2025 Belmont Stakes Preview & Best Bets
Saratoga always hosts the Belmont Stakes, and although there isn’t a Triple Crown in play, the field of horses will still be a sight to behold.
We’ve got the Derby winner. We’ve got the Preakness winner. And they’re running against each other in the final jewel of the series. Sovereignty and Journalism, the two horses who’ve already proven that they belong, will now meet at a shorter distance, on a different track, and with new challengers nipping at their hooves.
Keep scrolling for all of the Saratoga Springs details, including who’s running, who’s out in front, and our picks for the best bets!
Event Details: What You Need to Know
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 7, 2025, at 7:04 pm ET
- Location: Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Springs, NY
- Distance: 1¼ miles (shortened due to Belmont Park renovations)
- Purse: $2 million
- Broadcast: FOX and the FOX Sports app
The Contenders: Who’s in the Running?
There’s a ton of depth here. We’ve got headline-making horses, and horses with different running styles, proven back-class, and some big barns backing them.
- Sovereignty (2-1): Derby winner. Trained by Bill Mott. Skipped the Preakness by design to keep him fresh for this race.
- Journalism (8-5): Winner of the Preakness. Trained by Michael McCarthy. The only one of the group to run all three Triple Crown races, and he’s kept his form beautifully.
- Baeza (4-1): Third in the Derby, running on well late. John Shirreffs brings him in with a steady hand and a good prep.
- Rodriguez (6-1): Missed the Derby with a bruised foot but looked great in training at Saratoga. Previously took the Wood Memorial with ease.
- Hill Road (10-1): Won the Peter Pan with a clean trip and has a stalking style that fits this field.
- Heart of Honor (30-1): Brit-bred longshot with not much North American form, but connections are confident that he’ll be able to handle the distance.
- Crudo (15-1): Comes from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Might appreciate the cutback in the trip.
- Uncaged (30-1): Also from Pletcher. Hard to gauge, as he’s never been up against a field that’s this strong.
Race Analysis: Breaking Down the Field
The distance drop to 1¼ miles levels the playing field a little bit, but Saratoga’s deep surface can still penalize the horses who move too early.
- Sovereignty likes to settle in early and come with one sustained run. He’ll need a clean trip and a bit of pace up front to get the setup that he wants.
- Journalism is more flexible; he’s shown he can press the pace or take back and close. That kind of versatility gives his rider more options in a big field.
- Baeza has a grinding, late-run style. If it turns into a dogfight in the final furlong, he’ll be right up there.
- Rodriguez could go forward early to stay out of trouble. He has enough tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and pounce on the turn for home.
- Hill Road is the wild card; he’ll be within striking range but might need others to come back to him.
Best Bets: Our Top Picks
Who do we have for best bets? Look below!
- Win Bet: Rodriguez (6-1): Skipped the earlier legs of the Triple Crown and comes in prepared for this race. His prep was strong, and he’s been gliding over the Saratoga surface.
- Exacta Box: Sovereignty / Journalism: Two proven closers with the class and timing to outkick the rest down the stretch.
- Trifecta: Sovereignty / Rodriguez / Baeza: A trio that combines strong finishes, tactical position, and endurance.
- Longshot Play: Hill Road (10-1): If the pace collapses up front, he’ll be in a good position to make a late run and catch what’s left.
Betting Tips: How to Wager Smart
Belmont Day draws a lot of attention, which means there’s more money in the pools and bigger changes in the odds! Concentrate on the structure, don’t wager with only your emotions, and follow the betting tips below:
- Decide your budget ahead of time. Set a limit and treat it like it’s a fixed cost, not something that you’d change mid-card.
- Don’t rely on one outcome. Use combos, like win bets backed by exactas or trifectas! It gives you extra ways to stay in the race.
- Pay attention to how the board moves late. When a horse from a proven barn starts taking late money, there’s usually a good reason behind it.
The best odds aren’t always posted early, so wait until the market settles and act when the price lines up with your read on the race! Check out our recommendations for the top horse betting apps to find the latest odds.
Festival Highlights: Not Just a Horse Race
Saratoga Springs is a gorgeous place, and the horse race isn’t the only thing happening! It’s a full slate of events that are all tied to New York’s racing tradition, food, fashion, and entertainment. There are a lot of fun events around the track leading up to the Belmont if you want to make a trip out of it!
June 4–8: The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival
- New York Showcase Day features six $200,000 stakes for state-breds.
- Commemorative Hat Giveaway for the first 10,000 attendees.
- “Belmont on Broadway” Concert with the Gin Blossoms and Uprooted in downtown Saratoga.
- Steeplechase Racing highlighted by the Grade 1 Beverly R. Steinman.
- Grade II and Grade III Stakes, like the Intercontinental and Poker Stakes.
- Top-Level Friday Card including the Acorn, Ogden Phipps, New York Stakes, Just a Game, and the Belmont Gold Cup.
- On-Site Tastings from Redemption Bourbon, Mionetto Prosecco, and other trackside vendors.
- Belmont Stakes Day Headliners: Metropolitan Handicap, Jaipur, Manhattan, Woody Stephens.
- West Point Band Performances with live music and a parachute display during the anthem.
- Fashion Photo Contest hosted near the Jockey Silks Porch.
- Track Giveaway of limited-edition enamel pins for early arrivals.
- Live Music Throughout the Week, including acts like Nymbis and Ill Funk on the Purdy’s Music Stage.
- Food & Drink: There’s a bespoke “Bel-Mint Stakes” ice cream flavor that’ll be available trackside; it’s a minty vanilla with chocolate chips and bourbon swirl. That sounds fattenin,g but in a delicious way!
Not bad for a race that’s built around a 2,000-pound animal and two minutes of thundering hooves tearing up the dirt.
Final Verdict: Our Belmont Stakes 2025 Predictions
You might think it is, but Belmont isn’t a two-horse race. Sovereignty got the job done at Churchill, and Journalism has held it together during a hard spring. But Rodriguez isn’t here by accident; he skipped the first two for a reason and has been working like this was always the target.
Our Final Prediction
Sovereignty passed on the Preakness and has been pointed here with no interruption. His gallops at Saratoga have looked graceful and smooth, his energy’s been consistent, and nothing in his prep suggests any kind of regression. If he finds position early and avoids the traffic, he’s the one most likely to finish in front!
– Win Bet: Sovereignty at 8-5 odds; he sat out the middle leg and comes in off a steady prep. He’s handled Saratoga well, looked strong in the mornings, and has the right running style for this group.
– Exacta Box: Sovereignty / Journalism: Reliable closers with strong resumes and riders who know how to time a move.
– Trifecta: Sovereignty / Rodriguez / Baeza: Balanced mix of tactical runners and late pace.
– Longshot Play: Hill Road (10-1): Stalks well, doesn’t waste energy, and can move past fading runners if the front bunch stretches out too early.
– Keep your eye on the board! Late movement can signal interest from connections who know where their horse stands.
– Mix your plays. A straight win bet isn’t always the best option; using exactas or trifectas will help you cover more ground.
– Set your number early. Decide what you’re spending, and don’t move the goalposts once you start betting.
