Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Top Picks (July 11, 2025)
And then there were four. The last men standing at Wimbledon are battling it out for a place in the finals.
Two of them are the USA’s Taylor Fritz and Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz, and only one of them will advance to the last round.
If Fritz makes it all the way, it’ll be the first time an American has won this Grand Slam in 16 years (or made it to a final). And if Alcaraz takes it, it’ll be his third in a row at Wimbledon.
We can’t put the cart before the horse, because neither of them is in the finals yet! We are gonna break down the who, what, where, when, betting odds, player profiles, all of the stats, what we think are the three best bets, and a bonus play!
Match Details
- Rankings: Carlos Alcaraz (World No. 2), Taylor Fritz (World No. 5)
- Date & Time: Friday, July 11, at 1:30 pm BST (8:30 am ET)
- Venue: Centre Court, All England Club, Wimbledon, London
- Tournament Stage: Men’s Singles Semifinal
- How to Watch: In the U.S., matches will stream live on ESPN and ESPN+
- What’s at Stake: A spot in the Wimbledon final! Alcaraz is after a third consecutive title, and Fritz is trying to become the first American man to reach the final since 2009
Player Profiles & Main Storylines
How have these two been playing, and what should you be looking out for in this match?
Carlos Alcaraz (Spain)
- Grass record (2025): 9–0
- Main strengths: Shot variety, return positioning, and really quick transitions from defense to offense
- Mental approach: He’s focused, seems comfortable in big tourneys, and shows no signs of panic even when he’s behind
Alcaraz arrives at the semifinal with 23 straight wins overall and 19 consecutive victories at Wimbledon. His serve has looked a lot more precise than in past seasons; there’s been better variation in pace and placement. From the baseline, he mixes sharp angles with short slices and has leaned on his drop shot to get his opponents off balance. Against bigger servers like Fritz, he’s usually trying to extend rallies and attack the second serve.
Taylor Fritz (USA)
- Grass record (2025): 13–1
- Main strengths: His first-strike serve (which peaks around 149 mph), a really powerful forehand from the deuce side, and better net instincts
- Mental approach: He looks confident, measured, and a lot more composed in longer sets than he did earlier in his tennis career
Fritz reaches his first Wimbledon semifinal and becomes the first American man to get this far since Andy Roddick in 2009. He’s been landing first serves around 66% and has totaled the second-most aces of any player in the tournament. His forehand has held up really well under pressure, and he’s finished more points at net than in any of his prior Slam runs.
Betting Odds
Look below for the latest betting odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total | 1st Set ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcaraz | -575 | -5.5 (-130) | Over 38.5 (+100) | -300 |
Fritz | +400 | +5.5 (-105) | Under 38.5 (-135) | +215 |
Head-to-Head & Recent Form
- Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 2–0; Fritz has yet to win a set against him
Wimbledon 2025
- Alcaraz dropped a set in each of his first three matches, but he kept points short and beat Norrie with controlled aggression in the quarterfinal.
- Fritz was pushed in the early rounds but managed to overcome Khachanov in four sets.
- Alcaraz has found his footing as the tournament’s gone on, and Fritz has relied really heavily on his serve and first-strike play to get through close points.
Matchups & Tactical Breakdown
Here’s how Fritz and Alcaraz have played so far, and a tactical view of their games:
Fritz is averaging over 15 aces per match this tournament and lands his first serve around 66% of the time; he wins over 78% of those points. Alcaraz stands far behind the baseline to read the pace but usually steps in on second serves; he’s converted 42% of break points through five rounds. If Fritz misses his spots? Alcaraz will force baseline exchanges off the return.
Alcaraz changes direction off both wings and keeps his backhand deep and flat, and he’ll use that to pin Fritz in the deuce corner and then open the court with his forehand. Fritz’s forehand can dictate when he’s set, but on the run? It breaks down under pressure. Alcaraz will try to drag him wide and finish points with short angles.
