Inter Miami CF vs. Palmeiras Prediction & Betting Preview (June 23, 2025)
Inter Miami and Palmeiras have both secured their knockout spots, but Monday’s result? It will decide who finishes at the tippy top of Group A. Palmeiras leads the group with six points from two game wins. Inter Miami is number four after a 2–1 win over Porto, where Lionel Messi got the win from a free kick, but defensive lapses almost gave the game away.
Placement isn’t the only thing on the line with this game; Messi goes into the match with nine goals in Club World Cup history, which is only one behind Cristiano Ronaldo’s all-time mark!
Miami will be sans Ian Fray at the back, and they’ve let 11 into the net in their last 12 matches. Palmeiras haven’t been beaten yet in this tournament and haven’t been behind in either of their two games.
Who will be victorious? And will Messi tie up the goat’s Club World Cup goal record? Keep scrolling to see all of the details; we’ve got stats, betting odds and lines, and our choices for the best bets!
Match Details
- Matchup: Inter Miami CF vs. Palmeiras
- Date & Time: Monday, June 23, at 9:00 pm ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
- How to Watch: In the U.S., you can catch it on DAZN and TBS. Fans in the U.K. can stream it on Channel 5; Canadians, viewers in Australia, and Japan can also watch for free on DAZN
Betting Odds & Lines
Investing some scratch in this match? Here are the latest betting odds and line via DraftKings:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Inter Miami: +400
- Draw: +140
- Palmeiras: +115
Spread
- Inter Miami –0.5 (-145)
- Palmeiras +0.5 (+105)
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (+130)
- Under 2.5 (-165)
What’s at Stake
What are they playing for? A lot, actually!
Palmeiras have won both of their matches and sit at the top of the group with six points. Inter Miami has four after a win and a draw. If Miami wins this match? They’ll be in first place. If it ends in a draw or a loss, Palmeiras will take the group.
First place comes with a way bigger payout and a different quarterfinal matchup. It’s not really make-or-break for either team, but it absolutely affects the bracket and how much money they take home from the tournament.
And then there’s the Messi factor. The beloved footballer has nine career goals in the Club World Cup. If he scores once? He’s dead even with Ronaldo’s record. And if he scores twice, he passes him. That possibility will definitely affect how Miami manages the final third if they’re down a goal or pushing late.
It’s also the only group match between a South American champion and a roster that’s been built around Messi. The result won’t change how the leagues are seen, but both clubs will want to show that they belong in this bracket!
Team Form & Matchup Analysis
Inter Miami haven’t been up against a team in this group who defends with the kind of discipline that Palmeiras has. If they get stuck in their own half for long periods? They’ll be exposed.
Inter Miami CF
They beat Porto 2–1 with a Messi free kick, but gave up way too much ground in the second half and almost dropped points. Ian Fray’s injury has forced changes in the back line, and it’s been unstable ever since; only one shutout in their last 12 matches. The attack has bailed them out, but they haven’t looked really reliable when they don’t have the ball.
Palmeiras
Palmeiras haven’t let anyone score a goal in the group. They’ve controlled both of their matches without overextending and haven’t let opponents play through the middle. The win over Al Ahly wasn’t amazing in terms of the score, but they never looked like they were in over their heads. This is their third Club World Cup in four years, and it shows in how they manage each phase. They don’t waste movement, and they don’t take unnecessary risks.
Our Best Bets
Ok, now that we’ve gotten all of the technical soccer (or footie, for the Brits) out of the way, it’s time for our best bets! Here are the three that we think are worth your while:
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Under 2.5 Goals | Structured match; Palmeiras rarely open up games, and Inter Miami will likely sit deeper without Fray. | High |
Both Teams to Score – YES | Messi can always produce a big moment, and Palmeiras aren’t immune to mistakes when they’re pressed. | Medium |
Palmeiras ML (+110) | They’ve looked more balanced through two matches and haven’t allowed a lot of space in the final third. | Medium |
X‑Factors to Watch
Messi is one goal shy of matching Ronaldo’s all-time Club World Cup total! If Inter Miami gets a set piece just outside the box, or even a soft foul near the corner of the area, everything will stand still. It’ll be a historic moment for Messi and everyone rooting for him.
This tournament now uses head-to-head results before goal difference, so whoever wins this game takes the group. If it’s a draw, Palmeiras still finishes top on goal differential unless something crazy happens in the Porto–Al Ahly match.
Hard Rock Stadium will be packed with Miami fans, and the noise will be on another level if Messi picks up the ball in midfield and starts driving at defenders. Palmeiras have played in the Copa Libertadores finals, but the tempo changes really fast when the crowd is reacting to every single Messi step-over and pass!
Final Prediction: Messi Magic or Brazilian Brilliance?
Palmeiras have looked like the more stable team on both sides of the ball. Why? Because they shut down passing lanes early and don’t give up any space around the penalty area. Inter Miami still has Messi, but without Fray? Their back line looks easier to pull apart, and they have trouble generating anything through the middle; most of their chances come from set pieces or Messi isolating a defender near the edge of the box.
Palmeiras don’t rush chances; they hold onto the ball, press in short bursts, and wait for their opponents to make mistakes. If they score, it’s likely to be in the second half, once Inter Miami’s midfield starts dragging and the back line gets pulled out of position.
Top Betting Picks
- Under 2.5 Total Goals (High Confidence)
- Palmeiras Moneyline or Draw No Bet (Medium Confidence)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (Medium Confidence)
Final Score Prediction: Palmeiras 1 – 0 Inter Miami
Palmeiras plays on its own terms. They don’t rush forward, but when an opening comes? They are deliberate and composed. Inter Miami will need a big moment from Messi, whether that’s a free kick or a quick slip pass that catches the back line out. 1–0 feels like the most realistic outcome!
All picks are for entertainment purposes only. Please bet responsibly and within your means.
