Brandon Nakashima vs. Reilly Opelka Preview & Prediction (July 3, 2025)
It’s Round 2 of the Wimbledon men’s draw on one of the outside show courts, and the two players tallying it out will be Brandon Nakashima and Reilly Opelka. The two Americans have super different approaches to playing on grass.
Nakashima is at his best when he controls baseline patterns and forces opponents to hit extra balls. Opelka, who is returning from a long injury layoff, still relies on his serve-first game, and he uses his size (this man is almost 7 feet tall, 6’11 to be exact) to keep points as short as possible.
Nakashima came through a four-set win over Jiri Lehecka, winning 83% of first-serve points and keeping his unforced error count under 20. Opelka didn’t have a hard time in his opener either; he only dropped five points on serve and hit 19 aces without facing a breakpoint.
Who’ll win this one? That depends on if Nakashima can get enough returns in play to apply pressure early in Opelka’s service games or if Opelka keeps holding without any disruption.
Ready to find out the specifics? Look below for the match details, betting odds, player profiles, recent form, and our three best bet options!
Match Details
- Matchup: Brandon Nakashima (USA) vs. Reilly Opelka (USA)
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, approx 9:30 am ET
- Round: Second Round, Men’s Singles, Wimbledon
- Venue: All England Club, Outdoor Grass Courts
- How to Watch: ESPN / ESPN+: Coverage begins daily at 6 a.m. ET, including all courts during the first week
Betting Odds
If you want to bet on this matchup, look below for the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
| Player | Moneyline | Set 1 Winner | Total Match Games |
|---|---|---|---|
Nakashima | -230 | -160 | Over 43.5 (-110) |
Opelka | +188 | +130 | Under 43.5 (-120) |
Player Profiles
Nakashima builds points from the ground up. Opelka? He is trying to end them before his opponent can get to the ball. Here’s how they match up:
Brandon Nakashima
- Age: 23, ATP No. 34 (career-high No. 29)
Nakashima’s game is based entirely on timing and control. He plays close to the baseline, takes the ball early, and looks to move opponents with placement over pace. Grass really suits his compact strokes and court positioning, especially when the rallies stay under five shots.
Reilly Opelka
- Age: 27, No. 70
Opelka has one of the most difficult serves on tour; it’s flat, fast (over 140 mph), and really hard to read. He keeps points short by design and hardly plays beyond two or three shots. If his first serve is landing above 70%? His opponents get very few chances to get into return games.t strokes and court positioning, especially when the rallies stay under five shots.
H2H & Recent Form
- Head-to-head is 1–1: Nakashima won on hard court in Delray Beach (February); Opelka won their only other meeting in 2022.
- Grass results are nearly identical: Each has a win rate near 55% this season, but hasn’t reached a semifinal on grass.
- Round 1 form is level: Nakashima went four sets with Lehecka; Opelka won in straight sets without facing a breakpoint.
Our Best Bets
Where do we think the value is? The following are our choices for the three best bets!
Moneyline – Nakashima to win
- Our Confidence Level: 4/5
Models give him a 65% edge. He’s stronger in extended rallies and handles low-bouncing shots really well on grass.
1st Set – Opelka to win
- Our Confidence Level: 3/5
Opelka won 86% of first-serve points in Round 1 and never was up against a breakpoint. His best chance is taking the lead before Nakashima adjusts to his patterns.
Total Aces – Over 20.5
- Our Confidence Level: 4/5
Opelka can hit 15+ on his own if this goes three sets. Nakashima adds a few with his direct, low-bounce serve, so the number should clear easily.
What We Expect to See
- Opelka hit 19 aces in Round 1, including 7 in the first set alone. Expect similar output through his first four service games.
- Nakashima will aim returns at the body to cut down the angle, then work Opelka’s backhand with depth to extend baseline points.
- In his last three matches, Opelka’s first-serve percentage dropped from 72% in set one to 63% in set two, so Nakashima should see more second serves mid-match.
- If Nakashima breaks serve in the second set, he’s in control; he’s 12–2 on grass when winning set two after splitting the first.
Betting Takeaway: Fade the Power, Back the Form
Opelka has the solid edge to take the first set. Why? Because his serve patterns are the least predictable in the opening stretch. If he gets in front, Nakashima live at plus money is definitely worth a look.
The ace total over (20.5) is still the best angle! Opelka usually covers most of the number if it goes past two sets, and Nakashima contributes enough to push it over.
Our Final Score Prediction: Nakashima bests Opelka in 4 close sets
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