Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks (June 27, 2025)
Let’s play ball! Who’s meeting on the diamond? Well, we’ve got the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the Baltimore Orioles in an AL East battle, and they are on opposite spectrums of the ballgame at the moment.
The Rays have been trending upward, but the Orioles are in a downward spiral in the standings. It’s a road game for Tampa, and Baltimore has the home-field advantage. Can they take advantage of Camden Yards in the opener of a three-game series?
Ryan Pepiot will be starting for the Rays, and the Orioles are sending out Tomoyuki Sugano. Tampa is a few games out of the last AL Wild Card spot and needs every win to stay in contention. The Orioles are trying to stay ahead of the Red Sox so that they don’t finish dead last in the division.
Will Tampa stay on their streak, or will Baltimore get the win on their home turf? Keep scrolling to see the latest betting odds, starting pitcher breakdowns, team form and trends, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (46-35) vs. Baltimore Orioles (34-46)
- Date & Time: Friday, June 27, at 7:05 pm ET
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
- How To Watch: Apple TV+
- Weather Forecast: Mostly cloudy and humid with a couple of showers around 75°
Prediction Breakdown
57.5%
42.5%
According to GamblingSite.com
Betting Odds & Market Info
If you’re planning on playing this one, here are the latest odds and lines via BetMGM:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Rays | -1.5 (+135) | -120 | Over 9 (-105) |
Orioles | +1.5 (-160) | +100 | Under 9 (-115) |
Starting Pitchers
Who’s first up on the hill for the Rays and the Orioles? Look below!
Ryan Pepiot (TB)
- Record (W-L): 5-6
- ERA: 3.04
- WHIP: 1.10
- Key Notes: 91 K over 94⅔ IP; career 2.79 ERA vs. BAL; struck out 11 in 8 IP on June 16
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)
- Record (W-L): 5-4
- ERA: 3.55
- WHIP: 1.21
- Key Notes: First-ever start vs. Rays; hasn’t reached 5 IP in his last 3 appearances
Team Form & Recent Trends
The Rays have won three in a row; they swept Kansas City and scored at least four runs in each game. They’re averaging around 4.7 runs per game over their last five and look really good at the plate.
The Orioles are 34–46 and still sitting last in the AL East. They’re coming off a 7–0 shutout loss to Texas and averaging under 4 runs per game this past week. Rotation depth has been (and still is) a big problem, as the short starts pile up.
In their last series, Tampa beat Baltimore 7–1 on June 16 behind Pepiot, and then outscored them again 12–8 two days later.
Our Best Bets
There are three spots we’re looking at for this matchup in terms of what we feel are the best bets.
| Pick | Odds | Our Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay –1.5 | +135 | Medium–High: Pepiot’s track record and TB’s recent scoring advantage suggest it’ll be a multi-run win |
Over 9 | -105 | Medium: Recent 12–8 and 7–1 matchups point to another high-scoring game |
Rays ML | -120 | Medium: This is a lower risk option if you’re not 100% sold on the run line |
Smart Betting Tips
Wanna bet smart? Of course you do! Make sure to do the following before you place your wagers.
- Monitor the weather: As of now, the forecast says mid‑70s, and there is no rain expected
- Watch Line movement: Look for any changes on the ML or the over/under during the lineup release.
- Prop angle: There’s a high strikeout potential for this game: Pepiot and Sugano combined for 141 K in their combined starts this year, so check out K props or team strikeouts for some side action!
Our Rays vs. Orioles Wrap-Up & Picks
Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 6, Baltimore Orioles 3
We are backing the Rays. Why? Because Ryan Pepiot went eight innings against Baltimore less than two weeks ago and struck out 11 without giving up anything until the late innings. His numbers against the Orioles (2.79 ERA in his career) confirm that. Tampa’s lineup has scored 24 runs in their last five games and hasn’t needed to hit home runs to get there. They’ve been stacking up base hits and forcing long innings out of opposing starters.
The Orioles haven’t cleared four runs in any of their last five games. Sugano hasn’t made it through five innings in three straight outings, and that’s left their bullpen covering 14+ innings in four days. And that’s not a good scenario against a Rays team that draws walks and extends at-bats!
Betting Recap
- Rays –1.5 (Medium–High Confidence)
- Over 8.5 Runs (Medium Confidence)
- Rays ML (Medium Confidence for safer play)
The smartest bet tip? Think about pairing ML + Over for an SGP with a decent payout!
