FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Prediction & Betting Picks (July 12, 2025)
If the MLS has a version of a knife fight? The Ohio Derby is it. And that’s just the official name. The unofficial name? That would be the “Hell is Real Derby,” and it occurs twice a year.
How did it get this moniker? In 2004, Kentucky developer Jimmy Harston put up a giant black and white billboard on I-71 about halfway between Cincinnati and Columbus, and it read “Hell is Real.” That’s the origin story, and it stuck.
It’s MLS’s most bitter state-line matchup, and on July 12, FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew meet on the pitch to battle it out.
Cincinnati hasn’t lost a home match in over a month, and Columbus just ripped Charlotte apart and hasn’t lost in six. Both clubs are in the playoff race, so this will be a high-intensity, high-pressure, and super hostile 90 minutes.
If you want to bet on this one (you should, this one is always fun), we have found three solid wagers and a couple of props!
Keep scrolling to see all of the stats, betting odds, expert bet analysis, and our top picks that have the most value for the “Hell is Real” Derby.
Match Details & What’s On the Line
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 12, 7:30 pm ET
- Venue: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- Current Standings: FC Cincinnati: 2nd in Eastern Conference (41 pts, 13W-5D-6L); Columbus Crew: 4th in Eastern Conference (38 pts, 11W-5D-7L)
- Recent Form (Last 5 MLS Matches): FC Cincinnati: W-W-D-L-W; Columbus Crew: W-L-W-W-D
- What’s at Stake: A win puts Cincinnati five points clear of Columbus with the season series locked up. Columbus still has games to play, but losing here would put a ton of pressure on their next two fixtures. Both clubs are in the top four, but with Orlando and Miami closing in, neither one can afford to give up any ground if they want to secure a home playoff spot.
Latest Betting Odds & Market Movement
You’re gonna want to get in on this action! Here are the latest betting odds and lines posted on DraftKings:
Moneyline (3-way)
- FC Cincinnati +130
- Draw +265
- Columbus Crew +170
Both Teams to Score
- Yes -205
- No +160
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (-175)
- Under 2.5 (+135)
Notable Props
- Diego Rossi (Crew) Anytime Goalscorer: Between +160 to +180
Line Movement
As of publication, there hasn’t been any noticeable line movement, but that can and probably will change as the game gets closer!
Stats & Trends to Know
Below is what the recent numbers and matchup history tell us going into Saturday’s “Hell is Real” derby.
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Home/Away Splits |
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Goals Scored/Conceded |
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xG (Expected Goals) |
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Expert Betting Analysis & Insights
From a betting perspective, what will matter most for this game? Look below for tactics, matchups, and external factors that can move markets.
Tactical Breakdown
- Cincinnati has relied on home control all season long; they’ve been pressing high, recovering possession quickly, and letting Da Silva Ferreira dictate tempo in the final third. He leads MLS in key passes and continues to create most of their scoring chances.
- Columbus is at its most dangerous when it wins the ball in midfield and counters through Rossi and Russel-Rowe. They’ve combined for 17 goal contributions, and their movement has pulled apart way more organized back lines than Cincinnati’s.
- Both teams average over 1.5 goals per match, but defensive lapses have cost them; Cincinnati has been caught on second balls inside the box, and Columbus has given up chances after failed clearances and late fouls near the goal.
Situational Factors
- Weather forecast: Forecasts call for high humidity and possible storms around kickoff time. If rain does hit, you can expect slower ball movement and a heavier pitch; conditions that usually limit wide buildup and favor set pieces or direct play through the middle.
- Lineups: Cincinnati should be at full strength, though a rotation risk is possible with a midweek fixture ahead. Columbus might need to adjust in midfield if Nagbe isn’t available; his absence has changed their core shape in past games.
Our Best Bets
What are the angles that we think offer the most value? We have three best bets and a bonus prop for you!
Best Bet #1: Over 2.5 Goals (-140)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Both clubs are averaging over 1.7 expected goals per match and have combined to hit this number in 7 of their last 10. The last five “Hell is Real” games have averaged 3.2 goals, and only one finished under. Both of them push numbers forward and leave space when play turns, and neither defense is built to manage pace in transition for a full 90 minutes.
Best Bet #2: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-160)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
BTTS has landed in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 10 at home and 7 of Columbus’s last 10 on the road. Both teams use open setups and aren’t shy about pressing high, even if it risks exposing the back line. With Da Silva Ferreira pulling the strings and Rossi lurking in the channels, it’s really hard to see either side keeping a clean sheet.
Best Bet #3: FC Cincinnati Moneyline (+120)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Cincinnati is unbeaten in 7 straight at TQL and has beaten teams with similar setups to Columbus. Their midfield covers more ground, and at home, they’ve gotten better at turning defensive stops into high-quality chances. Columbus can score, but they’ve dropped points in 3 of their last 5 away and haven’t looked great defending width.
Bonus Prop: Diego Rossi Anytime Goalscorer (+185)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Rossi has 43 goals in his last 6 games and is still the Crew’s best outlet in broken-play moments. Cincinnati has conceded 4 in a row at home, and those were mostly off defensive lapses and slow rotations after turnovers. If Columbus scores? Odds are pretty good that Rossi is there.
Final Whistle – Our Last Word & Prediction
Final Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2-1 Columbus Crew
Cincinnati doesn’t need to have long stretches of possession! All they have to do is keep Columbus from controlling the middle. And if Nagbe is out? That job gets a whole lot easier. Even if he does play, Cincinnati has the advantage at TQL; they’ve produced more high-percentage shots and forced better saves in similar matchups, and their midfield does more work without the ball.
Columbus can break through, but they’ll need to finish from limited windows. Cincinnati’s attack is more direct, and their back line recovers faster when things break down.
NOTE: Watch the lineups! If Nagbe’s out, Columbus loses their best link between pressure and buildup, and that will change how they play the first 30 minutes.
Best Bets Recap
- Over 2.5 Goals (-140): ★★★★☆
- Both Teams to Score – Yes (-160): ★★★★☆
- FC Cincinnati ML (+120): ★★★☆☆
- Rossi Hernández Anytime Goalscorer (+185): ★★★☆☆
If the odds change closer to game time and you want to determine the implied probability the bookmakers are showing for each team, check out our betting odds calculator for quick help.
