Oregon State vs. Louisville Prediction (June 17, 2025) – CWS Elimination Game
It’s win or go home in Omaha. Oregon State and Louisville meet again on the ball field after a 4–3 game earlier in the tourney; the Beavers scored late and broke the tie to win. But this is an elimination game, so whoever loses this one packs their bags and goes home. A coveted spot in Omaha is on the line, so the margin for error in this rematch is basically nonexistent.
Louisville didn’t play their best in the last game against Oregon; they left too many runners on, missed a key relay, and couldn’t close the ninth. Oregon State didn’t overpower them by any means, but they came through when it counted. That’s been their style of play during the tournament: take what’s given to them, and not give anything back. The Cardinals have better hitters, but control issues and some defensive lapses have made things a lot harder than they should be.
Who’s pitching? What’s the bullpen setup like? Who should you bet on, and what are our best bets that have the most value for the CWS elimination game? We’ll answer all of that and more below!
Game Details
- Matchup: Oregon State vs. Louisville
- Date & Time: Tuesday, June 17, at 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Charles Schwab Field, Omaha
- Broadcast: Live on ESPN
- Stakes: Win-and-you’re-in elimination at the Men’s College World Series
Form & Momentum
With elimination hanging over their ball caps, neither team can afford to have another flat outing. Oregon State and Louisville have both shown moments of greatness, but inconsistency on the mound and missed chances at the plate have put them here. The game will hinge on bullpen execution and which lineup handles high-pressure situations better.
Oregon State
The Beavers squeaked out a win over Louisville to start the tournament, but they weren’t able to build on it. Against Coastal Carolina, they struggled to make hard contact and didn’t cash in when they had runners on. Their strength lies in discipline and defensive positioning, but they’ll need more impact hits early in counts so they won’t get buried in the later innings.
Louisville
Louisville’s offense has power and speed, but it’s wasted a lot of opportunities by forcing plays and chasing pitches outside the zone. On the mound, Patrick Forbes has the tools but hasn’t strung together a lot of clean outings. If he struggles to locate again, they’ll have to reach into their bullpen earlier than they planned to, and that’s been a big issue in their recent losses.
Main Matchups to Watch
The game will turn on which starter can hold it together once the lineups turn over, and which middle-of-the-order hitters come through when the bases aren’t empty.
Pitching Duel
- Oregon State – Dax Whitney: Freshman right-hander with a 3.66 ERA, 111 strikeouts to 36 walks; attacks the zone and limits hard contact
- Louisville – Patrick Forbes: First-round talent with a power fastball; has tightened up his command and gone deeper into games in recent starts
Offensive X-Factors
- Oregon State: Aiva Arquette (.354, 18 HR) and Gavin Turley (.346, 19 HR) are two reliable power threats with really strong at-bat discipline
- Louisville: Eddie King Jr. (.362, 17 HR), backed by a lineup that can pressure defenses with speed and early-count swings
Betting Angles & Latest Odds
If you’re betting on this one, here are the betting angles and latest odds and lines via DraftKings:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Oregon State | -1.5 (-130) | -195 | Over 10.5 (-115) |
Louisville | +1.5 (+100) | +150 | Under 10.5 (-115) |
Moneyline Edge
- Oregon State ~66% implied chance (–200 on DK; +145 Louisville underdog)
- Best bet: Oregon State ML (–200) — backed by better pitching, stronger late-game options, and the benefit of having already beaten Louisville once in this bracket.
Player Props
- Dax Whitney strikeouts: Facing Louisville’s aggressive hitters, his K projection is really strong.
- Eddie King Jr. prop: With a .362 average and 17 HRs, he’s a candidate for a long ball or multi-hit game.
Best Bets for Oregon State vs. Louisville
Hmmm, what are we looking at in terms of value? We landed on the following four best bets for this game!
Oregon State Moneyline (–195)
- Took the first matchup 4–3
- Whitney recorded 9 strikeouts and kept traffic off the bases
- Oregon State has more reliable late-inning options
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Under 10.5 Total Runs (–115)
- The first game stayed at 7 total runs
- Both starters kept the ball in the yard and worked into the sixth
- Run scoring tends to dip in elimination games due to tighter pitch selection and slower baserunning decisions
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Dax Whitney Over Strikeouts (Est. 6.5 Ks)
- Already struck out 9 in this matchup
- Louisville chases fastballs up and doesn’t walk much
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Louisville Team Total Under 4.5
- Only got 3 runs in their first meeting with Oregon
- Oregon State’s pitching staff has handled the later innings really well
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Prediction Recap: Who Moves On in Omaha?
We think this’ll be an almost identical game as their first meeting, aka low scoring, long at-bats, and not much room for mistakes. Dax Whitney held it together longer than Forbes in their last matchup, and Oregon State has been stronger on the mound throughout the tournament.
Final Score Prediction: Oregon State 5 – Louisville 3
Their bullpen has done a better job handling traffic; there were no free passes in the late innings, and they’ve been able to finish them without letting rallies build up. Louisville hasn’t managed that same control under pressure.
If Oregon State gets a good hit from Arquette or Turley with runners on, that could be the turning point. They have better pitching and arms behind Whitney, so they’re in a really good position to advance.
