NBA Finals Game 1: Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction – June 5, 2025

By: Alyssa Waller | Last Updated: June 4, 2025

Who woulda thunk that we’d have a Midwest mashup in the NBA finals? Not us! And certainly not the fans.

The general online sentiment? No one wants to see a Pacers vs Thunder final. People wanted to see at least one big franchise team. The Knicks would’ve fit that bill. They would’ve settled for the Wolves. But they got what they got, and it’s Indiana against OKC.

Unexpected? Yup. The fans of the teams are elated, so that’s something! And we think it’ll be a good series with two squads with completely different styles of ball play. We’re excited, even if a lot of bball fans wanted it to go another way.

So, who do we think is the frontrunner for taking home the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy? We have some thoughts, so keep reading for everything you need to know about the opener!

Game Details

Here’s when, where, and how to watch Game 1:

Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Series Status: Game 1 of the NBA Finals
Date & Time: Thursday, June 5, at 8:30 pm ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Broadcast: ABC

Team Overviews

First up is how the Finals matchup lines compare! Look below for the team’s regular and postseason records, playoff runs, and the players who are pivotal in getting them to this point.

Indiana Pacers

Regular Season Record: 50-32
Playoff Path: Beat the Knicks 4–2 in the Eastern Conference Finals

Key Players

Tyrese Haliburton: Averaging 9.2 assists per game, and keeps the offense organized and efficient. He’s setting the pace and creating clean looks for everyone around him.
Pascal Siakam: Earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors with 20.2 points per game on 51.9% shooting. He’s been their most consistent player on both ends.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Regular Season Record: 68-14
Playoff Path: Knocked out the Timberwolves 4–1 in the Western Conference Finals

Key Players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: SGA is this year’s MVP and is averaging 32.7 points per game and has been the focal point of OKC’s offense during the postseason.
Jalen Williams: Named to the All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive Second Team. He’s made a huge impact on both ends, guarding top assignments and doing his part as a secondary scorer.

Head-to-Head Matchup

Oklahoma City won both regular-season games, and they didn’t have to reach for much to get it done. Their length on the perimeter disrupted Indiana’s spacing, and the Pacers had a lot of trouble getting clean looks once they were forced into late-clock possessions.

If Indiana wants to change the dynamic, it’ll need not to stand still. That means more off-ball action for Haliburton, earlier touches for Siakam, and fewer one-pass sets. OKC doesn’t give you much time to figure things out mid-possession, so the Pacers have to force movement, both theirs and the Thunder’s, right after the ball goes up.

Betting Odds & Insights

If you are gonna put some money on Game 1, here’s where the odds and lines currently sit on ESPN BET:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Pacers	+9.5 (-115)	+320	Over 231.5 (-105)
Thunder	-9.5 (-105)	-425	Under 231.5 (-115)

Point Spread: Thunder -9.5
Over/Under: 230.5 points
Moneyline: Thunder -450, Pacers +340
Series Odds: Thunder -700, Pacers +500
Finals MVP Favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Best Bets

And here is where we think the smart money is if you’re betting on this game:

Thunder -9.5 Spread – OKC’s won their last five at home by double digits. If they get clean looks early and keep Indiana from settling in? This line could cover by the third.
Over 230.5 Total Points – There aren’t grind-it-out squads; both push the pace, shoot early, and don’t waste too many possessions. Barring a cold shooting night, the over is very much in play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points – He’s averaging 32.7 in the playoffs and never gets slowed down for long. Because Indiana is short on wing defenders who can stay in front of him, this number is within reach again.

X-Factors

Yes, a lot of games are decided by the biggest names, but in this case? Two star players could cancel each other out!

Pacers: Haliburton has to keep the offense moving without letting OKC force him into bad spots. That means good decisions with the ball, being patient under pressure, and finding ways to create space, and not just for himself, but for everyone else on the court.
Thunder: Williams will be asked to take on top matchups defensively and still make an impact offensively. He doesn’t need to take over totally, just remain active, pick the right moments, and give OKC flexibility on offense and defense.

Historical Context

It’s been a long time coming for both the Pacers and the Thunder.

Indiana hasn’t made it to the Finals since 2000, when they lost to the Lakers in six games. A lot has changed since then; there’s a new front office, a new identity, and a team that’s built around speed and spacing instead of post play. For Pacers fans, this run has already broken through years of playoff stalls.

Oklahoma City is still chasing its first NBA title. The Thunder made it to the Finals in 2012 with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden, but haven’t been back until now. This version of OKC, which was built through the draft and developed in-house, feels like a new shot at history. For the franchise and its fans, it’s a chance to bring home something that’s eluded them for over 10 years.

Final Thoughts & Game 1 Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 116 – Indiana Pacers 104

The Thunder cover the spread, and the total lands just short of 230.5.

It’s gonna be an interesting series! The Pacers rely on ball movement and spacing to find shots, but Oklahoma City has been the most disciplined defensive team in the playoffs. They contest everything and force teams into second or third options. At home, they’ve pulled ahead by double digits before halftime in four of their last five.

Indiana needs to keep it within five or six by the break. If they fall behind by 10+ going into the third, they’ll have a really hard time coming back.

Betting Recap

Spread: Thunder -9.5
Total: Over 230.5
Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points

Best Bet: Thunder -9.5

The matchup favors OKC, and their track record at home speaks for itself.

Ready to place a wager on this year’s NBA Finals? See our recommendations for the top-rated betting sites to get the best odds and generous bonuses.

Alyssa Waller

Alyssa contributes sportsbook/online casino reviews, but she also stays on top of any industry news, precisely that of the sports betting market. She’s been an avid sports bettor for many years and has experienced success in growing her bankroll by striking when the iron was hot. In particular, she loves betting on football and basketball at the professional and college levels.