Alcaraz has come to the net over 100 times in this tournament and is winning over 70% of those points. He uses the drop shot to draw opponents in and then passes off either wing. Fritz has decent hands at the net, but he doesn’t come forward behind deep balls as naturally. If Alcaraz gets him chasing forward, it breaks up Fritz’s pattern from the baseline.
Fritz has spent more time on court and played more tiebreaks; he’s been good, but not always successful in closing sets. Alcaraz, even when he’s lost a set, has rebounded and played his best tennis in high-pressure moments (11–4 in tiebreaks this season). If this goes past three sets, the physical and mental edge leans toward Alcaraz.
Fritz could hold serve through the first 8–10 games, but Alcaraz applies pressure in return games without overhitting. If Fritz misses more than 35% of first serves in a set, Alcaraz has the shots to break up pace variation and deep returns off the backhand wing, and that’ll be when the match shifts.
Our Best Bets
For the semifinal, we’ve handpicked three smart angles and a bonus value play! Here are our best bets:
#1 Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3–1
- Odds Range: +225 to +250 (varies by book)
- Our Confidence Level: 8/10
Why Do We Like It?
Alcaraz has won 19 straight at Wimbledon and hasn’t lost to Fritz in their two previous matches. He’s dropped a set in three of five matches this tournament, usually needing a set to adapt.
Fritz has held over 88% of service games on grass this season and is averaging nearly 14 aces per match. He should take a set, and it’ll likely be before Alcaraz starts dictating the pace in longer rallies.
#2 Taylor Fritz +5.5 Games (Spread)
- Odds Range: Around -110
- Our Confidence Level: 6.5/10
Why Do We Like It?
Even if our prediction is right and Fritz loses in four, the set scores are going to stay close, and something like 7–5, 4–6, 6–4, 6–4 keeps this inside the number. He’s lost serve only four times through five rounds.
If this goes to a tiebreak or two? Fritz covers even if he loses.
#3 Over 9.5 Games in Set 1
- Odds Range: +105 to +120
- Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
Fritz hasn’t been broken in the first set of any match this tournament. Alcaraz uses early sets to test patterns without forcing it.
Both players are serving really well, and unless one of them misses an early opportunity, this probably ends 6–4 or 7–5.
Bonus Bet: Bet Builder – Fritz 15+ Aces / Alcaraz 5+ Double Faults / Over 3.5 Sets
- Odds Range: +500 to +600 (FanDuel or Bet365 custom builder)
- Our Confidence Level: 5/10 (fun value play)
Why Do We Like It?
Fritz has hit 84 aces across five rounds. Alcaraz has had a few lapses under pressure; he’s had multiple matches with 5+ double faults. Over 3.5 sets is realistic in any scenario where Fritz holds serve and pushes a breaker.
It’s a high-risk combo but well-supported by their tournament stats so far!
Ready to place a wager on this Wimbledon matchup? Check out these betting site recommendations for the best odds and excellent bonus offers.
Will the Streak Continue? Alcaraz Eyes Another Wimbledon Final
Our Final Prediction:
- Carlos Alcaraz defeats Taylor Fritz 3 sets to 1
- Set scores projection: 6–4, 6–7, 6–3, 7–5
Alcaraz has beaten Fritz twice before by attacking second serves, redirecting into the forehand corner, and forcing awkward shot selections from mid-court. His return position cuts time, and his shot placement pulls his opponents out wide without giving them any kind of pace to work with.
Fritz is serving as well as anyone who’s left in the draw; he’s averaging over 13 aces per match and has held above 88% of the time on grass this season. If he hits his spots and keeps rallies short? He can keep it close. But if Alcaraz gets returns down near the baseline and pulls Fritz into longer exchanges, that advantage is lost.
Best Bets Recap
- Alcaraz to win 3–1: (8/10)
- Fritz +5.5 games: (6.5/10)
- Over 9.5 games in Set 1: (7/10)
