Thunder vs. Pacers Game 6 Prediction & Betting Picks (June 19, 2025)
One more win. That’s all it’ll take for the Oklahoma City Thunder to be crowned the NBA champs for the first time since the franchise moved to OKC. And it’s because of Jalen Williams. More on that in a bit.
The Thunder beat the Pacers 120-109 in Game 5 and are now ahead 3-2 in the series. The Pacers
Back to Jalen. The third-year forward scored a playoff career-high 40 points, carrying Oklahoma City to another Finals win. He’s now put up at least 26 three games in a row. His scoring explosion stalled multiple Indiana surges with baskets that stopped the Pacers from getting any real traction.
But none loomed larger than his three-pointer with 8:06 left in the fourth. Seconds earlier, Pascal Siakam had cut down Oklahoma City’s lead to 95–93, which gave flashbacks of the Thunder’s Game 1 meltdown that handed Indiana a series opener win.
Siakam drove hard to the rim but couldn’t finish through traffic. Wallace grabbed the rebound and kicked it back out. The ball found Williams on the right wing, and he buried it. Then he drilled a 3, which pushed their lead another 5 points, and a steal and layup from Cason Wallace made it 100-97.
From that point on? Indiana never got back in range. Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, who was slowed down by a calf injury, finished with only 10 points and couldn’t play the way the Pacers needed him to.
Game 6 is up next, and the Pacers will be on home court. If they don’t win this one, it’s all over for Indy. We’ve got all you need to know about the do-or-die game: betting odds, our best bets, and who we think will win!
Game Details & Stakes
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
- Series Status: OKC Leads 3-2
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 19, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Where to Watch (U.S.): ABC (national broadcast); Stream on ABC app or ABC.com, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FuboTV, Sling TV, and DIRECTV STREAM, and TNT Sports / Discovery+
Prediction Breakdown
54.7%
45.3%
According to GamblingSite.com
Key Storylines
Below is what’s front and center going into Game 6, and why Indiana’s in deep you-know-what.
- Tyrese Haliburton’s Health: Haliburton can’t move the way that he needs to. He scored 4 points and didn’t attempt a single shot in the fourth quarter. Every possession started with him giving the ball up early, avoiding contact, and drifting through sets. If it’s pain from his calf, stiffness, or both, he’s not putting any pressure on the defense, and that takes the entire heart out of Indiana’s halfcourt game.
- OKC’s Defensive Dominance: The Thunder have forced 20 turnovers in the series by attacking passing lanes, crowding the paint, and switching across four spots. Lu Dort has made Haliburton super uncomfortable, Wallace has been glued to Indiana’s shooters, and Caruso’s timing on help defense has killed multiple possessions before they could get going.
- Depth and Role Players: The Thunder’s bench is holding its ground and changing swinging quarters. In Game 5, Wallace grabbed a contested rebound, hit a corner three, and came up with a steal; all in one run. Wiggins fought through contact on both ends and blew up two Pacers’ actions. Indiana’s bench has been limited to McConnell keeping pace in transition, and Mathurin hitting contested looks that haven’t changed much.
OKC is getting more stops, winning the second-chance battles, and forcing Indiana into making less-than-stellar shots. Unless Haliburton changes how he’s playing in the first quarter (yes, the first, not the fourth), this ends in six.
Matchup Spotlight
We’re watching three things in Game 6 that have shaped the series so far. And if the Pacers can’t change any of them? They’re homeward bound.
Gilgeous-Alexander is getting downhill whenever he wants; he’s scoring via contact, forcing double teams, and dictating how Indiana defends possessions. Haliburton looks like he’s in pain, and that means he’s not creating space, not taking the shots that he normally would, and hasn’t been able to put pressure on the defense since Game 2. If that keeps up, Indiana’s offense will stay one-dimensional.
Holmgren has erased layups, disrupted post touches, and forced Indiana into rushed floaters or off-balance midrange attempts. Siakam has found openings only when he faces up outside the lane and drives early. If Turner isn’t spacing the floor or slipping behind the defense? OKC has absolutely no reason to leave the interior.
The Thunder have been aggressive on the perimeter, jumping out on shooters and recovering in rotation without giving up clean looks. Indiana is 9-for-33 on corner threes over the last three games. If that number doesn’t get better, OKC won’t have to change anything. They’ll keep squeezing driving lanes and force Indiana into contested jumpers late in the shot clock.
Betting Odds (Updated June 19)
Time to talk numbers! If you’re planning to bet on this one, here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel, along with betting trends!
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
OKC Thunder | -6.5 (-106) | -250 | Over 221.5 (-110) |
IND Pacers | +6.5 (-114) | +205 | Under 221.5 (-110) |
Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 5–2 ATS vs. Indiana this season
- The Thunder have had a really hard time with ATS on the road during the playoffs
- Pacers have covered 3 straight elimination games
- 4 out of 5 Finals games have gone Under the posted total
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Where do we think the value is in Game 6? Look below for our three best bets plus a prop that’s worth a look before the lines change!
Thunder -230 | Our Confidence Level: High
Oklahoma City has the defensive matchup advantage, the healthier roster, and the track record in closeout spots. They’ve ended every series without needing a seventh game.
Thunder -5 ATS | Our Confidence Level: Moderate-High
All of the sportsbooks favor OKC to cover the spread. Their road ATS record isn’t 100% reliable, but given the current matchup, bench impact, and Indiana’s injuries? This number is definitely in range.
Over 224.5 Total Points | Our Confidence Level: Moderate
Even though most of the Finals games have gone under, both teams still average high combined totals during the postseason. Multiple books and sports analysts are leaning toward the over in Game 6, given late-game fouling risk and an uptick in free throws.
Prop Bet – Jalen Williams Over 23.5 Points | Our Confidence Level: Moderate
Jalen has scored 25 or more in three straight and keeps seeing a lot of volume late in games. Analysts and books have flagged this as one of the top Game 6 player props!
Pacers’ Last Stand or Thunder’s Coronation?
Oklahoma City has outplayed Indiana in back-to-back games. They’ve defended better, gotten more out of their bench, and forced the Pacers into rushed decisions on most possessions. Jalen Williams has been the MVP; he’s scoring every which way and taking over when the offense slows down.
SGA hasn’t had to carry the whole load, and that’s the point! OKC’s rotation has held up across six or seven players, and they’ve been really organized at both ends. Indiana hasn’t had solutions. Haliburton looks limited, and outside of a few solid stretches from Siakam and McConnell, the offense hasn’t held up.
Unless Haliburton can get back to breaking down defenders off the dribble and forcing help, the Pacers are dunzo. Right now, too many of their possessions end without pressure on the defense. The Thunder don’t need to play a perfect game to close this out. All they have to do is play like they have in the last two.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 119, Pacers 110
We think OKC wins this series 4–2 and become the 2025 NBA champs.
Ready to put our top bets to the test? Head over to one of our best rated betting sites to find the most competitive odds and quick payouts on your winnings.
