Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Preview & Prediction (May 26, 2025)
Minnesota! The wolves came out howling and growling in Game 3–the message was don’t play with them!
They got outplayed in back-to-back games, but on home court, they blew the place up 143-101. It was a blowout that we didn’t see coming.
Anthony Edwards looked unbothered by the pressure to get this game. He had 30 points, 9 boards, 6 assists, and didn’t even step foot on the floor in the fourth. Julius Randle bullied OKC inside, Mike Conley finally got things done, and the whole thing looked like they’d snapped out of a trance.
Ball goes up for Game 4 on Monday night, and if the Wolves come out with even half the same energy, we could be looking at a tied series going back to OKC.
We are gonna look at the latest odds, the important matchups, and where the best bets are heading into a huge night in Minneapolis!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Series Status: OKC leads 2-1
- Date & Time: Monday, May 26 at 8:30 pm ET
- Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ESPN, ESPN2
Prediction Breakdown
61.7%
38.3%
According to GamblingSite.com
Series Recap
- Game 1: Thunder 114, Timberwolves 88
- Game 2: Thunder 118, Timberwolves 103
- Game 3: Timberwolves 143, Thunder 101
Oklahoma City was strong at home and won the first two by double digits. Their ball movement, shot selection, and help defense gave Minnesota a lot of trouble on both ends. In Game 3, the Timberwolves finally did their thing. Edwards got 30, Randle controlled the paint, and the game wasn’t close after the first quarter.
Betting Odds
Look below for the latest odds via BetMGM!
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder | -3.5 (-110) | -160 | Over 218.5 (-110) |
Minnesota Timberwolves | +3.5 (-115) | +135 | Under 218.5 (-110) |
Based on our analytics and projections? The Thunder have a 61.7% chance of taking Game 4!
Key Matchups & Storylines
Game 4 will rest on two things and that’s how Oklahoma City handles Edwards, and who wins the battle inside. Look below for the important matchups we’re watching!
- Anthony Edwards vs. Thunder Defense: Edwards did whatever the heck he wanted in Game 3—30 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, and he made it look effortless. OKC didn’t have a solution when they were in transition or when he got downhill. If they can’t slow him down? The series goes 2-2.
- Frontcourt Battle: Gobert & Randle vs. Holmgren & Hartenstein: Minnesota’s frontcourt finally got going. Randle got to his spots, Gobert cleaned up around the rim, and the Wolves had control of the paint from the beginning. Holmgren and Hartenstein just couldn’t handle the physicality. That matchup has to go differently in Game 3 if the Thunder wants to win.
Coaching Adjustments
Wolves coach Chris Finch obviously switched things up in Game 3. There was more ball movement, better spacing, and earlier subs that kept the Wolves amped. Defensively, they threw extra bodies at SGA and made OKC work harder for clean looks.
OKC’s coach Mark Daigneault didn’t change much once things started going left, and the Thunder never found their groove. If they don’t want to go back home tied, they’ll need to use a different approach in Game 4.
Best Bets
If you’re betting on Game 4, look below for what we think are your best bets!
- Thunder -3.5 (-105): Oklahoma City has a good track record of regrouping after losses. And given their performance in the first two games, they have the tools to cover this spread.
- Over 218.5 Total Points (-110): The series has had high-scoring games, especially with Minnesota’s offensive surge in Game 3. Both teams have the capability to push the total over this line.
- Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 Points (-110): Edwards is the central player of Minnesota’s offense, and the probability of him having another big game? It’s good.
Prop Bets
If you’re a player markets person, there are two prop bets that look decent for Game 4!
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-115): SGA wasn’t anywhere near as involved in Game 3, but he’s still the focal point for Oklahoma City. He’s had big recovery games all season, and he’s gonna have to be more aggressive if the Thunder wants to win.
- Julius Randle Over 18.5 Points (-125): Randle put up 24 in Game 3 and did the lion’s share of his damage around the rim. If the Wolves keep feeding him and OKC doesn’t adapt inside, there’s no reason he can’t hit this number again.
Our Game 4 Prediction & Top Takeaways
At first, OKC looked like the better team. But after what we saw in Game 3? Well, that’s changed. Minnesota is not to be trifled with! Edwards took over, the frontcourt finally made a solid impact, and the Wolves were feeding off the home crowd.
But the Thunder usually handle themselves well after a loss, and they’ve undoubtedly got the talent to adjust. That being said, if they can’t slow down Edwards? They’ll be going back to OKC tied.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 114, Timberwolves 108
This one should be closer than Game 3, and the total has a really good shot of hitting again if the pace holds. We’re leaning slightly toward the Thunder, but it’s definitely not a lock.
Note: All betting odds are current as of May 26, 2025, and are subject to change. Always gamble responsibly.
