Cavaliers vs. Pacers Game 3 Preview & Predictions (May 9, 2025)
Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals is between the Cavs and the Pacers. Who’s gonna win this one? We have some thoughts…
- Series Status: IND leads 2 – 0
- Date & Time: Friday, May 9, at 7:30 pm ET
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Quick Hits
The Cava are in a really tough spot. They’ve dropped two games at home—both were close, and both were winnable. Now, they head into enemy territory needing a response before the series gets away from them. Indiana is playing loose and fearless—their lead guard is hitting game-winners like it’s a shootaround.
- Cleveland’s Situation: After two one-possession losses, the Cavs go into Game 3 with zero room left for errors. They’ve hung around, but moral victories don’t count in the end.
- Indiana’s Run: The Pacers are owning ball movement, shot-making, and Haliburton’s calm and collected decision-making. He buried the Game 2 winner with 3 seconds left and hasn’t looked phased while doing it.
- Injury Report: Garland (ankle) and Mobley (knee) are still being evaluated. Both are listed as being game-time calls, and their availability (or lack of it) will change how Cleveland handles both ends.
Betting Odds and Trends
Cleveland opened as slight favorites on the road, most likely because the market expects there to be some kind of a response. Indiana’s already taken two on the road, so don’t be surprised if that line begins to shift. Here are the current odds via ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Pacers | +9.5 (-107) | +340 | Over 229.5 (-104) |
Cavaliers | -9.5 (-107) | -450 | Under 229.5 (-110) |
Betting Lines (as of May 7)
- Spread: Cavaliers -1.5
- Over/Under: 229.5
- Moneyline: Cavs -122 | Pacers +102
Series Snapshot
all the replays that you need of Tyrese Haliburton's Game 2 gamer 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/ydtzDCT9ve
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) May 7, 2025
Indiana has obviously had the better late-game execution, which is why they’re up 2–0.
Game 1 was all about shot-making. Game 2 came down to one possession. In both matchups, the Pacers closed stronger. Cleveland’s been in it, but they just can’t seem to get the job done.
- Game 1 – Pacers 121, Cavaliers 112: Indiana lit it up from deep and controlled the game’s pace most of the game.
- Game 2 – Pacers 120, Cavaliers 119: Haliburton’s step-back three iced the win in a game that had five lead changes in the final two minutes.
- Season Series: Indiana went 3–1 against Cleveland in the regular season, and now they’ve beaten them five out of six overall this year.
Tactical Breakdown
If Cleveland wants to claw its way back into the series, it needs better decision-making and more consistent pressure on the ball. Indiana’s schooling them with spacing, pace, and poise.
Cleveland Cavaliers
They haven’t been blown out. They’ve been right there. But the Cavs haven’t dictated the pace, and they haven’t forced Indiana to get out of their rhythm. That has to change in Game 3.
- Offensive Strategy: Expect more ball-screen action to target Indiana’s drop coverage. When Cleveland gets downhill with Mitchell or Garland (if he’s active), good things happen. Too often, they’re settling for contested midrange jumpers or late-clock heaves.
- Defensive Adjustments: Haliburton’s getting into his spots without much resistance. The Cavs may need to throw more aggressive coverage at him—early traps, switches, anything that forces the ball out of his hands before he gets comfortable.
Indiana Pacers
Indiana hasn’t been trying to out-muscle Cleveland, but they have been out-thinking them. Their spacing has been clean, their timing good, and they’ve made the right read again and again.
- Offensive Highlights: Haliburton’s vision is picking Cleveland aprt, but he’s not doing it alone. Myles Turner’s hitting pick-and-pop threes, and Nesmith, Nembhard, and Hield are knocking down timely shots. Indiana’s working the ball until they find the mismatch.
- Defensive Coverage: They’re chasing shooters off the line and rotating well enough to force Cleveland into tougher looks. But they’re vulnerable at the rim, and if Cleveland starts attacking more directly, Indiana’s back line will be tested.
Best Bets
Game 3 could be the tipping point! Cleveland is the fav, but not by much, and Indiana’s clearly not bothered by it. Below is how the betting board looks heading into the game:
- Cavaliers -1.5: This isn’t a vote of confidence in Cleveland’s form—it’s a spot bet that’s based on urgency. They’ve dropped two heartbreakers, and if they don’t come out locked in from the opening tip, they’re heading for the offseason early. Expect fewer miscues, tighter rotations, and a team playing like it doesn’t have a safety net.
- Over 229.5: Both games thus far have hit the over with room to spare—233 in Game 1, 239 in Game 2. Neither side is locking things down defensively, and the tempo’s been consistent. Until we see some resistance, this number is still leaning high.
- Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points: He’s already carrying most of the scoring load, and if Garland is limited or out, Mitchell’s usage will go through the arena’s roof. He’s not only launching threes—he’s getting to the rim, drawing contact, and forcing Indiana to pick its poison.
- Tyrese Haliburton to Record a Double-Double: He’s been flirting with one all series, and if the Pacers keep hitting open looks, the assists will pile up. Haliburton has already proven that he can manage the game without forcing a thing, and that usually brings stat lines that cash props like this one.
Must-Win Mode: Game 3 Implications
FYI: All betting lines are subject to change as the game gets closer, so check the sportsbooks for updated odds! And don’t forget to gamble responsibly.
There’s no way around it: Game 3 is everything for the Cavs. No team wants to be down 0–3. It’s a hole that very few can climb out of. This is the moment where Cleveland either fights back or fades away.
What to Watch
- Garland and Mobley’s status—if either misses time, the Cavs’ lineup versatility drops quickly
- Cleveland’s game plan for Haliburton—because the current one’s not working
- Indiana’s shot selection at home—if their role players are confident, the Pacers can take control early on
Betting Edge Recap
- Cleveland -1.5: Not because they’ve earned it, but because they need it
- Over 229.5: Neither defense has slowed things down
- Mitchell points prop: He’s the player who’ll decide how long this series lasts
- Haliburton double-double: Strong value if Indiana keeps moving the ball
Think the Cavs will finally answer back? Or are the Pacers ready to go up 3–0? Either way, you should check out our favorite online sportsbooks for live lines, promos, and more before tip-off!
