Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Betting Picks (June 20, 2025)
Jacob deGrom has the ball on Friday night at PNC Park, and the Rangers are looking to square up their record behind him. They’re hovering below .500 and looking for consistency behind deGrom, who’s pitched into the sixth in three straight starts and is trending upward in velocity and strikeouts since he was put back into the rotation.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been hitting much; only 9 runs during their last four games, and will bring in Mike Burrows, who’s still working back into form after missing all of 2024 after elbow reconstruction surgery. He’s made a few short outings but hasn’t gone past five innings, and Texas has too much contact and patience, so he’ll be on a short leash.
Keep scrolling to see how the pitchers compare, team form and stats, the betting odds and lines, and the two best bets we’ve picked just for you!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Rangers (36-39) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (29-46)
- Date & Time: Friday, June 20, first pitch at 6:40 pm ET
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
- TV Channel: SportsNet PT and CW33
- Weather: The temperature will be in the mid‑80s with clear skies
Prediction Breakdown
65.3%
34.7%
According to GamblingSite.com
Starting Pitchers
Who will be throwing the first pitches for the Rangers and the Pirates? Here’s who:
Who’s throwing tonight? These are the pitchers who will be on the hill first:
Texas: Jacob deGrom (RHP)
- Record: 6–2
- ERA: 2.19 | WHIP: 0.91
- Strikeouts: 80 in approximately 82 innings
- Recent form: Has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 11 straight outings
Pittsburgh: Mike Burrows (RHP)
- Record: 1–1
- ERA: 4.24 | WHIP: 1.33
- Strikeouts: Around 25 in roughly 23 innings
- Recent form: Roughly a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 appearances
Team Form & Stats
Texas is pulling wins with steady pitching; Pittsburgh hasn’t matched pace on offense.
- Rangers: Averaging 3.6 runs per game; team ERA sits at 3.19
- Pirates: Scoring just 3.2 runs per game (lowest in MLB); team ERA up to 3.74
- Last 10: Texas has taken 7 wins; Pittsburgh has dropped 6 of its last 8
Matchups to Watch
What are we watching out for in the game? The following:
- deGrom vs. Pittsburgh’s lineup: He’s held his opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 11 straight outings. The Pirates are still close to the bottom of MLB in scoring and haven’t been able to hit much of anything.
- Pirates vs. high-velocity pitching: Fastballs over 96 mph have been a big problem; Pittsburgh’s contact rate drops off a cliff. If they don’t reach base in the first few innings, it doesn’t look good for the Pirates.
- Late-inning bullpen comparison: Texas relievers have allowed 1 run or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games. Pittsburgh’s relief corps has surrendered leads in 3 of its previous 6.
- Home field factor: PNC Park hasn’t helped the Pirates; they’re 19–19 at home and averaging under 3 runs per game in that stretch.
Injury & Availability Updates
Here’s who’s injured and the latest roster availability for this one:
Rangers
- Josh Smith (UTL): Smith is listed as day-to-day with a left hamstring problem.
- Chris Martin (RP): Also day-to-day with right shoulder fatigue.
Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds (OF): He’s on the paternity list but is expected back later this week.
- Colin Holderman (RP): Holderman is on the IL with a right thumb inflammation.
- Tim Mayza (RP): Mayza is on the 60-day IL with a lat strain.
- Justin Lawrence (RP): Also on the 60-day IL due to elbow inflammation in his right arm.
Betting Odds Breakdown
Thinking about betting on this one? Here are the latest odds and lines according to DraftKings:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Rangers | -1.5 (-110) | -194 | Over 8 (-106) |
Pirates | +1.5 (-110) | +158 | Under 8 (-114) |
Our Best Bets
This isn’t a fair fight. DeGrom’s on the hill, the Pirates can’t seem to get their bats going, and the Rangers have covered this number more often than not when he starts. Because of those factors, here are the two best bets and why!
Rangers -1.5 Run Line | Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
- deGrom has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 straight starts and averages over 1 K per inning
- Pirates have scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 8 games
- Texas has covered the run line in 4 of deGrom’s last 5 outings
- The Rangers’ batters usually break through in later innings, especially when it’s against weaker middle-relief
Under 8 Total Runs | Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
- deGrom usually works 6+ innings and neutralizes scoring
- Burrows has a ~1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
- Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom in OBP and SLG
- A cooler night weather and PNC’s ballpark dimensions are good to pitchers
What to Expect: Great Pitching, Not Many Big Hits
Final Score Prediction: Rangers 4, Pirates 1
Texas has the obvious pitching advantage with deGrom on the hill. Why? As we said, he’s allowed only 14 earned runs across his last 72 innings and hasn’t given up more than five hits in a game since May.
Pittsburgh’s lineup is ranked bottom-five in batting average and hitting. They’ve had a tough time with hard-throwing right-handers and haven’t scored more than three runs in a game in over a week. Burrows has posted a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts, but he hasn’t been up against a top-10 offense like Texas. If the Rangers get runners on base in the early innings? It won’t even be close.
Best Bet Recap
- Rangers –1.5
- Under 7.5
- Lean: If deGrom handles his usual workload? Texas won’t have any trouble closing this one out!
