CHC region), NESN (BOS region), MLB.tv
- Starting Pitchers: TV coverage on MASN2 (Orioles) and FanDuel Sports Network Sun (formerly Bally Sports Sun) for Rays games; streaming available on MLB.TV
Betting Odds
Ready to put some money down on this game? Here are the current betting odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Orioles | -1.5 (+157) | +100 | Over 9 (-107) |
Rays | +1.5 (-193) | -122 | Under 9 (-113) |
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
Who’s on the hill for the Orioles and the Rays? Here’s who’s starting:
Baltimore: Charlie Morton (RHP)
Record: 5-7 | ERA: 5.18 | WHIP: 1.37
Morton threw six really strong innings against the Mets in his last start, allowing only one earned run. But his walk rate is up, and lefty hitters are squaring him up more and more; they’re hitting .287 against him. Morton threw six strong innings against the Mets in his last start, allowing just one earned run. That said, his walk rate is up, and hitters are squaring him up more frequently—especially lefties, who are hitting .287 against him. His inability to get ahead is forcing him into reactive counts.
Tampa Bay: Taj Bradley (RHP)
Record: 5-6 | ERA: 4.60 | WHIP: 1.32
Bradley racked up 11 strikeouts against the Yankees last month, but he’s had a hard time working late into games because of his inconsistent pitching. The Orioles got to him in their last meeting; they took advantage when he fell behind in the count. When he misses? He’s giving up barrels and extra-base hits to both sides of the field.
Betting Trends & Insights
- The Orioles are 7–3 against the spread in their last 10 as underdogs.
- The Rays are 4–6 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The under has hit in 7 of the Orioles’ last 10 games.
- Baltimore’s bullpen has really improved with some midseason moves.
- Tampa Bay has a .701 OPS vs. right-handed pitching.
Player Matchups to Watch
Who should you be watching in this game? These three matchups!
- Gunnar Henderson vs. Taj Bradley: Henderson has already homered off Bradley once this season; he hits velocity really well and hunts early-count fastballs.
- Yandy Díaz vs. Morton: Díaz has a career .300 hitter off righties this year; he has low whiff rates and good numbers at this ballpark.
- Jorge Mateo on the bases: He’s a constant baserunning factor against Tampa. Mateo already has multiple steals in this matchup and has pushed throws out of position with really aggressive jumps. When he’s active, the infield and pitcher both speed up, trying to contain him.
Our Best Bets
How are we playing this one? Look below for our three best bets!
| Pick | Confidence | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Orioles +100 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5) | Baltimore’s just playing better baseball right now, and Morton has been more composed in his last two outings. |
Rays +1.5 (-193) | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (3/5) | This is the safer option in what could be a close game in the late innings. |
Under 9 –110 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5) | Morton and Bradley have both started to limit hits, and this total feels like it’s one run too high. |
Back the Birds: Why the Odds Favor Baltimore
Final Score Prediction: Orioles 5, Rays 4
The game will be close, but the Orioles’ bullpen will work their magic in the later innings!
The Orioles are getting overlooked here. They’ve been the more reliable team coming out of the break, and Charlie Morton’s recent outings show real signs of improvement. Tampa Bay hasn’t been covering the run line at home, and Bradley’s outings have been short when he can’t stay ahead or manage contact. The total also leans toward the under based on how these two teams have been scoring (or not scoring) in the past few weeks!
Best Bets Recap
- Orioles Moneyline (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆: The Birds have better form, more momentum, and a starter who’s trending up.
- Rays +1.5 Run Line (-193) ⭐⭐⭐☆☆: There’s an added margin in a close game with extra value if it’s low-scoring.
- Under 9 Total Runs (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆: Both teams have been leaning under as of late, and the pitching matchup supports it!
