San Jose Earthquakes vs. LA Galaxy Prediction & Betting Picks (June 28, 2025)
The California Clasico is back, and it’s gonna be a good one! MLS rivals San Jose Earthquakes and the LA Galaxy are playing at Stanford Stadium on June 28 in what’s usually one of the most unpredictable fixtures on the Major League Soccer calendar.
San Jose is coming off a 2–1 win over Portland and has taken seven points from their last four matches. They’ve closed ranks defensively and found a really reliable outlet in Amahl Pellegrino, who’s scored in back-to-back games.
The LA Galaxy still hasn’t won a game this season, and they just blew a 2–0 lead to Austin and sit bottom of the West with the league’s worst goal differential.
Both teams can score, so we expect to see goals, but LA really wants to finally get a win. But can they do it against a team like San Jose when they’ve been playing far better soccer?
Let’s see what the numbers say! Keep scrolling for both teams’ recent form, stats, the latest betting odds, and our four best bets for this California Clasico.
Match Details
- Fixture: San Jose Earthquakes (7-5-7) vs. LA Galaxy (1-5-13)
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 28, 10:30 pm ET
- Stadium: Stanford Stadium (neutral zone but has a California rival atmosphere)
- Attendance: Usually draws around 35,000–50,000 fans
- Recent Head-to-Head: SJ won the last game (1‑0, May 28) and has the momentum
- Extra Activities: There will be a post-match 1,000-drone light show that celebrates the rivalry history/early Fourth of July
Current Form
How have the Galaxy and the Earthquakes been playing lately? Look below for all of the stats!
LA Galaxy
- 0–11–4 this season, at the very bottom of the Western Conference
- Averaging under 1 goal per game, conceding more than 2
San Jose Earthquakes
- 5–6–4 (19 pts), unbeaten in their last 7 (4 wins, 3 draws)
- Scoring above 2 goals per match, but still allowing plenty at the back
Statistical Insights
What do the numbers tell us about San Jose vs. the LA Galaxy going into Saturday night’s game? Look below!
High-Scoring History in the California Clásico
- 8 of the last 10 games between the two teams finished with over 2.5 total goals.
- Both have scored in 9 of those 10 matches, and goals usually come from both ends.
San Jose’s Offensive Surge
- The Earthquakes are averaging just over 2 goals per game across their last 7 matches.
- They’ve posted an expected goals (xG) figure above 1.8 in 5 of their last 6; their attack is finding decent openings.
- But they’ve also allowed goals in six straight games, so BTTS has been a common outcome.
LA Galaxy’s Defensive Woes
- Galaxy has allowed at least 2 goals in 10 out of their 14 matches this season.
- They’re giving up the most shots on target per game in MLS right now.
- Even when they’re on neutral ground, they haven’t had a clean sheet in their last 9 appearances.
Late Goals a Trend
- 65% of the goals in this rivalry since 2020 have come after the 55th minute.
- Midfield lines stay compact through the first half, but games usually open up between the 60th and 75th as both teams rotate fresh attackers and chase results.
Discipline and Fouls
- This matchup always gets nasty. San Jose and LA Galaxy both rank top six in fouls per game, and their past six clashes have averaged 4.2 yellow cards, and there’s at least one reckless challenge almost every time.
- Tactical fouls, cynical tackles, and boots left in on 50/50s are all part of how they play each other. You’ll see barking at the ref, and it’ll be a scrappy game.
Latest Betting Odds
If you’re planning to wager on this match, here are the latest betting odds and lines posted on ESPN BET:
Betting Odds and Lines
Moneyline (3-way)
- San Jose: -115
- Draw: +300
- LA Galaxy: +260
Spread
- San Jose: -0.5 (-120)
- LA Galaxy: +0.5 (-115)
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
- Over: -105
- Under: -125
Our Best Bets
Okay, so for this game, we’ve chosen the four best bets that have the most value and how confident we are about each one!
1. San Jose (+0.5 Asian Handicap)
Our Confidence Leveling: HIGH
This one is backed up by recent form and momentum. San Jose hasn’t lost in seven straight, and Galaxy hasn’t beaten anyone this season.
2. Over 2.5 goals
Our Confidence Level: MEDIUM-HIGH
This matchup trends high-scoring; 8 of the last 10 have hit at least three goals, and both teams lean into offense more than defense.
3. Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Our Confidence Level: MEDIUM
The Galaxy usually finds one even when they lose, and San Jose has conceded in six straight. BTTS has hit in 9 of the last 10 between them!
4. Draw @ +250 to +310
Our Confidence Level: MEDIUM
The numbers line up for this bet: predictive models show there is value in a draw, and this rivalry has produced close finishes even when the form differs.
Watch & Learn: What to Look For
- Can San Jose exploit LA’s disorganized back line? The Earthquakes have been slicing and dicing up defenses in the last few weeks, and the Galaxy hasn’t shown that they have the discipline to hold off that kind of pressure.
- Will LA finally win one? Eleven losses and counting say no, but San Jose’s leaky back line might give them a chance.
- Midfield collapse is a real risk. If Galaxy can’t hold the middle, like we saw in three of their last four, they’ll get overrun. San Jose’s front three won’t waste any time taking advantage of the gaps.
Clásico Prediction: What to Expect and Why
Final Score Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes 2 – 1 LA Galaxy
San Jose has been finishing chances, pushing the pace, and exploiting defensive mismatches. LA can’t say the same; they’ve looked really flat in the buildup and totally disorganized at the back.
If Galaxy can’t stay compact or track runners through the middle, they’re going to give up high-percentage looks all night.
This fixture usually comes with goals, and the numbers back that up; BTTS and overs have hit in their most recent games.
The Best angle? San Jose on a handicap, and there’s plenty of value on the total goals market, too!
